Extracting max value from a TAG

[Lmn55d]

Villain is 26/21 with WTSD of 45 and AFG of 1.8 on every street. My main question is about the river bet. I think I like it.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (4 SB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

Turn: (3 BB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (5 BB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets

[cartman]

I don't think I like it--but that is probably because I am missing something. Assuming he would have 3-bet preflop with an Ace or a pair, the only hand you are going to get called with on the river that you can beat is a 7 or a 2.

By the way, I am at a total loss as to what he could have called the flop with if he doesn't have an Ace or a pocket pair, both of which as I said I assume he would have 3-bet preflop. That pretty much leaves a K or a 5 which again makes me also not understand your river bet.

Am I correct that the turn check was to induce a bluff because you figure there is a good chance that he will fold or because you didn't want to have to pay 3-bets to get to the showdown?

It seems like if you were checking the turn to induce a bluff that you should give him the chance to fire another barrel on the river.

But it also seems like if you were trying to avoid paying 3-bets to show down, that you have opened yourself up to that possibility by betting the river unless you were planning on folding to a raise. Were you folding to a raise?

Can you explaing your reasoning for your line on the turn and the river?

Thanks,
Cartman

[sthief09]

I wonder what his flop call means. most people would 3-bet an A or pocket pair preflop, so that's less likely. Kx probably plays it the same as this. he could have a hand like 7s6s that's hoping to pick up a draw or bluff at the pot.

if he's got a K and you're beat, you're going to lose 3 bets on the later streets unless you check-call twice, which is not an option. if you bet again, he might be encouraged to push you off something. if you check, he might do the same but it will only be for one bet. so I think you make more by betting. if you're beat, it's the same thing, but I think he called the flop for some reason, so I think you'll get him to bluff-raise almost as much as he'll bluff bet if you check. in the event that he does have A high he could/should check behind, so tehre's another benefit.

in situations like this where hand values are wide, generally the weakest way to play your hand is to keep betting. people bet-fold more often than they check-fold. a bet can mean a weak hand that is hoping to pick up the pot, while a check usually indicates a hand like AQ that wants a cheap showdown.

[sthief09]

I don't think you're missing anything. I like how you broke it down. check-calling twice actually doesn't seem like such a bad idea. I think it's better than a river bet since a bet will probably induce a fold by a worse hand or easily value raised by a better one. I still like betting the turn, since this is a great flop to bluff someone on

[Lmn55d]

How often do you think a high or worse calls the river? I dont want to be results oriented, but the hand he called with here surprised me.

[sthief09]

also, about the turn-river line, I do take it sometimes. two requirements for it come to mind though. first there needs to be a good chance that he peeled without much. also, if you're ahead, you need to be way ahead. if these hold true, then you often get a bet on the turn where someone would've folded. then you bet the river because there's a chance he caught a piece. this line induces some very weak folds

[sthief09]

I made another post just a second ago where I said that this line does encourage some really weak calls (though a TAG really should smell a hand like QQ). A high will certainly call. Q high shouldn't call since you'd have bet the turn with Q high, but you'll still get called occasionally. J high or worse don't call. the thing is A high should check the turn behind, costing you a bet. but when it comes down to it, A high certainly is a possibility on the river and will almost always check behind unless it's AQ

[NLSoldier]

I think its good cuz his WtSD is so high. Im assuming you were calling a raise?

[Lmn55d]

Yea I think I was. Cant reall remember though.

[sthief09]

when you underrepresent your hand like that, folding to a raise is really bad. he could think you have A high or TT and are value betting with the intention of folding.