$22 2 table Poooos..hmm, wait.

[bones]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t1300)
MP2 (t1146)
CO (t990)
Button (t1324)
SB (t450)
BB (t3210)
UTG (t1580)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t325</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls t325, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: (t800) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero pushes, Button folds.

Final Pot: t800

The pot is big already, so obviously I want to take it down. But I really don't think a K is folding here. So should I be extracting value? I don't really have to worry about draws, since I have the big draw too.

[lorinda]

You only have value if the chips go in on the flop. Your hand is much weaker if they don't.

If a CR would work then fine, but I think pushing is okay here.

Lori

Yeah I would try to extract a bit more value from this hand.

I would try to check raise all in and a free card can't really hurt you too much as your opponent is really only drawing to 2-3 outs here.

Open pushing the flop won't get a King to fold here.

[valenzuela]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah I would try to extract a bit more value from this hand.

I would try to check raise all in and a free card can't really hurt you too much as your opponent is really only drawing to 2-3 outs here.

Open pushing the flop won't get a King to fold here.

[/ QUOTE ]

so? you have 14 outs.

[helpmeout]

I'd make a small bet and call down if raised, make a larger bet if you improve depend how much he raises.

Making a large bet here is a waste because a King will call you. You dont want worse hands to fold.

You cant be worried about any worse hands drawing out on you because you have a huge draw.

Best thing that can happen is that he is on a smaller flush draw, you dont want him to fold it.

I'd probably bet around 100-200 here.

[bluefeet]

I think the push if fine. This flop is a little too dicey to expect him to hit it - post your PF raise. If a "K" calls off a forth of his stack PF...


"rrrrrrrrrrEEEET!"(sp) &lt;- that sliding of the needle across a viynl album sound you here on TV shows, signifying a sudden hault to a thought or conversation /images/graemlins/wink.gif


1 - we're going to the felt here obviously
2 - IF you're behind, he's likely calling a push (K?,AA,66)

Soooo, what other hand might we be able to extract a few chips from...that called your PF with his stack? mid-PP? Ace-gutshot? The only half-way decent draw hand is JT...this guy isn't calling PF with that.

We're basically looking at giving a free/cheap turn here for a 2-outer, or a 3-outer (cuz we ARE getting them in on the turn). I still don't like a c/r here. Again, I think he's checking behind. And we also want to charge him something...kind of the point. I could see you leading a very weak t200'ish..."damn, my Ace whiffed, i only have a grand back, fold please bitch!" lead. He just might come over top w/ his pair, he might just call anticipating a check from you on the turn, and a possible cheap showdown.

Meh.......it might be a little more fun to explore if either of you had another 300 chips or so. But I do like the thinking.

[1C5]

I like it.

[pergesu]

bet 250 on the flop and check-raise all-in on the turn (if he just calls the flop)

[1C5]

Oh, I also like a bet of 400 here, wouldn't mind if he called that.

250 is so weak that it will seem like I want a call.

[pergesu]

[ QUOTE ]
250 is so weak that it will seem like I want a call.

[/ QUOTE ]
So? It's so small that he'll call anyway. Then when you check the turn, he thinks, "Oh sweet, so he didn't want a call, he was just making a weaks stab at it" and bets for you. So you check-raise all-in. In the event that your opponent doesn't have a pulse and checks behind, you just push the river.

HOLLA

[helpmeout]

Why wouldnt you want a call?

You make money from peoples mistakes, worse hands dont have the odds to call.

A better hand is making a mistake by not raising you so why would you make large bets only to have a worse hand fold and then be a dog against a better hand?

[lorinda]

[ QUOTE ]
You make money from peoples mistakes, worse hands dont have the odds to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

In another thread you accuse someone of using bad arguments, and yet you use this statement or similar in more than one of your posts as if we always make money when our opponents make mistakes.

If you actually believe that we always make money when our opponents make mistakes, you should play ring games when it is true such a large percentage of the time that you will be operating on something that is virtually fact.

In SNGs, this philosophy is going to cost you a lot of money.

Lori

[ QUOTE ]


If you actually believe that we always make money when our opponents make mistakes, you should play ring games when it is true such a large percentage of the time that you will be operating on something that is virtually fact.

In SNGs, this philosophy is going to cost you a lot of money.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't this also true in SNG's? You still make money when your opponents make mistakes, there's just a different set of mistakes. If you'd play perfect NL cash game poker in a SNG, you'd make mistakes, because you're playing a tournament.

But if your opponents would make SNG mistakes, you would make money, right? (Like folding when they should push any two.) I was just wondering, because how ELSE are we making money, if it's not by the mistakes of our opponents?

[lorinda]

We DO make money because of the mistakes of our opponents on average, however it is also true that our opponents can make mistakes that cost us money.

Of course they make those mistakes against other people as well and cost both players money, but it is a flaw to believe that if an opponent makes a mistake then it automatically helps us.

There are many situations where an opponent folding would be correct for him and yet if he calls he costs us money.

Lori

[helpmeout]

[ QUOTE ]
You make money from peoples mistakes, worse hands dont have the odds to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Go reread TOP if you dont understand that statement.

[ QUOTE ]
In SNGs, this philosophy is going to cost you a lot of money.

[/ QUOTE ]

Great argument I'm totally convinced.

[pergesu]

[ QUOTE ]
You still make money when your opponents make mistakes

[/ QUOTE ]

Not all the time. It's entirely possible for your opponent to make a play that costs him money, and costs YOU money as well. Where does that go? To your other opponent(s). This is because of the nonlinear equity as a result of the tourney payout structure.

This is a pretty basic tournament concept. Any argument suggesting that is NOT true is going to be ripped apart by the people who know what they're talking about.

[helpmeout]

A small mistake isnt always benefitial because he can make money when he sucks out and you call additional bets.

This is only when he makes a marginal mistake though. You also have to make a larger mistake (calling large bets with the worst hand) for this to be -EV for you.

When he makes a fairly big mistake here like calling 250 with Q5o then he cannot make up the difference unless you are poor at making laydowns.

You also have many outs here so that him calling 250 with Q5o is a huge bonus for you.

You also can make extra money from future mistakes like when he makes 2 pair and fails to raise or when he calls turn and river bets with an unimproved hand.

[lorinda]

I am not talking about this individual pot, I am talking about your whole philosophy.

You are using a false premise to back up many of your posts.

Lori

[pergesu]

[ QUOTE ]
You are using a false premise to back up many of your posts.

[/ QUOTE ]
pwnt batch. ship it. sphincter says "what?"

[helpmeout]

[ QUOTE ]
You are using a false premise to back up many of your posts.

[/ QUOTE ]

What is false about it.

I dont see you making any decent argument against it.

You might as well just say you are right and I'm an idiot, thats about the quality of your responses.

[lorinda]

I am right, and you are an idiot.

Lori

[lorinda]

Let's assume that we have a hand preflop that is exactly 50-50 to win the pot against the big blind.

Using the ICM (http://sharnett.bol.ucla.edu/ICM/ICM.html) we find that if we all have 2000 chips on the bubble, we are worth the following amounts.

2000 = .25 (sb)
2000 = .25 (bb)
2000 = .25
2000 = .25 (hero)

After we push all in, we get the following values if the blinds both fold

1800 = .245
1900 = .234
2000 = .251
2300 = .273 (hero)

an increase of .023 for hero.

If the BB calls, then after the pot the stacks will be as follows if he wins.

1900 = .304
4100 = .387 (lucky coin-flipping limit ring game player)
2000 = .309

We can see that our opponent has made a mistake. Instead of accepting his 0.016 loss, he has flipped a coin to either win .137 or lose .25

However, oh no, what has happened to us.

Well, the stacks would be the same if we'd won this flip, so we would be worth a tasty .387 too.

Sadly 50% of the time we are worth 0, so our EV after being called, but before we know what would have won would be .194

That pesky mistake by the idiot blind has cost us a lot of money.

Lori

[lorinda]

Anyone who is interested in when it doesn't hold true in limit holdem should search for "Morton's Theorem"

It's a much rarer and far less useful example, but it is still a great piece of math.


Lori

[1C5]

[ QUOTE ]
Why wouldnt you want a call?

You make money from peoples mistakes, worse hands dont have the odds to call.

A better hand is making a mistake by not raising you so why would you make large bets only to have a worse hand fold and then be a dog against a better hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't want a call by a K in this hand. I would rather him fold.

[helpmeout]

I have my doubts about a K folding.

[1C5]

Me too, probably won't.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You are using a false premise to back up many of your posts.

[/ QUOTE ]

What is false about it.

I dont see you making any decent argument against it.

[/ QUOTE ]

As you get closer to the money in an SnG, many situations arise in which your opponents can make very bad mistakes that hurt you very badly. Let me offer this standard dramatic example:

4 players left.
BB:3000
Hero: 3000
button: 300
UTG: 1700

blinds 150/300. It is folded to Hero in the SB, and he pushes any-2-cards. Your opponent calls with AKs.

He has just made a terrible mistake, even if he knows you're pushing ATC.

This mistake hurts you very badly.

When you play a HU pot in a ring game, any mistakes your opponent makes can benefit only you. The equity has nowhere to go, since the other players in the game can't gain anything from one of you busting the other. In any tournament that doesn't use a winner-take-all prize structure, however (like an SnG), watching someone bust from the sidelines can make you money. So, when your opponents make mistakes in HU pots against you, it will often be the other players who reap the rewards -- at your expense.

[helpmeout]

ic but what if the other player had 1000 in chips wouldnt it be better to call with a hand likely to be 60/40 favourite giving you say a 70% chance of winning the tourny instead of about 30%.

If you are folding these big hands then you are likely to get runover. Wouldnt a smart opponent then just keep stealing knowing that you need a monster to call?

I can see the argument against calling with a marginal or even slightly favourable 55/45 hand but you gotta take a stand against frequent raisers.

BTW thanks for the example.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
ic but what if the other player had 1000 in chips wouldnt it be better to call with a hand likely to be 60/40 favourite giving you say a 70% chance of winning the tourny instead of about 30%.

If you are folding these big hands then you are likely to get runover. Wouldnt a smart opponent then just keep stealing knowing that you need a monster to call?

I can see the argument against calling with a marginal or even slightly favourable 55/45 hand but you gotta take a stand against frequent raisers.

BTW thanks for the example.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey,

even if both of the other opponents have 1000 chips, calling with AKs is still a clear mistake against an SB who is pushing any 2 cards.

a smart opponent would indeed keep stealing, and traditional wisdom says that there is nothing you can do about it. indeed, there's nothing you can do without losing $$ equity on that particular hand. so, you have to keep folding. the upside of course is that when you do catch a monster against a smart opponent, calling is HUGELY profitable.

one problem with opening up your calling range in order to "take a stand" against a smart opponent is that in many situations, you have to be willing to make some VERY unprofitable calls if you want to force your opponent into narrowing his pushing range. In the example I gave, the SB is correct to push ATC even if you call with TT+,AQ+ (the correct calling range, as far as immediate $EV goes, is TT+). But, calling with AQo is disastrous: you lose 3.6% of equity, which is more than almost any player can expect to make per tournament, on average, even at the lower buy-ins.

there's lots more to be said, but this is enough for this post.

[durron597]

I haven't read the replies in this thread yet, but:

There is a very good chance that you have the best hand and you definitely have the best draw. I see no value in pushing here, free cards don't hurt you and he is going to bet more hands than he calls a push with, and most of the hands he has that call your push you are flipping against.

In spots like this I like to bet 325 here, the same amount as your original raise; many opponents interpret such a bet as weakness and will come over the top with a wide range. If your opponent is the type that likes to take stabs at pots, then I like a check here as well.