Turn Fold

[Lmn55d]

Villain is 26/21 with AF of 1.8 on every street. Is this turn fold standard or could this be 99/TT/flush draw enough of the time?

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG caps</font>, Button calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (13 SB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG calls, Button calls.

Turn: (9.50 BB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, Button folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 12.50 BB

[cartman]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is 26/21 with AF of 1.8 on every street. Is this turn fold standard or could this be 99/TT/flush draw enough of the time?

[/ QUOTE ]

It could be, but he is sure making a convincing case that he can beat JJ. He capped you preflop and despite your checkraise on the flop he raised you on the turn. If I couldn't fold to this raise, then I think I would have checked and called one bet each on the turn and river as soon as an overcard to my JJ fell. Heads up I would bet the turn and call down since you checkraised the flop, but the check-call approach allows you to escape if button wakes up with a raise at some point and also gives you a shot at a free showdown if the river checks through (albeit at the relatively unlikely risk of a free turn card).

I definitely would have led out on the flop in the hopes that UTG would raise and drive out the button. Why is this incorrect?

Thanks,
Cartman

[Lmn55d]

I didn't lead out because I didn't think this villain would raise with a worse hand. Checking allows me to extract more value and possibly 3bet if the last guy raises PFR's autobet and maybe knock his overs out.

EDIT: Also there is some informational value in the checkraise against this player imo, more than a raise of a bet.

[Danenania]

Good fold I think. With 99/TT he just wants to get to showdown--I can't see him thinking the Q is a good card to do a free showdown raise on. Flush draw wouldn't make sense as he would want the overcall.

[Lmn55d]

by "not raising with worse hand" I mean overcards, he would likely raise with 99/TT.

[cartman]

[ QUOTE ]

EDIT: Also there is some informational value in the checkraise against this player imo, more than a raise of a bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you mean that showing so much strength on the flop allowed you to make the fold to his raise when the overcard to your JJ hit the turn?

By the way, if you don't think he would be willing to raise this flop with overcards, I would think that assessment of him would naturally lend itself to the assessment that he wouldn't pull this turn raise with a worse hand than JJ.

Is this correct?

Thanks,
Cartman

[Lmn55d]

yea the strength I showed on the flop made this turn fold a lot easier. If he had raised my flop bet I would have to call down. While I don't think he would raise the flop with overs, he might wait till the turn to protect 99/TT if he thought I would checkraise the flop with worse than that...but I doubt he thought that so its an easy fold really. Plus he might not cap with 99.