KK in BB, thoughts on all streets please

[Maulik]

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, Button calls.

Flop: (13 SB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, Button calls.

Turn: (8 BB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, Button folds, Hero calls.

River: (12 BB) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 14 BB

I only have to be correct 1/11 times to make the turn and river check/call if I'm beat? That said, I assume this is a call down situation?

[peterchi]

Since you're committing yourself to a showdown after you call his turn raise, you actually need to be good over 2/12 times, since you're planning to put in two bets from that point to show this down.

I'd fold the turn here unless he's a maniac.