My first 600 SNGs, Need some real analysis

[adam61]

I finally got through my first 600 and am looking forward to getting some pointers. I know posting stats isn't as effective as posting hands, but I feel a bit overwhelmed about what to improve in my game. These 600 are at about 320 $10+1s and 280 $20+2s. I only play about 200 a month so this is like 2.5 months of work to just get some decent aggregate data to post. I have pokertracker and SNG Tracker for every hand so if anyone wants to e-mail or PM me for more info and make suggestions I'd be happy to, but I won't clog the post with 30 PT screens. I also use SNG PT for ICM on most of these tournies, I don't make a lot of large errors but I miss opportunities I think. I try to make realistic calling ranges for opponents and it says things are profitable, but I constantly get surprised especially when I've been pushy.

Basically I'm happy I'm a positive player, I'm disciplined, I don't make huge errors, but I would guess I make constant small-medium errors that are making me a 12-15% ROI player instead of 20-25% ROI. I really am trying to get some experts to look at some aggregate numbers and point out areas that concern them. Then from there I can watch specific moves I make and post specific hands. It would basically get my improvement to the point of being in more digestable chunks. And also your overall suggestion if I should move up, down, or stay. I'm leaning towards staying even though I want to be at the $33s because I feel a little weak. I felt a lot of improvement my first 150 $11s and my first 100 or so $22s but since then I don't feel like I've improved much, largely because I don't have a lot of direction. So please give me your thoughts, if you need more info ask for it, and I certainly appreciate it.

Here's a basic cumulative profit chart with a marking where I switched to $22s.

http://www.adamthomas.org/profit1.JPG

Here's my finish distribution. My 2nd place finish concerns me but it MAY just be variance, or it may be me sucking. I feel VERY aggressive heads up.

http://www.adamthomas.org/finish1.JPG

Here's some overall Pokertracker Stats, I know it's too aggregate to be much, but posting individual stats for each limit might have made it too long, if one limit looks just WRONG I'll post that up. Thanks!

http://www.adamthomas.org/stats1.JPG

http://www.adamthomas.org/stats2.JPG

My final stats were like 12.5% ROI and 38.3% ITM over 602 tournies. I REALLY appreciate any direction you give, Thanks!

[Freudian]

Looks fine. Your finish distribution decent but you bust out in 8-10th way too often. I play significantly tighter than you are in level 1-2.

[swiftrhett]

You are doing well, and should have some confidence that you are a winning player. I would even veture to say that even if you're a losing player, with these results, you are probably the kind of person that can be a winning player with some effort.

Your 1st's and 3rd's should probably be more than your 2nd's if you're playing optimally. You appear to have had some hot streaks followed by breakeven play. I am not too excited that these results are sustainable if you keep up your current play.

Lastly, I would recommend that you stick to the $10's for at least 1000 more tournies. I guess it depends on your style, but I love 8 tabling the $10's. My ROI is so high, variance is so low, and play is so easy. It depends on your strategy and the type of person you are, but I don't see anything wrong with diciplining yourself on the $10's for a while longer.

Another point is that your ROI at the $20's appears to be roughly half of your ROI from the $10's, even with that huge $20 hot streak where you, frankly, got lucky. Why would you want to make the same hourly rate at the $20's with higher variance? A good answer might be that you want to focus on beating the $20's for 20% ROI faster, and wasting time on the 10's will slow you down.

[Ogre]

a bit of a heater between your 400-425 games?

Stick with the 22's it is easier to get 15% roi on them than 30% on the 10's i think. Also quit being so aggressive heads up. Certain people can be pushed around by going all with any hand heads up, but most cannot. Stick with Aces and PP for your pushes and mix in a few moves here and there. That being said 600 sit and gos is moderately small, but you are a winning player and should not waste your time at the 10's.

[golfcchs]

Are you playing party poker?

[adam61]

Yes Party.

[pergesu]

[ QUOTE ]
Also quit being so aggressive heads up. Certain people can be pushed around by going all with any hand heads up, but most cannot. Stick with Aces and PP for your pushes and mix in a few moves here and there.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is truly horrible advice.

He probably needs to be a lot more aggressive ITM and heads up than he normally is.

[golfcchs]

Looks pretty good. Could you mind telling me how you posted these stats from pt?

[swiftrhett]

He used "SNG Tracker" . Search for it.

[ QUOTE ]
Looks pretty good. Could you mind telling me how you posted these stats from pt?

[/ QUOTE ]

[swiftrhett]

Your reasoning is flawed. Obviously, it is easier to get 15% ROI because it's impossible to get 30% ROI pretty much at any level. I believe that it is easier to get 20% ROI at the $11's than 10% ROI at the $22's.

Also, as a personal attack, I am willing to bet that you can't get 15% ROI at the $22's, so you basically have no idea what you're talking about anyway.

[ QUOTE ]
Stick with the 22's it is easier to get 15% roi on them than 30% on the 10's i think. Also quit being so aggressive heads up. Certain people can be pushed around by going all with any hand heads up, but most cannot. Stick with Aces and PP for your pushes and mix in a few moves here and there. That being said 600 sit and gos is moderately small, but you are a winning player and should not waste your time at the 10's.

[/ QUOTE ]

[downtown]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Also quit being so aggressive heads up. Certain people can be pushed around by going all with any hand heads up, but most cannot. Stick with Aces and PP for your pushes and mix in a few moves here and there.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is truly horrible advice.

He probably needs to be a lot more aggressive ITM and heads up than he normally is.

[/ QUOTE ]

[EnderFFX]

[ QUOTE ]
Also quit being so aggressive heads up. Certain people can be pushed around by going all with any hand heads up, but most cannot. Stick with Aces and PP for your pushes and mix in a few moves here and there.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is horrible advice, if you stick to Aces and PP you are going to get killed by any sort of aggression. After 4-5 hands of doing this, your opponent will notice and start pushing more and more junk. If your opponent is weak/timid/tight, push a LOT. If your opponent is aggressive/tricky, selectively push and reraise your opponents pushes. At the lower blind levels there is a moderate amount of playing that can go on. (100-200 and lower). Above this level stealing the blnds is huge, especially when you hit the 200-400 level and there are only 20 BB on the table.

[Roland32]

[ QUOTE ]
Your reasoning is flawed. Obviously, it is easier to get 15% ROI because it's impossible to get 30% ROI pretty much at any level. I believe that it is easier to get 20% ROI at the $11's than 10% ROI at the $22's.

Also, as a personal attack, I am willing to bet that you can't get 15% ROI at the $22's, so you basically have no idea what you're talking about anyway.



[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this statement but would like to note that swift gets a hard on every time he can flame someone. 90% of all his posts contain somesort of flame

[jeffraider]

If you want some real analysis post some entire HHs.

[adam61]

I'll do that, what do you usually post in HHs, cause obviously there's some selection bias? Do you pick ones you played well, terribly, average?

[adam61]

Also I'm a bit confused if people are telling me basically "looks good" then others are suggesting moving down it's a little confusing. I'm trying to match my avg expected profit from 3/6 limit before I switched over, that probably requires decent play at the $33s to do so I don't want to sit at the $11s for 6 more months unless it's absolutely necessary. In fact with another month or two of practice I'd like to move up to the $33s but obviously I need to clean up leaks.

[helpmeout]

I'd say you are a bit too tight early on.

Play a few more hands and steal a lot more.

[Jackrabbit Slim]

Too tight early on???
He's playing insanely loose compared to many of the players around here in the early levels. 13-15% VP$IP is almost ring game statistics which is way looser than I would ever consider playing with only 800 starting chips and I think I'm not alone.

[zaphod]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd say you are a bit too tight early on.

Play a few more hands and steal a lot more.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol, this is the third post i read from you here at the one table forum, and i strongly disagree with all of them. I think it would be a big mistake to try to play any looser at the early level than what he already does. With only 800 chips you cannot afford many failed moves early on if you want any FE later on when the stealing begins.

[helpmeout]

Plenty of hands you can limp in these games that will allow you to gain a big stack when they hit.

[helpmeout]

It costs you 15 out of 800 to call with a chance to win a lot of chips.

Seems like you guys are a bunch of rocks in here.

Who do you think gets the money from the weakest players? Not the guy who sits back and waits for premiums thats for sure.

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
It costs you 15 out of 800 to call with a chance to win a lot of chips.

Seems like you guys are a bunch of rocks in here.

Who do you think gets the money from the weakest players? Not the guy who sits back and waits for premiums thats for sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't have to lose all 800 to cripple your stack. 200-300 lost in level 1-2 seriously limits what you can do later on.

And playing a lot of hands in level 1-2 means you will hit a lot of TPGK, MPTK, juicy draws etc. All of those hands have the potential to cripple your stack.

Anyone who is a winning player realize at what stage SnGs are decided and focus on staying in good shape by then. Sure, if you get amazing odds to limp with your KJs I don't mind it but someone who sees 15% of flops have to play a lot of hands where the risk is not worth it.

The original poster busts in place 8-10th over 20% of the tourneys he enters. For me it is less than half. I have a higher ITM and a higher ROI. For me it is obvious that playing more conservatively would help this player win more.

[KingMedicine]

[ QUOTE ]
Looks fine. Your finish distribution decent but you bust out in 8-10th way too often. I play significantly tighter than you are in level 1-2.

[/ QUOTE ]

the first response sums it up.
fold more in the first couple levels and you'll raise youre ITM significantly.

[jeffraider]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll do that, what do you usually post in HHs, cause obviously there's some selection bias? Do you pick ones you played well, terribly, average?

[/ QUOTE ]

Post ones you think you played well in. I mean, if you know a certain play is terrible then you don't need as much advice, but if you're making plays that you think are good but are actually leaks that's when having someone review an entire HH really pays off. I had no idea that I shouldn't be raising with ATs from MP1 until someone pointed it out to me, and I never would have asked/posted about it.

[HighestCard]

[ QUOTE ]
If your opponent is aggressive/tricky, selectively push and reraise your opponents pushes.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont see what good re-raising pushes does heads up /images/graemlins/confused.gif

/images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[pergesu]

[ QUOTE ]
It costs you 15 out of 800 to call with a chance to win a lot of chips.

Seems like you guys are a bunch of rocks in here.

Who do you think gets the money from the weakest players? Not the guy who sits back and waits for premiums thats for sure.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is true if your opponents are all playing ridiculously tight early on. Then you use that against them and steal all kinds of pots early.

But when half of your opponents will cold call a raise with Q9s, your ability to pick up cheap pots early is drastically reduced, and you just end up bleeding chips.

The most fundamental element of beating low level SNGs is taking advantage of the huge errors your opponents make on the bubble. If your opponents play in such a way earlier on that allows you to get more ammo for the bubble, then that's fantastic. Otherwise you play very solid poker that gains chips when you're a big favorite and conserves chips when you're not.

[Cactus Jack]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It costs you 15 out of 800 to call with a chance to win a lot of chips.

Seems like you guys are a bunch of rocks in here.

Who do you think gets the money from the weakest players? Not the guy who sits back and waits for premiums thats for sure.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is true if your opponents are all playing ridiculously tight early on. Then you use that against them and steal all kinds of pots early.

But when half of your opponents will cold call a raise with Q9s, your ability to pick up cheap pots early is drastically reduced, and you just end up bleeding chips.

The most fundamental element of beating low level SNGs is taking advantage of the huge errors your opponents make on the bubble. If your opponents play in such a way earlier on that allows you to get more ammo for the bubble, then that's fantastic. Otherwise you play very solid poker that gains chips when you're a big favorite and conserves chips when you're not.

[/ QUOTE ]

brilliant

CJ

[helpmeout]

But what about joe fish who likes to play agro postflop and make dumb bluffs early on. This guy wont make it near the bubble most times and neither will his calling station buddies.

So when you can limp with a suited connector or a couple of high cards and make a big pair or better. These guys will pay off.

You can then use your larger stack to push players around and make EV calls against short stacks that you wouldnt normally make if you had less chips.

Why let your opponents collect these chips and use them against you later on?

A good postflop player will surely come out ahead much more often than not by playing a slightly looser game.

[Slim Pickens]

How to improve your play: You are only playing very slightly more hands than I would preflop early on. The difference is that you're raising a whole lot of them. It's probably a leak in my game to be limping ATs from MP1 but it would be a bigger one to raise it. There is something to be said for taking advantage of situations early while the idiots are still around to give away their chips with A4o, but that's also a much more difficult and subtle concept than is necessary for low-level SnG play. You are busting early way too much, and overplaying your good-but-not-powerhouse hands may be the reason.

Should you move up: Play whatever your bankroll allows. I don't believe the claim that a player will get 2x the ROI at the 11's he will at the 22's. My ROI is actually 5% higher at the 33's than it was at the 11's, and 10% higher than at the 22's. That's over 500 at each level, which really just goes to show you that even 500 isn't nearly large enough to start making conclusions.

[Bikeboy]

I didn't coin this phrase but live by it; tight is right early on. I see more people waste their chips early on what they think is top two pair and be busted out or close to it.