Build a pot ... or play it safe

[SoCalPat]

Micro-limit game at Paradise. No strong players of note. Aggression only before the flop or at the river. I'm in the cutoff with A /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif Q /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif

Four limpers (L1, L2, L3, L4) to me. I raise, button calls, blinds fold, limpers call. Six to the flop

FLOP: 7 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif 4 /forums/images/icons/heart.gif T /forums/images/icons/club.gif

L1 checks. L2 bets, L3 folds, L4, myself and the button call, as does L1.

TURN: 3 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif

It's checked to me. What do you do?

Results to follow

[SoCalPat]

I bet out. I had raised preflop, but didn't raise the flop with two people ahead of me betting into a field of 6. I have seven clean outs to the nuts, two more for what should be the nuts, and six more for TPTK, or something close to it. And if I miss, I sure as hell ain't going to bet or call anything on the river.

So, I bet, the button, L1 and L2 call, L4 folds.

RIVER: T /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif

Almost the perfect card -- surely someone has to have 10-3 off, right? It's checked to me, I bet, the button calls, L1 raises (!?!?!?!), I re-raise, button finally gets it that he ain't in this hand, L1 calls and I take it down with the nut flush.

Was betting the turn the right thing to do, given my holdings (a big suited one-gap vs. a scattershot, uncoordinated board and no one showing off any type of hand in their betting)?

[Bob T.]

This seems to be a fairly neutral situation. You have 7 outs to the nuts, and possible 8 outs, most of which seem like they would be good based on the action so far. If you bet, and if all of your outs are good, and you get three callers, then your play has positive expected value. With this many players still in the pot, I don't think you can win unless you improve, so I guess it is up to you judgement as to whether your outs are all going to be good, and if you are going to get enough callers.

Unless I am missing something, this is really on the edge, so either betting, or checking could be right here. I guess it comes down to what you think your image is, how your opponents will react to your bet, and how you think this play will affect your image in the future.

[travisand]

I would bet the turn. You have plenty of outs with your overcards and the nut flush draw.

If you are check-raised on the turn I would call but probably discount my overcards as outs on the river as it is likely that a person check-raising this large of a field already has 1 pair beaten.

[bernie]

why is everyone figuring only 7 outs? there was no flush draw on the flop. it was turned. there's no evidence of a set out there...

id figure 9 outs plus at least if my Q hits for 3 more. maybe the A will be good if it hits.

the easy way of figuring out if you can jam this on the turn, also figuring that youre not going to buy it there, is taking the odds of making your hand against the number of players in the pot.

figuring 12 outs, youre about 3-1. 9 outs your about 4-1.

you have 4 opponents to you. 4-1. so even 9 outs is about even EV. if you have 12, a bet here is +EV.

id have bet it, called a c/r and if you miss the river, fold.

note, you may have raised the flop to try and bump the button and L1 out, just in case one has a bottom pair with an A.

just some ideas

b

[Nottom]

I'd probably bet here more often than not since there is a good chance you over cards are still good here, and nobody else seems to want the pot.

[Homer]

You have 15 potential outs, which will all probably be good. With four opponents, if you bet and get two callers it is about neutral EV. Probably, though, you will be called by at least 3 of the 4 opponents, which seems to indicate that betting is +EV. However, there is some chance, albeit small, that you will be checkraised. Also, there is a chance that not all of your outs are good, as an A or Q may make someone two-pair.

All-in-all, I think you have a bet, but that it is close.

By the way, when I read the title of your post I thought to myself, "I don't know, which play has the greater EV?" Try to think about the possible plays in the terms of EV. From the title of your post it sounds like you are considering giving up some potential EV in favor of decreasing your variance. Provided that your bankroll is sufficient for the limit you are playing, there is no reason to give up +EV bets/raises, even if they are thin.

-- Homer

[SoCalPat]

The title of my post was written as such as to not give away the answer to my scenario.

I think if you know what you're going to do at the river, and you have gobs of outs to the nuts at the turn and the field is crowded, you have to bet. The EV is too good in this case.

Now, if I had Kxd, I'd probably check along. But with seven clear-cut draws to the nuts, and two more that should also be the nuts, it was too good to pass up.

[AceHigh]

Like Homer said, it's around 0EV if you get 2 only callers, so I would tend to bet this hand. Plus it might diguise your hand a little and you might get more calls if you hit your flush.

And there might be a chance that everyone might fold.

[Louie Landale]

On the turn: []you cannot represent a pair [] no doubt cannot steal the pot especially since you have decided to check the river when you miss [] someone has a pair. You bet for value with your 15 outs if you'll get more than 2 callers. Generally save this sort of bet for players who may lay down a pair.

Althought the way the hand played out L2 is unlikely to have a full house, you should at least have given SOME consideration to going for the over-call once he raises (Oops, I read the Results).

- Louie