($22) A Fold I would have never made before

[1C5]

What do you think?
Good/bad?

Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: pCobos (800)
Seat 2: Hero (800)
Seat 3: sca123 (760)
Seat 4: shepman10 (875)
Seat 5: nezza1 (755)
Seat 6: straitr (800)
Seat 7: RascalKing88 (810)
Seat 8: neverphish (800)
Seat 9: RyNoOne (800)
Seat 10: HaywudGblome (800)
nezza1 posts small blind (10)
straitr posts big blind (15)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ 9d, 9s ]
RascalKing88 calls (15)
neverphish calls (15)
RyNoOne folds.
HaywudGblome folds.
pCobos folds.
Hero calls (15)
sca123 folds.
shepman10 folds.
nezza1 calls (5)
straitr checks.
** Dealing Flop ** : [ Qd, 2s, Th ]
nezza1 checks.
straitr checks.
RascalKing88 checks.
neverphish checks.
Hero checks.
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 9h ]
nezza1 bets (15)
straitr raises (45) to 45
RascalKing88 folds.
neverphish folds.
Hero raises (125) to 125
nezza1 calls (110)
straitr raises (305) to 350
Hero folds.
nezza1 folds.

[gumpzilla]

Unless you know these guys pretty well, I don't like it. This can easily be a slowplayed flopped two pair, AA, QJ, JT, AQ, etc. While this action certainly is consistent with a big hand, I think there are plenty of hands that your opponents might think of as big here that your set crushes.

[durron597]

Push, too often he could have QJ here, he needs two cards to a straight and even the times he doesn have KJ/J8 you have outs. Push.

[1C5]

One reason I folded is that he was in the BB (any 2 cards to fill the straight much more likely than QQ+ which would have probably been raised PF.

[Sabrazack]

Nezza could easily be on a draw here, and straitr could have TP/Overpair/twopair all of which you beat. SOme options more likely than other, but you never know in the 22$. I just saw a guy minraise my opening bets on the flop and turn and then push the river with 8 high when i bet into him. The point is, don't try to make too fancy folds. I think i can fold TPTK or an overpair here, but not a set.

[Cactus Jack]

First, I bet the flop. I've got position and nobody bet, so who's got a Q with a very weak kicker? Let's find out. Makes the turn decision easier. I'm in for $75 and can fold to a big bet, or bet big or push. Easy call here, for me. If I'm going down, it will be with a set and that board. I'd rather gamble here and get off to a very comfortable lead rather than have to gamble later with much less. (At some point, I know I'll have to gamble, and I always look for places where I have the most edge.) Here I've got a set on the button. I'm controlling this pot. I don't fear monsters under the bed here. (A raise preflop would have even been better, if less profitable.)

Just how I would have played it. Flame away, 'cause I know I may be wrong.

CJ

[1C5]

I'm not betting 99 on the flop in a tiny pot with 4 others and 2 overcards on the board.

[applejuicekid]

Did you know you were going to fold to a reraise before you raised?

[Sabrazack]

Nono, raising preflop here is not good. You want to play this for set value. Betting the flop with this many people to it is a waste of chips, even in position, don't do it.

Horrible fold. Weakt tight play at it's finest.
1. You probably have the best hand now and villain is likely on a draw
2. count the outs you have 10!!! even if opponent somehow made a hand with KJ or something you still can suck out 1/4 of the time.

[Cactus Jack]

[ QUOTE ]
Nono, raising preflop here is not good. You want to play this for set value. Betting the flop with this many people to it is a waste of chips, even in position, don't do it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Absolutely, no and argument--at least not much of one. I most likely would have called hoping to hit the set, esp since I would have to let it go if the CO or Button reraised my raise.

My weak argument for raising would be:

1)Narrow the field. Pairs play better against fewer hands.
2)If I hit my set, I don't want anyone drawing who may be helped by my 8.
3)I'm probably not going to make another dime off the limpers here anyway, if I hit my set. If I do, I may be in deep kimshi.
4)I want to control the pot, and limping here gives up much of the strength of my position.
5)If I'm reraised, I'm done and cheaper.
6)Given the way the hand went, what good is a set if you're not going to bet it? Raising gives you more info than you have at this point by not raising.
7)You guys must get better hands more often than I do. I'm a pessimistic poker player. I've gone too long without any good hands to play. In NL, pairs are good hands. The only hand that beats you preflop is a higher pair and doesn't look like their is one. I'm more likely to play a high middle pair from LP more aggressively because I cannot play low PP in EP later on. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Not that I would have raised, just pointing out why I say it might have been the preferred line of approach. Different ways of playing the same hand. Ain't that what makes Hold 'em great?

CJ

[Cactus Jack]

ps--Didn't mean to throw the thread off track. Lemme get it back on track.

1C5, why would you now fold this as you never would have before? I could only fold this on the bubble of a very large MTT. There just aren't that many monsters under the bed to fold here. Did you learn something new? Or think you did? Rather than asking for confirmation, explore your reasons why you did, would be my advice.

CJ

pps--I don't do polls because they never have a choice of "it depends" which is always the right choice. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[1C5]

Why did I fold? Just my read. 99% of the time I am not folding this but in 2000+ SnGs, this is one of the few times I thought I was beat.

And, he was nice enough to show me his hand after.

See below.

<font color="white">straitr balance 1110, bet 365, collected 675, net +310 [ Jc 8s ] [ a straight, eight to queen -- Qd,Jc,Th,9h,8s ]
</font>

[gumpzilla]

Nice job, but the times he flips over QJ you're going to feel like a bit of a chump. I still think this is a pretty easy call unless you know the opposition pretty well and can really establish that he has a straight.

[Cactus Jack]

[ QUOTE ]
Why did I fold? Just my read.

[/ QUOTE ]

Whoa. Sweet. If my reading ability was that good that early, I'd be applying for a job with the Psychic Friends Network. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

CJ

[adanthar]

PF: standard. Flop check: standard, you're done.

Turn: One guy minbets ("I have a pair or a draw or ace high or I'm a moron"). One guy makes a small raise ("I have a Q or better"). You reraise ("I have at least 2 pair"). The minbettor calls (draw) and now the raiser 4 bets.

I have not seen the results yet, but this is a good fold.

[microbet]

It's close. Straitr (nice screen name here) seems to be absolutely telling you he has the nuts, but the question is does he often enough think that 2 pair is the nuts? (or is he just nuts often enough)

Nezza1 has played strangely and it's not impossible for him/her to have the nuts either. Not likely, but people sometimes are trying to get a raise with the tiny bet.

I really don't know, and definitely want to see the results, but I think Straitr probably has the straight often enough for the fold to be good.

edit: found the results. swear i didn't cheat.

[The Don]

For one, I would definitely raise preflop to 75 with 99 two off the button.

Given your situation, I would fold. There are 4 hands that are likely in this scenario. KJ, J8, QJ, Q10. It is much more likely that he has KJ than any other one simply because he made a "I have the nuts and I want action" re-reraise. This is a common play for players thinking on very basic levels (they happen to be very common at the 22s). I would say there is at least a 70% chance that he has some form of a straight so I really can't justify putting the rest of my stack in here. Your play wasn't weak-tight, it was smart.

[Sabrazack]

You overestimate the 22$ players. Hero is probably beat here 50% of the time, still he cant fold, there is money in the pot and he has draws to a full house. There are just too many nutcases at this level for me to fold here.

[valenzuela]

give me a % of the time hero is up against a straight.

[lorinda]

[ QUOTE ]
($22) A Fold I would have never made before doing drugs

[/ QUOTE ]

FY Title.

River Quads.


Lori

[KingMedicine]

if you make this fold regularly in the 22s, youre throwing away a lot of money.

it mightve worked for you this time, but this is a horrible fold.

I'm pushing this. If villian shows a straight, I still have outs to the full house.

[DaveKForty7]

[ QUOTE ]
give me a % of the time hero is up against a straight.

[/ QUOTE ]

33%ish. Maybe a bit more?

[bluefeet]

I fold where you did. I don't see a draw "only" raising to t45 here with three still to act. If anything, he's flirting with pricing in the draws. While his initial raise could very easily be TPGK or 2-pair...either of these hands are either folding (TP could/should), pushing over your raise+the cold call behind (probable with the 2-pair), or calling (probable with the TP, maybe 2-pair). I think the straight will be found here a VAST majority of the time (even possibly a set of T's, looking to c/r the flop). I think this was a very wise fold.

[bawcerelli]

i voted fold. he is showing too much stength for just two pair.

[lorinda]

If it's a one-off read-dependent thing then well done. That's an entirely different thing.

Lori

[KingMedicine]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold where you did. I don't see a draw "only" raising to t45 here with three still to act. If anything, he's flirting with pricing in the draws. While his initial raise could very easily be TPGK or 2-pair...either of these hands are either folding (TP could/should), pushing over your raise+the cold call behind (probable with the 2-pair), or calling (probable with the TP, maybe 2-pair). I think the straight will be found here a VAST majority of the time (even possibly a set of T's, looking to c/r the flop). I think this was a very wise fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

blue, you play in the 22s?
i absolutely refuse to believe this fold could be right in the 22s. maybe IM the one giving up ROI % points.

Easy easy push.

[helpmeout]

Raise preflop, this is better than a low pair and will hold up unimproved a lot of times. Playing 99 only for set value after a couple of limpers is weak poker.

Most people limping with cheese will fold and/or check/fold the flop unimproved.

I bet the flop (15-30), if I'm ahead I dont want random overcards to call, weak Ts and gutshots will usually fold to most small bets. You also have position so you will get freecards which will sometimes result in runner runner straight or a 9 on the river.

Turn is weak as piss, he will mostly have 2 pair/22 here over a straight and even if he does have a straight you still have 10 outs for the boat.

You have shown very little strength in this hand.

[ QUOTE ]
Raise preflop, this is better than a low pair and will hold up unimproved a lot of times. Playing 99 only for set value after a couple of limpers is weak poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is it weak STT poker? I think it is not

[ QUOTE ]
Is it weak STT poker? I think it is not

[/ QUOTE ]

[helpmeout]

I'd rather have a 50% chance of adding another 60 or so chips to my stack over having a slightly better chance of picking up additional chips from a couple of players when i flop my set.

Different players have different styles. You probably play higher limits than $22, but here the players are so bad I only want to exploit edges when I have a significant edge, and the fact you'll get called &gt;50% of the time at $22 with a standard PFR to say 75.

[helpmeout]

I normally play limit 10/20+ but have been playing $22 SNGs for a bit of a change.

Yes the players suck this is why you need to push with hands like 99 against 2 random limpers.

These guys will have cheese like 64s and A7o your 99 is a big favourite against these kinds of hands especially with position.

Once you let a couple more players in you are playing for set value only, you also no longer have position so the hand value goes down. You lose a lot of equity when you do this.

Normally I'd make a 3BB raise here sometimes 4. Most times this will knock the rest of the players out.

You end up with 2 callers you win unimproved most flops with a small bet and sometimes you take it down on the turn.

If you are lucky you will have an overpair against a small pair on a flop such as 258 and one of them has A8 or such and will call decent sized bets. They will also call larger bets when you do flop a set because the pot has fewer players, they will think there TPTK is good. While if the pot is 6way then people fear big hands like 2 pair, sets and straights.

When the pot is small and there are a lot of players it is much easier to fold TPTK against a decent raise because you can be sure that better hands are likely against you. There is also nothing in the pot so why risk your stack?

[1C5]

How many $22 SnGs have you played?

Not many people in this forum play 9s here as you suggest.

[Chaostracize]

Raising here with 99 on a an STT is horrible. I'm a bad player, and even I know this.

[helpmeout]

Does it make a difference how many I have played? Will my words suddenly become worthless if I havent played 500+.

[ QUOTE ]
Not many people in this forum play 9s here as you suggest.

[/ QUOTE ]

Most people in here suck. I'm not going to trust someones word without any backup.

Now why dont you explain why raising 99 here isnt as good as calling.

[1C5]

Read my post again. I just asked how many you played. I never said raising here was terrible, I just said most people in this forum wouldn't do that.

[1C5]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise preflop, this is better than a low pair and will hold up unimproved a lot of times. Playing 99 only for set value after a couple of limpers is weak poker.

Most people limping with cheese will fold and/or check/fold the flop unimproved.

I bet the flop (15-30), if I'm ahead I dont want random overcards to call, weak Ts and gutshots will usually fold to most small bets. You also have position so you will get freecards which will sometimes result in runner runner straight or a 9 on the river.

Turn is weak as piss, he will mostly have 2 pair/22 here over a straight and even if he does have a straight you still have 10 outs for the boat.

You have shown very little strength in this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just to try to help you in the 22s a bit. Betting 15-30 (ie minbet) on the flop is terrible. What is a minbet going to tell you here? Weak 10s are not folding in a Party $22 and gutshots will call as well.

[1C5]

PS, if you raise to 45 PF here, no one is folding, they will ALL call around 90% of the time.

[helpmeout]

I dont see how how many SNGs I have played is relevant? I'm not saying this has worked for me over few hands I am saying this is the correct play IMO. I'd play 88 AJo/AQo similar as well because against weak limpers you will win without a contest.

One thing I know about poker is that you have to be aggressive when you can. Weak players call strong players take the initiative.

Against weak players you have to raise the best hand and 99 is a pretty damn good hand against 2 weak limpers with position.

[ QUOTE ]
I'd rather have a 50% chance of adding another 60 or so chips to my stack over having a slightly better chance of picking up additional chips from a couple of players when i flop my set.

[/ QUOTE ]

And I'd rather have 0 chance of losing addtional chips here. Losing chips is more -$EV than gaining chips is +$EV here, because just having some FE near the bubble is worth a lot of $, and you gain less FE by winning a few chips than you lose by losing a few chips. Your image suffers some as well, losing you more FE later.

I'm not saying the other play is terrible, of course

[helpmeout]

Having a low stack is not good I play to win not finish 3rd or 4th.

Having extra chips is much more benefitial cos then you can push people around.

Making people fear you is a much better image. I'd rather an image that says hey you arent gonna limp with cheese while I'm here.

[TheNoodleMan]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont see how how many SNGs I have played is relevant?

[/ QUOTE ]
This forum is built upon the notion that SNG play is fundementaly different from other forms of poker. You may be one hell of a 10-20 player, but this is a whole different ball game in the eyes of most of the posters in here.
<font color="white"> just trying to help, how you take it is up to you</font>

[helpmeout]

You dont need them to fold you just need those who are thinking about entering the pot after you to fold.

You raise to get the button.

[ QUOTE ]
Having a low stack is not good I play to win not finish 3rd or 4th.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's why I don't want to waste chips here. Having a moderate stack is just fine because I can still pick up blinds once they get significant and build a large stack.

[ QUOTE ]
Having extra chips is much more benefitial cos then you can push people around.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can push people around with a moderate stack, which will get big rather quickly because the blinds rise so fast.

[ QUOTE ]
Making people fear you is a much better image. I'd rather an image that says hey you arent gonna limp with cheese while I'm here.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I don't play many pots in the first 3 levels, people fear my pushes later. When I start pushing with absolute trash, I want to be known as the guy that was timid early on. I want them to think I just got a rush of cards, not that this is just how I play my hands.

[helpmeout]

Poker is poker the same skills apply.

Of course you have to change a few things but if you are a good player (not an ABCer) then you will be able to adjust.

This is $22 SNGs its low limits any good middle limit player should be able to easily adjust to any low limit form of poker.

Aggressive play wins the money in all forms of poker.

[ QUOTE ]
Aggressive play wins the money in all forms of poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

So save your chips so you can play aggressively once the blinds actually matter

[helpmeout]

Waste chips? You have 99 against 2 limpers this is not wasting chips.

You have a large edge, most times you will win this on the flop or turn.

The blinds rise quickly but you will be on the bottom end of the stack sizes if you do not push your edge in these situations.

[ QUOTE ]
If I don't play many pots in the first 3 levels, people fear my pushes later. When I start pushing with absolute trash, I want to be known as the guy that was timid early on. I want them to think I just got a rush of cards, not that this is just how I play my hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well when you got 500 in chips and I have 1500 I'll be calling down your trash raises with most aces and pairs regardless of how tight you have played.

The difference is that you need to catch a lucky break when you are called, if I get lucky I am pretty much in top 2.

Any semi decent player knows that everyone has to play looser when the blinds are higher, you arent fooling anyone here. The big stacks will already be pushing you around though and can afford to call allin bets.

[helpmeout]

The blinds always matter people still fold to 2BB raises early because they think they dont matter.

Stealing the blinds always matters.

Dont need to make big raises and risk your stack for a small amount of blinds. People are so scared that they fold to any raise.

Jesus he is raising me he could have Aces I better fold and stay out of trouble.

Position is so important here, any 2 cards are better than a random hand if you have position.

[ QUOTE ]
The blinds always matter people still fold to 2BB raises early because they think they dont matter.


[/ QUOTE ]

Not at $22

[bones]

[ QUOTE ]
Dont need to make big raises and risk your stack for a small amount of blinds. People are so scared that they fold to any raise.

Jesus he is raising me he could have Aces I better fold and stay out of trouble.

Position is so important here, any 2 cards are better than a random hand if you have position.

[/ QUOTE ]

Boy are you in for a treat.

[ QUOTE ]
The blinds always matter people still fold to 2BB raises early because they think they dont matter.

Stealing the blinds always matters.

Dont need to make big raises and risk your stack for a small amount of blinds. People are so scared that they fold to any raise.

Jesus he is raising me he could have Aces I better fold and stay out of trouble.

Position is so important here, any 2 cards are better than a random hand if you have position.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is part of the reason people were asking how many you've played

[helpmeout]

Only around 100 but its enough to see how the games are played.

Yes I do steal a lot of blinds and/or with a follow up bet on the flop.

The play is predictably passive so opponents make large mistakes by folding to small follow up bets or by making too large/small bet when they are ahead.

[pooh74]

I know there was a lot of discussion already here...but think he actually DOES have the str8 here a lot of the time...maybe close to half...this is still a push though.

Don't forget even if he has a straight you still have a 10/44 (23%) chance to outdraw him, and he is laying you 3-1 on this call. So even if you KNEW he had a straight, like he showed his straight, you have implied odds to call.

Right?

I still hate this fold, sorry.

[adanthar]

Making implied odds calls for half your stack early is not a good idea in general in a tournament situation (for one thing, those calls are nearly always reverse implied odds calls instead because you wind up calling the milking river bet). But I sure do love your 'easy push' answer.

Also, if you raise 99 OOP there on a regular basis in a tournament you are in for a lot of hurt.

[ QUOTE ]
Making implied odds calls for half your stack early is not a good idea in general in a tournament situation (for one thing, those calls are nearly always reverse implied odds calls instead because you wind up calling the milking river bet). But I sure do love your 'easy push' answer.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I know. But I was just making the useless hypothetical point that even if he flashed you his cards and showed a straight. In that situation, it would still be worth calling, but folding a river unimproved.

In reality though, calling that way's obviously a stupid idea. Just trying to point out that even if there is a good chance he has a straight here, you will improve alot of the time to beat him on the river.

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
i voted fold. he is showing too much stength for just two pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

At a level where people happily go all-in with TPGK, I don't think there is such a thing as showing too much strength postflop.

There is no way straight is the only hand villain can have here. Hero has to have a good read on villain to even start to think about folding here.

[Sabrazack]

"Most people in here suck. I'm not going to trust someones word without any backup."

Wow, are you insulting us in this thread too? You really should work on your first impressions.

Oh, raising nines here sucks, but don´t listen to me, cause i suck. And i guess so does almost everyone else in this forum since they all would say the same thing?

[helpmeout]

Most people in every 2+2 forum suck, thats life. Do you think most people in here are good players?

I'm not here to impress or make friends I'm here to get better at poker.

The point is saying something is wrong is not a convincing arguement.

[Sabrazack]

The chips you have to gain from raising are worth less than the chips you preserve by playing for set value. You should ignore small edges early on in an SNG since you will be getting larger edges later (atleast at the 22$ level). You need FE to be able to use this edge. You need chips to have FE. Raising and then getting called by 3 people and very likely flopping an underpair to atleast 1 overcard is not a fantasy of mine. You might have the best hand, but to find out you would have to risk even more of your valuable chips.

Thats my argument for not raising. And as for people sucking, well, if you want to be a d*ck thats fine by me.

[helpmeout]

99 against random trash is a large equity. These guys wont have hands like KQ or AT.

What are you waiting for? You want fold equity later with more chips, you will have more when you push these large edges.

[Sabrazack]

They could have random trash like A4, K7, Q5s and J8. All which beat you if they flop top pair and none which would have raised preflop. And none which will fold their top pair to your bet.

[helpmeout]

[ QUOTE ]
They could have random trash like A4, K7, Q5s and J8. All which beat you if they flop top pair and none which would have raised preflop. And none which will fold their top pair to your bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I will take 99 against those hands everyday of the week. They will only flop TP ~20% of the time with only one overcard to your pair.

You will win unimproved most times if you can cut down the field to only 2-3.

If there are a couple of overcards then of course you proceed with caution if your flop bet is called then you are gonna dump it most times.

[ QUOTE ]
I will take 99 against those hands everyday of the week. They will only flop TP ~20% of the time with only one overcard to your pair.

You will win unimproved most times if you can cut down the field to only 2-3.

If there are a couple of overcards then of course you proceed with caution if your flop bet is called then you are gonna dump it most times.

[/ QUOTE ]

You make some good points. However, at $22 SnGs for a learning player, a stage you have obviously mastered a while ago, who is multitabling, it is optimal to simply play mid/low pairs at this early level simply for the massive value gained by stacking someone when you flop your set.

A player who isn't as advanced as yourself good quite easily overplay a hand such as 99. If a normal player were to follow your advice; say raise preflop to 75, get 2 callers, flop overpairs, make a continuation bet of 150, get called and check/fold the hand on later streets. That player has pissed away 25% of their stack in a situation where they aren't going to win the pot a great deal more than 50% of the time.

I'm just a learning player and I'm looking for edges to increase my stack with a high degree of success. Raising 99 preflop early tourny may be an edge I'm missing(always open to criticism), but I'll happily forgo it if as these small edges in preference to exploiting huge edges created around bubble situations.

[helpmeout]

When you bet the flop you bet as little as you can on an unfavourable flop.

I wouldnt make a large bet against calling stations. 1/4-1/3rd of the pot is enough.

Its just a probe to say hey complete trash should fold now. Betting half the pot on a flop with 2 overcards is suicide against 2 players.

Bet a small amount if you get a caller then make a pathetic turn bet or check/fold (obviously if he makes a very small bet you call but most dont).

Most of the time unless they have a big hand like TP they will check/call they wont make things difficult. They want to get to a showdown they dont wanna risk their stack.

[KingMedicine]

[ QUOTE ]
Most people in every 2+2 forum suck, thats life. Do you think most people in here are good players?


[/ QUOTE ]

i personally hate the pretentious personalities of many many 2+2ers, but there is little doubt in my mind that a huge percentage of winning/pro SNG players read this (the STT) forum constantly. if you truly want to make your SNG game better, read and think about the hands rather than insult forum members.

i see you have a zillion posts (in other forums i assume) so i dont really understand your attitude.

[The Don]

Not raising PF is terrible. If you think you have the best hand and a good chance of having position then you should defintely raise preflop. It is way more +EV than limping for set value.

This is why so many players say "But I use eastbays program and I am always making the right pushes but I still am only beating the game for 10%." That can only get you so much EV, you have to play hands aggressively early when you think they are best to be truly successful.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not betting 99 on the flop in a tiny pot with 4 others and 2 overcards on the board.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would here. You have very nice position to do so. I forgot to mention this in your email, but I think betting out here takes it down most often.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
PF: standard. Flop check: standard, you're done.

Turn: One guy minbets ("I have a pair or a draw or ace high or I'm a moron"). One guy makes a small raise ("I have a Q or better"). You reraise ("I have at least 2 pair"). The minbettor calls (draw) and now the raiser 4 bets.

I have not seen the results yet, but this is a good fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Adanthar, I agree with this analysis. In particular, I agree that our hero has read villain's hole cards correctly, and that he is behind. My question to you is about odds. Pot odds and implied odds to filling up. And frankly, I think the question is whether it is worth having 670 going forward here all the time, or 445 going forward here 2/3 of the time, and 1800 here the other 1/3.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Making implied odds calls for half your stack early is not a good idea in general in a tournament situation (for one thing, those calls are nearly always reverse implied odds calls instead because you wind up calling the milking river bet). But I sure do love your 'easy push' answer.

Also, if you raise 99 OOP there on a regular basis in a tournament you are in for a lot of hurt.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, so you answered my other post (I think). Regarding the milking river bet, you're assuming villain is gonna make a smallish, callable bet (and our hero will get sucked into it?).

[adanthar]

Pretty much. Sure, if he shows you a straight on the turn you can call (I still wouldn't, actually, but if you would I won't argue) and then fold on the river. But that won't happen, because 'he could play QJ like this too' and 'well I have odds and there's the 10% chance he's bluffing so I have to call' and, well, 'I have a set'. I've made the occasional big fold in that situation; most people won't.

Speaking of reverse implied odds: You raise 99 out of position to 75-100ish and get 3 callers, who have 2-3 overcards and an underpair between them. Two overs, a straight draw and a flush draw hit on the flop and your advice is to lead for 1/3 pot, as you apparently would on most flops that 'miss' you. Congratulations, you suck at poker.

[microbet]

Who sucks? Do I have to read the whole thread?

Also, is this out of position?

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
Pretty much. Sure, if he shows you a straight on the turn you can call (I still wouldn't, actually, but if you would I won't argue) and then fold on the river. But that won't happen, because 'he could play QJ like this too' and 'well I have odds and there's the 10% chance he's bluffing so I have to call' and, well, 'I have a set'. I've made the occasional big fold in that situation; most people won't.

Speaking of reverse implied odds: You raise 99 out of position to 75-100ish and get 3 callers, who have 2-3 overcards and an underpair between them. Two overs, a straight draw and a flush draw hit on the flop and your advice is to lead for 1/3 pot, as you apparently would on most flops that 'miss' you. Congratulations, you suck at poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

Who is talking about raising here? Do you mean PF?

[adanthar]

For whatever reason I thought hero was nezza while making that post, but it doesn't really matter if you plan on betting no matter what flop comes. Yes, I meant PF.