Worth The Bluff

[directscooter]

I almost never bluff so please rip this apart if need be.
Villain (CO) is 15/4 after about 50 hands.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

CO ($89.15)
Button ($76)
Hero ($98.65)
BB ($262.82)
UTG ($95.20)
UTG+1 ($107.30)
MP1 ($106.65)
MP2 ($40)
MP3 ($97)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif. Hero posts a blind of $0.50.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 calls $1, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $4</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero (poster) calls $3.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 folds.

Flop: ($10) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets $7</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $20</font>, CO calls $13.

Turn: ($50) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, CO checks.

River: ($50) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $30</font>

[Isura]

Why didn't you bet the turn? And I would probably lead the flop. I don't see why you want to bluff this river with the probable best hand.

[directscooter]

Best hand? Guy was pretty much a rock, I check raised to rep a strong hand, figuring I could knock him off AK. Once he called, I figured I was behind and was ready to drop the hand. He checked behind so I was pretty sure it was AA, KK, QQ and looking for a cheap showdown. Then when the 9 falls I figured it was a very good bluff card.

[Isura]

[ QUOTE ]
Best hand? Guy was pretty much a rock

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't come to that conclusion after looking at 15/4 stats in just 50 hands. Did you have any more specific reads? If he's really a rock, doesn't leading the flop gain the same information for a cheaper price, and keeps the pot smaller? I'm more questioning the flop action. If you really can only put him on QQ-AA, then I don't mind the river bluff.

[directscooter]

Definitely a valid point that it was only 50 hands. Also probably could have led out although I just felt c/r would scream a better hand. There was also the small possibility we could check it through and I could take it on the turn.

I was more concerned with the river... the guy called, either I gave him too much credit to be able to make the fold, or I didn't scare him enough. He showed AA and MHING.

[yvesaint]

rockish or not hes not going to fold any river bet equal to or lower than pot since you checked the turn

[Spladle Master]

I give this a 1 out of 10.