A preflop question. Party 15/30.

[Entity]

Party $15/30. Full ring. TStoneMBD and I are having a disagreement, as always, but I don't pretend to know the answer to this one. I just know what I'd do. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

An unknown UTG raises. Immediately after us are a 19/1/.5 (5k hands) player, a 22/12/1.8 (700 hands) player, a 30/5/1.3 (3800 hands) player, a 58.4/9/.7 (101 hands) player, and a 27/0/.5 (100 hands) player. The table is generally passive and the rest of the players are unknown.

You have 99.

What's the ideal play here?

Rob

[La Brujita]

I think its fold, but I think the ev of all three choices can't be that far apart. I would say in order: fold, raise, call.

[STLantny]

Raise fold call. But my unknown is a little different than your unkown.

[JAA]

I disagree with everyone so far. I would rank the options as 1.) Reraise, 2.) Call, 3.) Fold, with calling just ahead of folding.

I however do agree that in EV terms this decision is probably failry close.

- Jags

[James282]

[ QUOTE ]
I disagree with everyone so far. I would rank the options as 1.) Reraise, 2.) Call, 3.) Fold, with calling just ahead of folding.

I however do agree that in EV terms this decision is probably failry close.

- Jags

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree.
-James

[JAA]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I disagree with everyone so far. I would rank the options as 1.) Reraise, 2.) Call, 3.) Fold, with calling just ahead of folding.

I however do agree that in EV terms this decision is probably failry close.

- Jags

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree.
-James

[/ QUOTE ]

Been here for 3 years, and I finally got one right! Maybe there is hope for me yet...

- Jags

[toss]

I agree with raise, call, fold. Been playing 15/30 long?

[jayheaps]

Raise, Fold, call.

[JAA]

Why do you choose folding over calling in this spot? There are a decent number of flops where you will not mind a preflop rasier betting into you on the flop (>90% of the time) and allowing you raise and thin the field when it comes to your liking. 99 is simply too good to be folding to a preflop raiser, even when hes is an unknown UTG.

- Jags

[TStoneMBD]

I knew that my thoughts on this issue wouldnt be supported by twoplustwo, because the standard 2p2 line for 99 against a UTG raise is to 3bet.

I was playing 15/30 and this situation arose. I actually 3bet the 99 here because that is the default, but after the hand I reconsidered and felt that I should have folded.

Now I probably don't have as much experience as you guys do at 15/30, I've only logged 12k hands there, but I give credit to an unknown raiser. I have a few million hands in my databases, so an unknown raiser is usually a fish and fish usually limp more than they raise. The party 15/30 games are very passive games imo and I would estimate that an unknown UTG raiser doesnt open with 77, and may or may not with 88. He is going to be holding a premium hand and I'm either facing overcards or a higher pair. This also doesn't take into account that someone behind me could easily have a larger pair or coldcall/cap with an Ax combination putting me in a folding proposition postflop.

I don't see value in this situation against an unknown raiser who I have no idea how he plays other than that I have position in which I have no idea how to utilize against an unknown.

[Lestat]

I fold nines here quite often. The way I look at it is this..

This is not a steal or even a showdown situation yet. It's not always enough to have UTG beat. There are 8 other players yet to be heard from --PLUS UTG might have you beat--.

There are many bad flops for 99 and if you get players behind you, the hand becomes more difficult to play in a biggish pot. I agree with you that most here will disagree with me, but I don't feel I give up too much by folding here. Of course, there are other factors to consider. If the game is overly loose or aggressive, then 99 can quickly become too much hand to fold.

[DrSavage]

[ QUOTE ]

blah blah
You have 99.
blah blah


[/ QUOTE ]

I raise.

[JAA]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold nines here quite often. The way I look at it is this..

This is not a steal or even a showdown situation yet. It's not always enough to have UTG beat. There are 8 other players yet to be heard from --PLUS UTG might have you beat--.

There are many bad flops for 99 and if you get players behind you, the hand becomes more difficult to play in a biggish pot. I agree with you that most here will disagree with me, but I don't feel I give up too much by folding here. Of course, there are other factors to consider. If the game is overly loose or aggressive, then 99 can quickly become too much hand to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

As far as the hand being "more difficult to play in a biggish pot," I would argue that your hand has enough value to overcome this difficulty, especially because you have good relative position to the preflop raiser. If the flop comes to your liking, you can raise his flop bet and make it difficult/incorrect for players acting after you to call.

You note that "if the game is overly loose nor aggressive, then 99 can quickly become too much hand to fold." The average Party game that I play in is overly loose, making folding incorrect.

I do however agree that you will not give up too much by folding here. However, giving up "not too much" in a number of situations can add up quickly.

- Jags

[1800GAMBLER]

Fold. Call. Raise.

John Feeney's book has my thoughts why.

[Lestat]

<font color="red"> The average Party game that I play in is overly loose, making folding incorrect. </font>

It could very well be that my judgement is off, but it seems to me that 3-betting 99 here in the average Party 30 game will net you on average exactly 1, maybe 2 callers (or 4-bettors).

This to me, is the worst result for 99. I either want to play the hand heads-up with position or I want as many players as possible for set equity.

I guess what I'm saying is that IF UTG does happen to have you beat, you NEED callers with 99, no? And if he has overcards, well then you're a small favorite. However, if even 1 other player comes along, then 99's chance of holding up is reduced considerably.

[golferbrent]

Options are:

Raise, Raise, Call, Fold...

With calling being only slightlly better then folding, but not much. IMO this is a raise in almost all situations, assuming you play decently post flop.

[golferbrent]

Of course you can't ignore the possiblity that you may be able to play your opponent off his hand by taking control of the hand by 3 betting.

[SA125]

In this case where being first to act after the raise is the main problem, calling is fine if there's been a lot of multi-way coldcalling.

If it's been fairly tight and raised pots are only going 3-4 way and you want to play it, you're better off going 1 more bet to get h/u. That'll keep out hands like AQs, KQs and QJs that might come along from LP for 2 cold but not 3.

I think in general 77-99 and, to an extent against an UTG raiser, TT are overrated. Slight favorites or big dogs.

They're great NL hands where you can get all your money in pf. But overrated limit hands because 1 SB and 1 BB can get overs to the river.

[MaxPower]

[ QUOTE ]
The party 15/30 games are very passive games imo

[/ QUOTE ]

Does anyone else agree with this? I'd hate to see what you consider an aggressive game.

[bernie]

Whenever I'm in a situation preflop where the raiser is directly to my right (sb is a little different), for me, it's reraise or fold.

b

[JAA]

[ QUOTE ]
<font color="red"> The average Party game that I play in is overly loose, making folding incorrect. </font>

It could very well be that my judgement is off, but it seems to me that 3-betting 99 here in the average Party 30 game will net you on average exactly 1, maybe 2 callers (or 4-bettors).

This to me, is the worst result for 99. I either want to play the hand heads-up with position or I want as many players as possible for set equity.

I guess what I'm saying is that IF UTG does happen to have you beat, you NEED callers with 99, no? And if he has overcards, well then you're a small favorite. However, if even 1 other player comes along, then 99's chance of holding up is reduced considerably.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with you more in terms of the Party $30 game. But I play primarily $15-$30 and was thinking in terms of the average $15 game.

- Jags

[tpir90036]

Wow, the responses in this thread are making me nervous about my game. Maybe I have spent too much time playing online or something. But unless I have stats on the opener and know he is tight I don't think I have ever folded 99 in this spot ever.

[B Dids]

This reminds me of one of astroglide's posts. It's one of my favorites. It was regarding AQo in a similar spot IIRC.

"I raise unless I have a reason not to".

While I don't play the 15, the table conditions described make raising seem awfully correct. Anybody calling or capping behind us has their hand pretty well defined and I think we'll be able to judge where we're at on the flop a lot.

[ QUOTE ]
I disagree with everyone so far. I would rank the options as 1.) Reraise, 2.) Call, 3.) Fold, with calling just ahead of folding.

I however do agree that in EV terms this decision is probably failry close.

- Jags


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



I agree.
-James

[/ QUOTE ]

Me too. And I don't really think it's all that close.

[ QUOTE ]
I knew that my thoughts on this issue wouldnt be supported by twoplustwo, because the standard 2p2 line for 99 against a UTG raise is to 3bet.

I was playing 15/30 and this situation arose. I actually 3bet the 99 here because that is the default, but after the hand I reconsidered and felt that I should have folded.

Now I probably don't have as much experience as you guys do at 15/30, I've only logged 12k hands there, but I give credit to an unknown raiser. I have a few million hands in my databases, so an unknown raiser is usually a fish and fish usually limp more than they raise. The party 15/30 games are very passive games imo and I would estimate that an unknown UTG raiser doesnt open with 77, and may or may not with 88. He is going to be holding a premium hand and I'm either facing overcards or a higher pair. This also doesn't take into account that someone behind me could easily have a larger pair or coldcall/cap with an Ax combination putting me in a folding proposition postflop.

I don't see value in this situation against an unknown raiser who I have no idea how he plays other than that I have position in which I have no idea how to utilize against an unknown.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is a very easy fold for me in this situation so I agree with your updated line. I would 3bet if I thought the utg raiser was a loose raiser. If he is an unknown I would fold unless I felt I would get a lot of backend callers, then I would call. And of course people here are gonna think youre weak tight with this line, but Ive accepted this image. Whats funny to me is that every time I play live with my best friend(who's a solid player), he says I'm too aggressive, but on this site everyone thinks I'm weak tight. So I say embrace the weaktight image and fold your nines.

[DeeJ]

I think it's close, which is why we're disagreeing /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I put the average unknown player at Party 15/30 raising UTG on a good hand. Sure, there are uber laggy fish and rocky ciferish rocks raising ATo (whoops) UTG but for the average player you have to put them on a higher pair (save perhaps 88?) or two overcards. Therefore, you're behind, to an average UTGer most of the time. But there's plenty of people yet to act, so I think you can call here and play a favourable flop.

So I think call, fold, raise in that order.

ok ok at the table I probably just raise /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[mplspoker]

How does calling threebets cold "define" there hand????

Even if your "read" on the unknown 15/30 player is correct, AK-AT is far more likely than TT-AA, and you have position, and you play much better than he does postflop.

Add to that the possibility that UTG is raising even lighter than that and I think the re-raise is good.

[B Dids]

[ QUOTE ]
How does calling threebets cold "define" there hand????

[/ QUOTE ]

Three of the players stats would tell you that they're basically unlikely to call 3 cold with anything, and probably aren't capping with JJ-AA, and AK. If the bad player calls, that's a little trickier, but the tight players doing so, you can narrow their range down pretty easily.