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View Full Version : $55: JJ in level 3 facing a big raise


Taraz
09-23-2005, 09:02 PM
Villain had been relatively aggressive when it was folded to him, but he had never raised this much before. Is it worth taking a possible coin flip here?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

BB (t1710)
UTG (t1430)
MP1 (t1535)
MP2 (t970)
CO (t1480)
Button (t1240)
Hero (t805)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t900</font>, HERO???
Final Pot: t975

KingDan
09-23-2005, 09:04 PM
I'd Call.

You see a lot of mid/small pp that people don't enjoy playing postflop.

Plus people often try to get cute with AA/KK.

pineapple888
09-23-2005, 09:33 PM
Villain's betting $900 into a $75 pot. Who knows what he's doing? Maybe he always does this with QQ+, or maybe he's on a bluff.

If you are better than average skill at this table (and who isn't) give up your $25 and fold. Otherwise, call.

michw
09-23-2005, 09:40 PM
I would insta-call here. He's going to have an underpair or one overcard much too often for you to fold this hand. I've only played a couple hundred 55's but I haven't seen QQ-AA played this way very often.

xJMPx
09-24-2005, 12:06 AM
I just crunched some numbers...

Based on the pot odds you need to be winning 48% of the time to make this a +EV call.

Making the assumptions that your up against:
-Over pair 40%
-Two overs 30%
-Under pair 20%
-Two unders 10%

Based on these assumptions you're winning ~48%. Like others have said, this just hasn't been played much like a big pair, so I think the above assumptions are a worst case. Therefore, on a purely EV basis, I'd call.