TT - Big pot - Double paired board

[Luke]

CO is semi-aggressive (37/12/1.0), no other reads. I'm pretty sure I made at least one mistake, maybe two.

What do you think?

Party Poker (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, 3 limps, Hero raises, SB (no read) 3-bets, we lose 2, CO calls, Hero calls.

Flop: Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB bets, we all call.

Turn: Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB bets, MP1 folds, CO calls, Hero raises, SB folds, CO calls.

River: 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
CO checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot:

[callmedonnie]

I would have raise the flop. I also might have capped pf, but that all depends. I don't like 3 bets from the sb.

[Nick Royale]

I think I would have raised the flop and bet the turn in an attempt for a free sd. Folding to any other aggression (I would have called a flop 3-bet though).

Given your line, I think betting the river is in order. You will earn calls from A-high, and may get JJ to fold.

I am also betting the flop here, betting turn, and betting river. I think from this type of opponent A high calls you down, so you have value in betting the end.

[Luke]

So you guys are all for continuing on the flop but you want to raise and call a 3-bet.

What hand range are you putting the SB after he 3-bets preflop and then bets the flop?

I'm thinking it's one that will not make many mistakes when I raise the flop, but I could be wrong.

Luke

[Luke]

My plan was to call the flop and then on the turn fold to an ace or king, call a jack, and raise any other card.

With a turn raise I figured I had a good chance of scaring away JJ or AK, hands that I'm not really going to get to fold with a flop raise/turn bet.

AA/KK/AQ are obviously not going anywhere and against them I at worst cost myself an extra big bet.

On the river, at the time of the hand, I froze up a bit and checked.

But after thinking about it, I think his hand distribution is something like this:
hands that I beat and will call - Ax (30%) Kx (10%)
hands that call and I lose to - JJ, 9x (5%)
hands that checkraise - Qx (2%)
hands that fold - busted draws, Ax/Kx sometimes, JT, etc (53%)

With that range, I certainly feel like I missed out on a value bet.

As it was, the CO had A8o and MHWG.

Thanks for the comments...

Luke

[arch12]

[ QUOTE ]
On the river, at the time of the hand, I froze up a bit and checked.

But after thinking about it, I think his hand distribution is something like this:
hands that I beat and will call - Ax (30%) Kx (10%)
hands that call and I lose to - JJ, 9x (5%)
hands that checkraise - Qx (2%)
hands that fold - busted draws, Ax/Kx sometimes, JT, etc (53%)

With that range, I certainly feel like I missed out on a value bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you assign villain the above you cannot bet the river for value. In order to bet the river, you need to be good ~55% of the time when villain calls. According to your estimates this is not the case, and thus checking behind is correct.

Raising the flop isn't a good move in my opinion. Your primary concern with this hand should be protection. A flop raise will only inflate the pot, giving gut shots and overs the correct odds to draw on. While it is extremely hard to protect here, I feel a turn raise will knock out overs and some weak draws. The added benefit to a turn raise is the likelihood of a free showdown, or the ability to fold to a 3-bet.

[Luke]

Hi SelfTaught,

I pretty much agree with your flop/turn analysis but disagree with you regarding the river:

[ QUOTE ]
order to bet the river, you need to be good ~55% of the time when villain calls

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
hands that I beat and will call - Ax (30%) Kx (10%)
hands that call and I lose to - JJ, 9x (5%)
hands that checkraise - Qx (2%)

[/ QUOTE ]


Given that read, when I am callled it's ~40:7 that I will be winning. I lose a little the few times I'm checkraised if I decide to call, but that's rare enough where it will not even come close to offset all the times I'm called and win.

Luke

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
My plan was to call the flop and then on the turn fold to an ace or king, call a jack, and raise any other card.

With a turn raise I figured I had a good chance of scaring away JJ or AK, hands that I'm not really going to get to fold with a flop raise/turn bet.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think this line commits an awfull lot of money in a pot we're likely to be beaten in. Besides you really can't count on missed overs (AK) betting the turn for you into 3 callers. When you raise this turn it's in a spot where you're most often beat. Almost certainly beat if the Q hadn't fall. Calling the flop to raise a blank (8-2) would be really bad IMO.

And holding JJ isn't that much worse than holding KK on this turn, especially given the pf action. If you think KK "are obviously not going anywhere" then "I figured I had a good chance of scaring away JJ" is false IMO.

EDIT: I've already posted my line and so far I stick to it...

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
But after thinking about it, I think his hand distribution is something like this:
hands that I beat and will call - Ax (30%) Kx (10%)
hands that call and I lose to - JJ, 9x (5%)
hands that checkraise - Qx (2%)
hands that fold - busted draws, Ax/Kx sometimes, JT, etc (53%)



[/ QUOTE ]
I didn't look at these at first, but these are definately wrong. Let's put pfr on a loose 3-betting range (being generous):
AA/KK/QQ/JJ/TT/99/AK/AQ/AJ/KQ/KJs

Of these we lose to:
AA/KK/QQ/JJ/99/AQ/KQ = 6+6+1+6+1+8+8 = 36 combos

We win against:
AK/AJ/KJs = 16+16+4 = 36 combos
Plus some of these hands should be folded before of the river or been played differantly.

Using this very loose range we're still only ahead 50% of the time. Sure, 18 of the combos we lose to will probably play this hand more aggressively before the river but many players would not have bet the turn with AK/AJ/KJs so we can say these factors cancel.

Probably it would be more appropriate to discount:

Of these we lose to:
AA/KK/QQ/JJ/99/AQ/KQ = 6+6+1+6+1+8+8 = 36 - 18/2 = 27 combos

We win against:
AK/AJ/KJs = 16+16+4 = 36/2 = 16 combos

Betting this river would be bad imo.

[Dopey]

Nick,

I agree with your line, but would like your thoughts on a few scenarios after we raise this flop.

Scenario 1: All call our flop raise. Turn is a rag and someone donk bets, Hero ?.... (Does it matter who donks?)

I really don't know where I would go here. Folding is probably in order right?

If folding is not correct then what if...

Scenario 2: All call our flop raise, Turn is a A, K, Q, or 9, and its donk bet by someone, Hero ?.... (Does it matter who donks?).

Pretty automatic fold right? A J on the turn worth a call if its the SB who donks and you are closing the action(right?) but what if its not SB and you dont close the action. I assume its still a call but its closer given the possiblity of a SB c/r (read dependent to fold, no read = call).

Scenario 3: SB 3-bets our flop raise, all call (I agree we are calling the 3-bet when we raise)

We are folding this unimproved right? What if we semi-improve - J on turn we'd call one bet open-ended, K or 8 are we calling getting likely 14-16:1 on the call. I assume we have to fold the gutshot assumming we are not good enough when we hit even given the odds we are getting.

Thoughts?

Dopey /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
Scenario 1: All call our flop raise. Turn is a rag and someone donk bets, Hero ?.... (Does it matter who donks?)

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm folding no matter what. The scenario that's closest is if the turn brings a Q and someone else than pfr. I'm still folding though, with raising as 2nd.

[ QUOTE ]
Scenario 3: SB 3-bets our flop raise, all call (I agree we are calling the 3-bet when we raise)

[/ QUOTE ]
Yup, fold UI. Calling with a oesd or gut-shot is pretty easy, we're getting 16-14:1 (I didn't check your math here)and have 4+2 outs (we're also probably closing the action). Sometimes we're drawing dead, but not often. Sometimes we'll split when hit, but there's no doubt we have more than the 3 outs required.

[Luke]

Excellent set of posts Nick. You gave me a lot to think about and some good info to improve thought process in these spots.

Thanks,

Luke