PDA

View Full Version : nfl week 3 picks


CCx
09-23-2005, 09:09 AM
NFL YTD: 5-4-1

Buffalo -2.5 vs. Atlanta - Atlanta flies all the way back across the country to face a quality defense on the road. With Vick banged up, the Falcons are left to just sit on the ropes by the boardwalk and wait for passers by to drop crumbs, and occasionally circle around a lamppost and crap on someone's head. Buffalo will respond at home after being embarassed last week in Tampa Bay, and J.P. Losman will finally complete a pass. Atlanta's offense is getting easier to stop as teams challenge Vick to pass while zeroing in on ways to stop his running abilities. In this game, he wont be running much due to his injury, and the Buffalo D will have a field day on the wobbly, wounded ducks.

Philly -8 - /images/graemlins/grin.gif A lot of people are focused on offense in this game, but defense will be the primary factor in the Eagles' big victory. Oakland has given up 23 and 30 so far to above-average offenses in KC and New England. The defensive line is a mess, the secondary is a mess, and with all of the offensive weapons the Eagles have, you should see a lot of hurt feelings in the silver and black at the Linc on Sunday. You could mention Randy Moss, but let's look at the two games last year that this Eagles secondary has played Randy Moss (with a much better QB, at that):

Playoffs, Jan. 17 at the Linc - Randy Moss, 3 catches, 51 yds (Eagles 27, Vikings 14)

Monday Night, Sept. 20 at the Linc - Randy Moss, 8 catches, 69 yds, 1 TD (Eagles 26, Vikings 17)

We won't see a performance like last week due to the fact that the Raiders do actually have players on the field attempting to play defense, but double digits is the key here.

Flame on.

Other picks:

Jacksonville +2.5 @ NYJ
Tenn/STL under 46
San Fran +6.5 vs Dallas

Fading Big Al's picks YTD 1-1

Taking Tennessee +6.5 @ STL

jedinite
09-23-2005, 11:03 AM
No concern about McNabb / TO being banged up? Last I read, McNabb might see very limited duties which probably slows this game down a lot.

What are your thoughts on the Rams under? I believe the Rams are going to be out to prove that their shaky start is a fluke and the friendly home turf adds so much speed to that team that putting up four or five touchdowns themselves isn't unlikely. Unless you just figure that's the common public perception and thus the under has the value...

CCx
09-23-2005, 11:10 AM
[ QUOTE ]
No concern about McNabb / TO being banged up? Last I read, McNabb might see very limited duties which probably slows this game down a lot.

[/ QUOTE ]

None whatsoever. McNabb will play all game unless he breaks something, or they are up by 4 TD's.

[ QUOTE ]
What are your thoughts on the Rams under? I believe the Rams are going to be out to prove that their shaky start is a fluke and the friendly home turf adds so much speed to that team that putting up four or five touchdowns themselves isn't unlikely. Unless you just figure that's the common public perception and thus the under has the value...

[/ QUOTE ]

Part of it is public perception, but this Rams offense is borderline average on whatever surface: grass, turf, clay, etc. - I just don't see the two teams combining for a huge score, not with Tenn. looking to continue playing solid defense, and Mike Martz doing a good impersonation of a coach who wants to lose his job. I dont see an offensive explosion this week, the total of the game should be right around the number posted but I'm leaning under.

jedinite
09-23-2005, 11:25 AM
Thanks - appreciate the analysis and the response...

I really like the Eagles here myself, but it wasn't enough to get in to my top picks. Barstool factor, primarily I guess...

jedinite
09-23-2005, 04:23 PM
Simmons (http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/050923) agrees with you 100%. (17-14-1 on the year)

He never has extremely in-depth analysis, but i've been following the page 2 espn picks for a long time now, and Simmons always seems solid.

CCx
09-23-2005, 10:48 PM
ADDING:

New Orleans/Minnesota OVER 44

BreakEvenPlayer
09-25-2005, 04:20 PM
Oh man. The Philly bets are always good for a laugh.

CCx
09-25-2005, 06:53 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Buffalo -2.5 vs. Atlanta
Philly -8
Jacksonville +2.5 @ NYJ
Tenn/STL under 46

ADDING: New Orleans/Minnesota OVER 44

[/ QUOTE ]

Philly 23, Oakland 20
Atlanta 24, Buffalo 16
Jacksonville 26, NYJ 20
STL 31, Tennessee 27
Minnesota 33, NO 16

Waiting for Dal/SF outcome.

[ QUOTE ]
Fading Big Al's picks YTD 1-1

Taking Tennessee +6.5 @ STL

[/ QUOTE ]

STL 31, Tennesse 27

Fading Big Al's Picks YTD: 2-1

CCx
09-25-2005, 06:54 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Oh man. The Philly bets are always good for a laugh.

[/ QUOTE ]

Great contibution.

CCx
09-25-2005, 07:59 PM
[ QUOTE ]
San Fran +6.5 vs Dallas

[/ QUOTE ]

Dallas 34, San Fran 31

CCx
09-25-2005, 08:01 PM
ADDING:

Teaser -

SD 0
Over 37 (360 wins 300)

and

Shortest TD of the game OVER 1.5 (-140)

MCS
09-25-2005, 08:05 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Shortest TD of the game OVER 1.5 (-140)

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting prop.

CCx
09-25-2005, 08:57 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Shortest TD of the game OVER 1.5 (-140)

[/ QUOTE ]

LT 1 yd TD run, first quarter.

BreakEvenPlayer
09-25-2005, 09:08 PM
Sorry.

CCx
09-25-2005, 09:09 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Sorry.

[/ QUOTE ]

Them's the breaks.

CCx
09-26-2005, 03:40 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Teaser -

SD 0
Over 37 (360 wins 300)

[/ QUOTE ]

SD 45, NYG 23

Wow, didnt even need the tease.

NFL YTD: 9-8-1