PDA

View Full Version : Is it ever worth going for a flush draw?


09-23-2005, 08:33 AM
Newbie here. OK a bare nut flush draw after the flop (with 2 card suited in the flop and say your only out is the flush) is about 0.36 probability. Assuming the other players are going to drop as soon as they see 3 of a suit, I cannot see it ever paying to stay in. Only with 4 players staying through to the river (all with say straight draws)are you ever going to collect enough money with your wins (I will do a quick analysis later if anyone is interested) to make up for your losses. And one on one you are going to lose 2:1 all the time (the starting pot is going to be irrelevantly small in PL or NL).
Do you guys go for the flush draws or should I be tossing my AH 2H xx away? It would be rather boring if one never went for a flush draw.

mshalen
09-23-2005, 09:14 AM
What levels are you playing at? If you are on the lower levels then don't believe for a second that people freeze when the board 3 suits. Most players at the lower levels are playing their cards without a thought given to what you may have. These guys can't fold a staight draw, a straight or a set, only tight thinking players will fold.

I originally thought this way too, but then I saw so many people drawing to full houses or straights on a flush board that it doesn't slow me down anymore.

09-23-2005, 09:23 AM
I think you are probably right at the lower levels though I will look hard at my stats to see if I broke even on it. Does that mean none of the good players do it at the higher levels?

09-23-2005, 09:29 AM
If you are heads up on the turn, you need 13 outs to get pot odds to call a full pot bet with a draw that will not be paid off should you hit the draw. So, calling a pot sized bet here with the naked nut flush draw is -EV if you can't make any more on the river.

Once you have more than 1 person the turn, things get trickier. There will likely be more equity in the pot to make your call worthwhile, but you may also have significantly fewer outs, as some of your flush outs may pair the board, etc.