Folding a Set, Did I get pwned?

[Mercman572]

villain is 11/4/.8 after 45 hands e

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

EDIT: his WTSD% is 10

MP1 ($74.05)
MP2 ($88.25)
MP3 ($167.55)
Hero ($154.20)
Button ($235.25)
SB ($36.60)
BB ($91.20)
UTG ($146.45)
UTG+1 ($106.15)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 calls $1, MP3 calls $1, Hero calls $1, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB (poster) completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($5) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets $1</font>, MP2 calls $1, MP3 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $7</font>, SB folds, BB calls $6, MP2 folds.

Turn: ($20) A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $10</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $35</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $60</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $115

have at me

[wdeadwyler]

Ughh, I hate folding sets in general. Why not call on turn and call on the river. He could have a str8 just as easily as a set, or even a donkish two pair.

[Mercman572]

he has 20 bucks left after that, I don't have the odds to chase a boat that probably isn't good

[wdeadwyler]

If I were villain and I actually had a set I would 3bet on flop and push the rest on any turn. Does he think rationally or would he donk a set like this?

[Mercman572]

Look at his stats, does it look like he knows how to bet? Also, my image is TAG, its unlikely I'm drawing

[wdeadwyler]

This is closer than I orginally thought. I push cuz I never fold sets but in retrospect it might not be good here. Anyone else besides me and poster?

[Allinlife]

wtf wtf wtf

you hate moneyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy

[Mercman572]

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wtf wtf wtf

you hate moneyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy

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this was very insightful. Handrange here? you think he has top 2 here or worse given weak-tight and stats? I don't.

[gol4pro]

You're getting 4.5:1 on your call by the time he min.-reraises (well almost.)

since his most likely hand is the straight, you've got more than sufficient odds to draw.

this makes me want to die.

[Allinlife]

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wtf wtf wtf

you hate moneyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy

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this was very insightful. Handrange here? you think he has top 2 here or worse given weak-tight and stats? I don't.

[/ QUOTE ]
eff hand range, think pot odd dude

[DoomSlice]

He has A8, and precicely A8.

[Rockatansky]

pwnt

[Mercman572]

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You're getting 4.5:1 on your call by the time he min.-reraises (well almost.)

since his most likely hand is the straight, you've got more than sufficient odds to draw.

this makes me want to die.

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I would essentially be calling for all of his stack with this call since he only had 30 or so behind, so its about a 55/120 as I saw it. boating the river would happen what, 1 in 4 times? admittedly, and I feel like a fool however, I didn't realize the open seat as it was filled last hand and thought villain was UTG /images/graemlins/blush.gif. realizing that A8 could be added to his hand range, but I think that turn action is still unlikely from him with that hand.

[jjacky]

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pwnt

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[Mercman572]

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pwnt

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this isn't really constructive, hand ranges and pot equity vs percentage times I'm ahead/behind is. That would be appreciated.

EDIT: and also what is the move if villain is UTG rather than BB as I mistakenly thought?

[jjacky]

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pwnt

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this isn't really constructive, hand ranges and pot equity vs percentage times I'm ahead/behind is. That would be appreciated.

[/ QUOTE ]

you are right. i apologize.

my hand range is straight, set, any 2 pair, rarely someting else (but at least 5% of the time).
pot size is just too big compared to the raise and his remaining stack that i dont think folding is even close to be the correct play.

It looks to me like he has A8.

You may have been wrong on this hand, but it takes amazing discipline to lay down a set on boards like this. -EV play, +EV discipline. No worries.

[PoBoy321]

He has 2 pair, or Ax /images/graemlins/spade.gif (possibly A6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif) but you're a sucker.

[Mercman572]

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He has 2 pair, or Ax /images/graemlins/spade.gif (possibly A6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif) but you're a sucker.

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I thought this when I reraised turn, but it bothered me so much I reviewed his other hands: he doesn't bet draws.

I am still really pissed at myself for thinking he limped UTG because it changes his hand range so dramatically. with a 10%VPIP I thought him limping UTG could only mean a set (prob 75+ percentage of time). but in the blinds you hve to include A8, a straight becomes more likely, and a higher set less likely, making a fold seem bad.

Who folds this if villain was UTG rather than BB? FWIW he claimed to have a str8 but I guess I'll never know

[subzero]

You only have 45 hands with him, so I don't put that much emphasis on his stats. He can't be that much of a donk that he'd play a set like that. Even if you put him on 7s5s (straight, inside straight-flush draw) or As6s (two-pair, nut-flush draw), you're 50% to win. I think you only need to win 18% of the time to make this call correct. Pot odds are too good. Gotta call. I think he has aces-up.

Board: 6h 4s 8s
Dead:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 49.9495 % 49.49% 00.45% { 4c4h }
Hand 2: 50.0505 % 49.60% 00.45% { As6s, 7s5s }

[Isura]

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he has 20 bucks left after that, I don't have the odds to chase a boat that probably isn't good

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I think he meant calling the $10 on the turn.

[Mercman572]

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he has 20 bucks left after that, I don't have the odds to chase a boat that probably isn't good

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I think he meant calling the $10 on the turn.

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this line might be better, I sure wish I had done that based on results, but I think it is an interesting point aside from that. I played this hand very poorly for a number of reasons, my Biggest mistake was not realizing villain was in the blind. Although the blind for that hand got up the previous hand its still not excusable. I think the whole turn line needs to be revised

Anyone mind playing along in my imagined situation and the actual hand?
imagined: villain is UTG like I originally thought, this makes my play a bad one and raising seems the wrong move on the turn. I had felt that the $1 flop raise and the 1/2 pot turn was a semi-bluff trying to get cheap cards. But given a player with a 10VPIP his hand range UTG probably DOESN'T include a FD (Ax or SC). Here a WA/WB line would have been best?

actual hand: out of the blinds villain could very easily have 2 pair or straight, or Ace high flush draw with a nice part of the board. FD w/2 pair now seems likely given the flop action and the possible turn semibluff. So now its a question of trying to build a pot or control it and risk giving a cheap card when villain is drawing. Two pair probably probably calls a re-raise and river bet, and solely based on his initial turn raise he could be semi-bluffing. Flat call, and call river? Or try to get it all in by the river?

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You only have 45 hands with him, so I don't put that much emphasis on his stats.

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[TheWorstPlayer]

I like it a lot. I play it the same.

[Mercman572]

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I like it a lot. I play it the same.

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the same as I originally did or my revised hypos?

[TheWorstPlayer]

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I like it a lot. I play it the same.

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the same as I originally did or my revised hypos?

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I never read the thread before I comment.