AK hand 200+15

[Nick B.]

I think there are two debatable streets here. Preflop I am calling 150 into a pot of 400 and I HAVE POSITION!!!! I thought that was a pretty standard call but another 2+2er I talked to thought it was close.


***** Hand History for Game 2757165720 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $200 Buy-in + $15 Entry Fee Trny:15972733 Level:2 Blinds(15/30) - Thursday, September 22, 18:38:56 EDT 2005
Table Table 13292 (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: BC_fish ( $953 )
Seat 2: ANNAMAGANDA ( $858 )
Seat 3: Shatoufee ( $1075 )
Seat 4: MainFish ( $375 )
Seat 6: Spot81 ( $2565 )
Seat 7: erpoker ( $1152 )
Seat 8: EdMoney111 ( $1310 )
Seat 9: drock56 ( $562 )
Seat 10: TEPop84 ( $1150 )
Trny:15972733 Level:2
Blinds(15/30)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to TEPop84 [ Ac Kd ]
EdMoney111 calls [30].
drock56 folds.
TEPop84 raises [100].
BC_fish folds.
ANNAMAGANDA folds.
Shatoufee folds.
MainFish folds.
Spot81 folds.
erpoker raises [220].
EdMoney111 folds.
TEPop84 calls [150].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 8d, 9d, 4d ]
erpoker is all-In [902]
TEPop84 is all-In [900]

Here is where I thought the debate was. The pot odds are pretty big almost 1.6:1 and I think my hand runs pretty well against the hands that a person could reraise out of the bb. I only have the second nut flush draw, but he didn't play it like he has the nut flush draw unless he has AdK. I can discount AdA cause I really doubt he would play it like that, even though I would be heavily [censored] if he did. Do you think the flop call was good or [censored]?

[curtains]

I think the flop call is probably correct. If he has something like KK you are almost a coin flip (I can call it a coin flip since people routinely call AK vs QQ a coinflip preflop, and the odds in this case are about the same... 44%-56%). Even against AA you will win over 1/3 times and you are a favorite against QQ.

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop I am calling 150 into a pot of 400 and I HAVE POSITION!!!! I thought that was a pretty standard call ...

I think my hand runs pretty well against the hands that a person could reraise out of the bb.

[/ QUOTE ]

What hands do you think those are?

citanul

[microbet]

I don't know, but my thoughts are he has KK or AA with no diamond or JJ or QQ with or without.

[Nick B.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Preflop I am calling 150 into a pot of 400 and I HAVE POSITION!!!! I thought that was a pretty standard call ...

I think my hand runs pretty well against the hands that a person could reraise out of the bb.

[/ QUOTE ]

What hands do you think those are?

citanul

[/ QUOTE ]

Probably TT-AA, AQ+. If he has TT_QQ I am either a coinflip or small favorite depending if he has a diamond. AQs I am a huge favorite against cause I doubt he would push if he flopped a flush. AdQx I am still a favorite over. AdAx is also unlikely to be a flop push. AA with no diamonds has me in bad shape but not awful (2-1). KK and I am a little better than a 3:2 dog.

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Preflop I am calling 150 into a pot of 400 and I HAVE POSITION!!!! I thought that was a pretty standard call ...

I think my hand runs pretty well against the hands that a person could reraise out of the bb.

[/ QUOTE ]

What hands do you think those are?

citanul

[/ QUOTE ]

Probably TT-AA, AQ+.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, that's looser than the standards that I give the random player for making a minireraise when they're IN position, and this guy did it out of position. Are my thoughts just totally way off?

citanul

[curtains]

I would expect a tighter range, but you never know when someone is being crazy.

[JJKillian]

I would also throw in 8's or 9's. My 200 experience is limited at best but I would imagine the aggressive play at this lvl is even more so than the 100's. A set here wouldn't shock me.

JJ

[Newt_Buggs]

I like the way that you played the hand.

I would probably fold pf against someone I knew was good, but based on this guys prophecy numbers he probably isn't a solid $215 player:
Games played 248
Wins 74 (29.84%)
Losses 174 (70.16%)
Average Buy-In $61.33
Players with better winning percentage 367354
Players with worse winning percentage 343648
$200 Table: 11 wins / 24 losses / 31.43% wins
$100 Table: 6 wins / 25 losses / 19.35% wins
$50 Table: 14 wins / 29 losses / 32.56% wins
$30 Table: 20 wins / 41 losses / 32.79% wins
$20 Table: 12 wins / 24 losses / 33.33% wins
$10 Table: 11 wins / 29 losses / 27.5% wins
$5 Table: 0 wins / 2 losses / 0% wins

bash prophecy all you want, but very few solid players will have the above stats and solid players are going to reraise here with stronger hands on average than worse players.

[kyro]

I play it exactly like you. I very rarely put in a third raise with AK and I think you have odds to call here.

[Nick B.]

Here is the rest of the hand.

TEPop84 is all-In.
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Kc ]
** Dealing River ** : [ Td ]
Creating Main Pot with $2345 with TEPop84
Creating Side Pot 1 with $2 with erpoker
** Summary **
Main Pot: 2345 | Side Pot 1: 2
Board: [ 8d 9d 4d Kc Td ]
erpoker balance 2, bet 1152, collected 2, lost -1150 [ Qs Qd ] [ a flush, queen high -- Qd,Td,9d,8d,4d ]
TEPop84 balance 2345, bet 1150, collected 2345, net +1195 [ Ac Kd ] [ a flush, king high with king kicker -- Kd,Td,9d,8d,4d ]

I guess by posting this, I would say it is a call because I can't really put him on the Ad and if he has a hand that doesn't contain the Ad, I am around even money or better.

[kyro]

nick, what percent of the time do you think he has AdK? I'd call here, but I bet it's around 10-20%.

[microbet]

Of course the actual hands could be a much wider range. I haven't played a $215, but I have seen some shocking hands posted.

BUT, do you think 88 or 99 makes that preflop raise?

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
Of course the actual hands could be a much wider range. I haven't played a $215, but I have seen some shocking hands posted.

BUT, do you think 88 or 99 makes that preflop raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

You can never discount anything on PartyPoker, people can do crazy things.

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Of course the actual hands could be a much wider range. I haven't played a $215, but I have seen some shocking hands posted.

BUT, do you think 88 or 99 makes that preflop raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

You can never discount anything on PartyPoker, people can do crazy things.

[/ QUOTE ]

At a $55

I raise to 50 PF, one guy calls. Flop is AKx, I bet 100, he minraises me, I push, he calls. He shows KQ.

I have no idea what you are talking about /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[citanul]

i think that the flop call is probably fine, to clarify my earlier post, the debatable part of this hand (or at least more debatable) is the preflop action. i just would think that the hands that your opponent is going to have are slanted heavilly to AK, AA, KK, QQ. on the flop your opponent plays strangely for any of those hands except for AK, which helps make this an easier play. in particular he's more likely to have AK and QQ out of those 4 hands after his flop push, i would assume. but yeah, the preflop action is the action i find to have discussion.

citanul

[curtains]

I have definitely folded AK preflop in similar situations, but Im not going to criticize someone too much for calling. If an ace comes, you have decent chance of winning all their chips because some people are simply incapable of ever folding KK+QQ after the flop headsup

[bugstud]

[ QUOTE ]

I have definitely folded AK preflop in similar situations, but Im not going to criticize someone too much for calling. If an ace comes, you have decent chance of winning all their chips because some people are simply incapable of ever folding KK+QQ after the flop headsup

[/ QUOTE ]

I was the guy saying that he should at least contemplate a fold. He has a hard time flopping a good hand and sometimes when the opp has a big pair and you "get there" you're starting another tourney soon. I know I have never folded it but to not consider it would be not good.

[curtains]

I suspect that he did consider folding.

[Jason Strasser]

[ QUOTE ]
but very few solid players will have the above stats and solid players are going to reraise here with stronger hands on average than worse players.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh yeah?
-Jason

[Jason Strasser]

I'm not going to raise to 100 and fold many hands, but AK and AQ might be two of them. That small reraise is a bit scary. If he wont pay you off if you outflop a big pair then you should probably fold.

On the flop I mean there is a tiny chance you are ahead, right? I think its a fine play probably close enough to EV neutral where you just can open up a new table comfortably when you lose.

-Jason

My thoughts:

I liked the preflop call, 150 into 400 is good enough to make the call with AK, and the 150 isn't over 1/4 of your stack.

I've already read how the hand ended, but I still don't like the flop call. I'd put the guy on a set or an overpair,but either way you're behind in the hand. You can factor in pot odds here and say you're getting the right price, but you neglected to consider "stack odds". How much of your stack are you going to risk when you know your behind in the hand? In this case, well over 90%, which means I would need much better odds than your getting.

I look at pot odds differently in trnys than I do in cash games. I never use "stack odds" in cash games, because they're about making correct decisions that are +EV in the long run, and the times you miss you simply rebuy. Trnys are more about survival, which means the long run shouldn't be as much a factor in your decision making. Instead, focus on surviving by getting your chips in as the favorite. You clearly know your behind in the hand (or you should), and losing this hand would severely cripple you, so I would fold and find a better spot to get my chips in.

[Newt_Buggs]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
but very few solid players will have the above stats and solid players are going to reraise here with stronger hands on average than worse players.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh yeah?
-Jason

[/ QUOTE ]
On average, a player like Gramps or Gamboholic_ is going to have a tighter hand range when reraising me in level 2 than an average $22 donk trying his luck at a $215.

[raptor517]

that looks fine nick, i dont mind it at all. holla