NL hand, late in tourny, 3 legit options?

[Josh W]

I didn't play in this tournament, but a buddy of mine did. He's a very good player, but is really torn about how to play this hand. So he called me, and I too was very torn.

The tourny is the Friday 5:00 p.m. $540 buyin NL tourny at the Bellagio.

There were 84 entrants, 15 left, they pay nine, and my buddy is playing to win, not to just make the money.

A well known player (David Levy) is running over the table, raising nearly every hand. He has about 30,000 chips (or more). The blinds are 200-400 with 50 antes. The table is either 7 or 8 handed. There are two very short stacks to Hero's immediate right (SB and Button)

Hero has 7000 in the BB. All fold to Levy who raises to 2400 preflop. Pretty standard move for him.

Hero has AQo in the BB. What do you do?

The options we discussed were:

a.) Mucking. This seems a little silly if you are trying to win the tourny, but a legit option if you are just trying to make the money.

b.) Pushing allin.

c.) Call, and push allin on any flop.

d.) Call, leaving open the option of folding on the flop.

Your thoughts? Results, and my thoughts to follow.

Thanks,

Josh

[Josh W]

Hero pushed allin preflop, Levy called w/ TT, flopped a Ten. Hero turned an openended straight, and missed.

Our thoughts were sorta....

We assume that Levy WILL NOT, UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCE, fold preflop. This seems reasonable.

By calling preflop, and pushing on any flop, hero has a chance to make Levy fold. This is the only way to make Levy fold.

By calling preflop, and leaving the option open to fold, you stay alive. That is, by calling preflop, hero is down to about 4500, so, after the SB, he'll still have like 4200. This is enough to work with, albeit short. With 10BB left over, though, stealing the blinds/antes is very viable. You need to be comfortable playing a short stack in order to consider this option. The problem I see with it is folding a winner which you wouldn't fold by pushing allin. For example, if Levy has Ax, and the flop is all raggedy, check/folding the flop lays down the winner in a large pot. If you push preflop, you get it in as a 3:1 favorite.

My choice, and this is only after a lot of thinking, would be to call preflop, and to push allin on any flop. But even after all of this thinking, I'm nowhere near convinced that this is the best option.

Thanks for any comments. I'm still chewing on this....

Josh

[Greg (FossilMan)]

Here's my analysis of your choices.

> a.) Mucking. and d.) Call, and maybe folding on the flop.
Eww. If you prefer either of these choices, then you probably don't have enough heart to play tournament poker, especially big bet. David Levy is almost always very aggressive, and since he's been so aggressive for so long in this event, and is still winning the chips, there is simply no good reason to give him credit for a hand better than AQ.

> b.) Pushing allin.
Fine option. You're quite likely to have the best hand, and probably are about a 3:2 or so favorite over his entire range of hands. I don't expect him to fold, even if he has a total garbage hand, and that's fine.

> c.) Call, and push allin on any flop.
Also a good option. However, given what I know about David, I don't think he'll often, if ever, fold a hand that is ahead on the flop when you do this. If he has 22 and the flop comes KT7, he will often grit his teeth and call, as he knows this stop-and-go play. You will occasionally get him to fold a hand like this, but not enough. Against most players, this is probably the best option. Against David, just push all-in preflop, unless you're good at giving off reverse tells when you push in on the flops that miss you.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)