ITM decision with QQ (33's) as the microstack

[ClaytonN]

Blinds 200-400

Hero (Button) - t170 - QQ
SB - t190 - all in from SB
BB - humongous stack

SB and BB will have random hands. Fold and hope SB gets knocked out, or gamble against the SB & BB with QQ?

If both button (hero) and SB are knocked out in this next hand, hero will take 3rd place.

[lorinda]

Without looking any numbers up, I think this is a fold.

Lori

[johnnybeef]

fold, kk or aa are the only hands that are profitable in this situation.

[pokerdirty]

i know it's easy to say this now that it is hypothetical, but would you REALLY lay this down? be honest.

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
i know it's easy to say this now that it is hypothetical, but would you REALLY lay this down? be honest.

[/ QUOTE ]

yes

[lorinda]

Yes, that would be my instinct.

Lori

[ClaytonN]

mmkay I guess I made the wrong move, and pushed.

thanks

[donny5k]

You'll win just under 2/3 of the time against 2 random hands. So here's the math:
2/3 of the time you win, and have just under 1.5BB. 1/3 of the time you are out in 3rd. If you fold, 1/2 of the time SB will bust and you will be guaranteed 2nd, and the other half of the time you will be automatically allin against the big stack the next hand. When automatically allin, you will be out 50% of the time and the other half you will be allin vs SB the next hand with you each having 50% chance of moving on (unless big stack plays). So your chances of moving on are 50% + ~12.5%.
This is simplified but in this situation it is probably close between folding and playing. Playing might be slightly +EV.
I think it has to be +EV to play since in the first case you'll have more chips when you move on (albeit 1 BB).

[ClaytonN]

Just for the record, I'm only worried that BB's random hand should beat SB's random hand, and I would be all-in blind the next two hands regardless, one without the SB shortie tagging along.