2/4 Top set, nasty river, guy leads

[fuzzbox]

2/4 NL 6-max.
Hero has no reads.
Hero has been active preflop of late.

Hero is button with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gifT/images/graemlins/heart.gif
Stacks about 400

Preflop
Couple of limpers, hero considers raising, but just on a whim decides to smooth call, and try to hit a set and win a big pot. Finally, a limped pot with 4 players.

Flop (Pot 16)
T/images/graemlins/spade.gif 6/images/graemlins/club.gif 4/images/graemlins/club.gif
checked to hero (bah humbug), hero bets 15, only BB calls.

Turn (Pot 46)
5/images/graemlins/heart.gif
check, hero bets 50, villain thinks and thinks and thinks and finally calls (there would be no story otherwise).

River (146)
The wonderful 8/images/graemlins/club.gif
Villain leads for 100 .... and hero does ... ?

[pottie]

I fold.

[Riposte]

Sucky river. Dude was drawing. Has flush or straight. Fold.

[DoomSlice]

When I take over betting on the river like that it's usually because I don't want my opponent to check through.

[nWirb]

Because I'm a fish I call and lose 100$ here, but the right play is probably to fold.

[fuzzbox]

Well, I thought about it, and I ended up calling. I figured that the other guy wouldnt believe that I was as strong as I was, and could get me to lay down a lesser hand than top set (which he might well have managed).

He showed A/images/graemlins/club.gif4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif and MHIG.

I also figured that he didnt get appropriate pot+implied odds to hit his flush (if thats, indeed what he had). Call 50 to win 100 pot and 100 river bet = 4:1. But he is less than that to make his hand, because I have a set so he only has 7 clubs that give him a winner which is 37:7 or a little over 5:1.

Is that a valid thought process to have ? "He is still making a mistake, even though I am paying him off ?".

[Isura]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I thought about it, and I ended up calling. I figured that the other guy wouldnt believe that I was as strong as I was, and could get me to lay down a lesser hand than top set (which he might well have managed).

He showed A/images/graemlins/club.gif4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif and MHIG.

I also figured that he didnt get appropriate pot+implied odds to hit his flush (if thats, indeed what he had). Call 50 to win 100 pot and 100 river bet = 4:1. But he is less than that to make his hand, because I have a set so he only has 7 clubs that give him a winner which is 37:7 or a little over 5:1.

Is that a valid thought process to have ? "He is still making a mistake, even though I am paying him off ?".

[/ QUOTE ]

Your thought process seems solid. Villain probably sees you as decent, so can't expect you to always payoff big when he hits his draw. If he just has a flush draw and calls the turn, he needs to know you will call $100 on the river 100% of the time to make the call breakeven. However, he also might realize that he can push you off of one pair on the river most times when he misses the draw, so calling with less than sufficient implied odds isn't a terrible move by villain. If he's bluffing with the correct frequency, then he gets you to also pay him off when he hits on the river enough times to make "chasing" the draw correct for him. Tough hand and tough call against a thinking opponent. But I think you made the correct play.

[TheWorstPlayer]

You have to call. And you should improve your rivering skills.

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
Is that a valid thought process to have ? "He is still making a mistake, even though I am paying him off ?".

[/ QUOTE ]
No. What play would you make if he showed you his flush on the river? You'd fold. Because that way he is making a BIGGER mistake by calling on the turn. Your only thought process on the river should be 'is the pot laying me good enough odds to call this size bet?'. That is the only determinant of whether or not your river call will show a profit which is the only thing you should care about. Whether or not his play on the turn was +EV shouldn't concern you at all once you get to the river.

[fuzzbox]

[ QUOTE ]
You have to call. And you should improve your rivering skills.

[/ QUOTE ]

Care to explain why I have to call ?

I think this was a good river, but a 4 would obviously be ideal. Its something that Im working really hard on.

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You have to call. And you should improve your rivering skills.

[/ QUOTE ]

Care to explain why I have to call ?

I think this was a good river, but a 4 would obviously be ideal. Its something that Im working really hard on.

[/ QUOTE ]
I wrote that before I read the thread so I thought you lost the hand. But you have to call because you will be ahead of random crap here way more than the necessary 30% or whatever (I forget the exact numbers). I'd say that at least 40-50% of the time he has a missed draw, a T, or an overpair.