overcard pot odds?

I'll try to be short and sweet:

When you guys are faced with calling a bet on the flop holding two overcards (say the pot is 4-5 small bets), are you calling in light of the 3.15-1 "river" odds, or are you folding in light of your one-street turn odds? In a small pot, I can't see following this hand to the river unless you can push out passive players. Let's assume we know nothing about our opponents.

Are these small pots worth giving up on in order to wait for a better spot?

[Eeegah]

The "standard" SSHE method is to count your overcards as 1.5 outs each. Technically you of course have six ways of improving your hand, but you can easily spike one and lose because it gave someone two pair. This is especially true if one of your overcards is an Ace since so many people play Ace-Crap.

So, if you have two overcards you can generally treat it as if you have 3 outs plus whatever your other possibilities are and play it just as you would any other draw.

Edit: I'm kindof confused by your question; are you talking about calling the river with A high, or calling the turn with overcards? Things have to be pretty unusual for me to call with less than a pair, like shorthanded to begin with and probably heads up, and even then I call expecting to lose.

[istewart]

It's a bit hard to explain in a general sense. If you have a hand specific to the situation post it here. But in general when I'm calling a bet it is with respect to the odds of hitting on the next card, unless I believe I will frequently be getting a free card.

[cold_cash]

Go with the next card unless you're going to be all in (which you shouldn't be).

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Edit: I'm kindof confused by your question; are you talking about calling the river with A high, or calling the turn with overcards?


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Hey it's freaky-picture guy, what's up? I'm specifically talking about calling someone's flop bet, looking to catch a card on the turn. When I'm first to act, say with 2 opponents, I'm really torn whether I should lead out, check/call, or check/fold the damn thing.

Maybe my real question is, are these weak overcard draws worth folding and not bothering with a small pot when you're behind? Would I be losing much if I just avoided these?

[stuartharris]

Unless you have 7+ outs, you should bet based on the odds of catching your card on the turn. This was a big leak in my game when I started out. I'd call on the flop, figuring I had odds to catch my card on the turn or river. Faced with calling again on the turn against a big bet (and often fewer opponents), I didn't have odds and would fold. It took me too long to figure out that the first call had been wrong. Moreover, when I started out, I was always counting each overcard as 3 outs; this is a big mistake since you can catch your card and still lose a number of ways, most often to reverse domination.

On the other hand, with 7+ good outs, call on the flop if you think even one or two more people will call after you; in fact, when faced with a bet and two calls, raise, hoping they'll all come along.

[numeri]

The "river" odds assume you're calling the turn as well - which you shouldn't automatically be doing. Just use the odds for the next card. (Usually discounted to 3 outs and ~14:1 odds.)

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The "river" odds assume you're calling the turn as well - which you shouldn't automatically be doing. Just use the odds for the next card. (Usually discounted to 3 outs and ~14:1 odds.)

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Yes, maybe this has been a bit of a leak for me, cause I've been calculating for 6 outs, and when I get a brick on the turn, my hands are tied and I have to fold. I think I'd like to tighten up in these situations and forego the small pot and wait for a better spot.

[Student Caine]

This was a huge leak for me. I also used to count my overards as 6 outs and found myself winning pots that were too small to counter the times that I went all the way and missed.

So here is a question - if we are counting odds to the next card only, how do we handle backdoor flush and straight draws. We are like 22'ish:1 to hit a backdoor flush and Mr. Miller says that we can count this as ~1.5 outs (I am doing this all from memory so my numbers may be slightly off). If we are concerned only about getting to the turn, do we totally discount our backdoor draws, or am I not thinking about this correctly?

[numeri]

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So here is a question - if we are counting odds to the next card only, how do we handle backdoor flush and straight draws. We are like 22'ish:1 to hit a backdoor flush and Mr. Miller says that we can count this as ~1.5 outs (I am doing this all from memory so my numbers may be slightly off). If we are concerned only about getting to the turn, do we totally discount our backdoor draws, or am I not thinking about this correctly?

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Backdoor draws are very rarely enough to continue by themselves. What they do is add a little bit to otherwise marginal hands. For example:

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Button calls, SB calls, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="red">BB bets</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="blue">Hero...???</font>

In this situation, if we're just drawing to the nut straight, we have 4 outs and need 10.5:1 odds to call. The pot is currently offering 9:1, so we should fold. (One might argue about implied odds, but that's a different discussion.)

Since we also have a decent backdoor flush draw, we can add ~1.5 outs, giving us 5.5 outs. With that, we only need ~7.5:1 odds and can now call profitably.

[milesdyson]

the thing about the backdoor flush draws is that they come with hefty implied odds. do this on your own and try to figure out why about 1.5 outs is a good number to use for one. you must take into account the bet(s) on the turn that you will have to call if you hit the fourth spade (there are 10 to hit with a bdfd), and you also must take into account the bet(s) you make when you hit one of the remaining 9 on the river.

if you do this it will make sense, even if you don't get to the same exact number.

edit: numeri that's an easy call without the backdoor draw (muahahaha... but it really is)

[numeri]

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edit: numeri that's an easy call without the backdoor draw (muahahaha... but it really is)

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Damn you... I know. I should have found a weaker draw than the nut straight. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[stuartharris]

Use the 1.5 number. As someone else pointed out, a backdoor draw by itself is almost never enough to keep going; however, in conjunction with a couple of overcards, the backdoor draw may make the difference between calling (or raising) and folding.

Unlike the straight 2-overcard draw, you either "hit" your backdoor draw or miss it on the turn. You go from 1.5 outs to 8 or 9 outs or zero outs. I think this is why it's worth thinking about two cards, where with only overcards you need to play one card at a time.