On the river in my boat [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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QTip

09-21-2005, 03:46 PM

MP1 was quite loose and rather passive

CO was fairly tight with a small PF raising range and way too passive postflop up to this point.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif.
3 folds, MP1 calls, 2 folds, CO raises, 2 folds, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
Hero bets, MP1 raises, CO calls, Hero 3-bets, MP1 caps, CO calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (9.25 BB) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets, CO calls, Hero raises, MP1 3-bets, CO calls, Hero caps, MP1 calls, CO calls.

River: (21.25 BB) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
Hero bets, MP1 raises, CO 3-bets

You ??

@bsolute_luck

09-21-2005, 03:50 PM

umm...i'd hate to fold in this big pot but CO wakes up on a 5?! he's got Jacks or Tens and you're screwed. and a loose/passive is capping: the unlikely quads?! you got me, but i can't see us winning this hand.

SeaEagle

09-21-2005, 03:55 PM

I'm not good enough to fold this because I hate having to put my head in the oven, turn on the gas, and light a match as punishment for folding when I would have won a 33BB pot.

But, really, you're never winning here.

QTip

09-21-2005, 03:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
umm...i'd hate to fold in this big pot but CO wakes up on a 5?! he's got Jacks or Tens and you're screwed. and a loose/passive is capping: the unlikely quads?! you got me, but i can't see us winning this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh....there's that beeping noise...you have to press a button...

peterchi

09-21-2005, 04:09 PM

Wow

Well we're not too worried about MP1, right? 55 is his only probable hand that beats us, but there's a ton of others that he might have too, like JT, Jxd, 56.

So CO probably has a retardedly-played JJ or TT.

But it could also be a retardely-played AA-QQ. I think that chance warrants a call.

Because I too would stick my head in the oven if we fold the best hand here.

ErrantNight

09-21-2005, 04:17 PM

cry. trust me, you don't think it's a button, but it's a button.

QTip

09-21-2005, 04:22 PM

Anyone care to put some substance to an answer (that sounded harsh...didn't mean it that way). Just some odds and %s that we're good.

SeaEagle

09-21-2005, 04:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Well we're not too worried about MP1, right? 55 is his only probable hand that beats us, but there's a ton of others that he might have too, like JT, Jxd, 56.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think there's almost always 3 boats floating in this river.

MP1 hasn't slowed down since he saw the flop. It's likely he had a set from the flop, but maaaaaybe he was capping all the way w/ 2 pair and made his boat on the river. Most likely a set though, because QT says he's passive.

CO has JJ or TT or 55, all the time.

I'm having a hard time coming up with a plausible scenario in which QT is winning. MP1 has 65 and CO has AA (and thinks the river counterfeited his opponents' two pair)? Or maybe CO just suffered a severe case of stupidity-tilt and is bluffing at the pot because he's tired of his AA losing every-damn-party-poker-is-rigged time?

With 30 seconds to decide, I'm panicking and calling this river. But you're probably looking at a capped pot and 10-1 pot odds and, with time to think about it, you're not good anywhere near 9% of the time and can safely fold this.

RatFink

09-21-2005, 04:46 PM

If you need a rationale to call and he truly is passive post-flop, then let's say he has AA/KK/QQ, he can't figure out all the aggression on the flop and isn't folding. On the river he feels he counterfeited two-pair holdings and the flush he feared missed and wakes up.

So if his PFR range is < 5 and he would have folded AdKd instead of hari-kari bluff 3-bet the river with it, then you are ahead of AA, KK, QQ and behind to JJ, TT and as all of these may 3-bet this river I have to call and then see MP1's quad fives.

@bsolute_luck

09-21-2005, 05:05 PM

i just frickin' call. i'd rather piss away 2BBs in this big pot than live with the guilt of folding and missing out on 27+BBs /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

AA or KK could play this way...i guess. MP1 has got me stumped- he doesn't have TT, so JJ or maybe 2 pair, or maybe he even has AA-QQ???

bah! arg! doh! i just throw up my hands in confusion and call this blasted ludacris hand /images/graemlins/grin.gif

QTip

09-21-2005, 05:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Well we're not too worried about MP1, right? 55 is his only probable hand that beats us, but there's a ton of others that he might have too, like JT, Jxd, 56.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think there's almost always 3 boats floating in this river.

MP1 hasn't slowed down since he saw the flop. It's likely he had a set from the flop, but maaaaaybe he was capping all the way w/ 2 pair and made his boat on the river. Most likely a set though, because QT says he's passive.

CO has JJ or TT or 55, all the time.

I'm having a hard time coming up with a plausible scenario in which QT is winning. MP1 has 65 and CO has AA (and thinks the river counterfeited his opponents' two pair)? Or maybe CO just suffered a severe case of stupidity-tilt and is bluffing at the pot because he's tired of his AA losing every-damn-party-poker-is-rigged time?

With 30 seconds to decide, I'm panicking and calling this river. But you're probably looking at a capped pot and 10-1 pot odds and, with time to think about it, you're not good anywhere near 9% of the time and can safely fold this.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is exactly where I was in this hand. First time in my life I ever wanted to to abuse the disconnect protect feature! /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I don't think I'm generally good here even 5% of the time and I'm getting 10:1 almost certainly.

So...I folded.

MP1 caps, CO calls

MP1: J5
CO: KK

After my blood preasure came back down, I still like my play and feel it was +EV. I have no idea what went on with CO...misclick, pissed at rigged poker or what...

P.S. Anyone have a match?

shant

09-21-2005, 05:29 PM

I don't like your fold just because people online do such stupid stuff, and I'd expect a JJ or TT to raise somewhere in there, maybe not on the flop, but sometime on the turn. I know there is no math to this or % or even much substance, but I'd be much more upset about laying down the best hand than I was about calling a few more bets on the river with a full house.

Edit: I guess CO put you both on JT.

Also, I'd like to hear what Jason would do on this river because he folds a lot more than I do.

QTip

09-21-2005, 05:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like your fold just because people online do such stupid stuff, and I'd expect a JJ or TT to raise somewhere in there, maybe not on the flop, but sometime on the turn. I know there is no math to this or % or even much substane, but I'd be much more upset about laying down the best hand than I was about calling a few more bets on the river with a full house.

Edit: I guess CO put you both on JT.

Also, I'd like to hear what Jason would do on this river because he folds a lot more than I do.

[/ QUOTE ]

Shant:

I hear you. I'm not going to be an obstinate, making this post only to defend my action; however, I will say this. I'm persuaded that I just earned money in that hand.

shant

09-21-2005, 05:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Jason: i call and i have some math to say why
Jason: do i have to post it ? i'm lazy

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm hoping he'll unlazy soon and post it.

flair1239

09-21-2005, 05:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't like your fold just because people online do such stupid stuff, and I'd expect a JJ or TT to raise somewhere in there, maybe not on the flop, but sometime on the turn. I know there is no math to this or % or even much substane, but I'd be much more upset about laying down the best hand than I was about calling a few more bets on the river with a full house.

Edit: I guess CO put you both on JT.

Also, I'd like to hear what Jason would do on this river because he folds a lot more than I do.

[/ QUOTE ]

Shant:

I hear you. I'm not going to be an obstinate, making this post only to defend my action; however, I will say this. I'm persuaded that I just earned money in that hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Q,

Not going to argue with your logic or your math. But I would like to inject some psychology into this. The play was definetly weird. But I have seen bad players go apeshit, with weird stuff before.

I am not going to go into whether I would play the hand differently or not. Just this. With my state of mind (this is just about me) it is better for my overall game if I don't make this fold. Simple because, if I am wrong... I might have to stop playing for the night. If I don't stop playing I probably won't be playing as well. I can guarantee you at some point over the next 50 hands I would tilt that 1-2BB away.

callmedonnie

09-21-2005, 05:46 PM

I assumed CO had JJ or 55 and MP1 I thought could have any two card combination of J or 10 or 6 or 5. While I think you are behind the thought of not winning this is more terrifying to me than the thought of calling this down, even for four bets. Though three is preferable.

I really can't decide if you fold was good or not. Reading the whole thread ruined any objectivity I could have offered. Tough hand.

QTip

09-21-2005, 05:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Jason: i call and i have some math to say why
Jason: do i have to post it ? i'm lazy

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm hoping he'll unlazy soon and post it.

[/ QUOTE ]

bobbyi once had a great post on folding the river in big pots....I really liked the post and thought of it while this hand was finishing up. However, I can't find it for the life of me right now. Sthief was in and then said bobbyi was quickly becoming one of his favorit posters...can't remember which name Josh was using there though...

Anyone know the one I'm talking about. Would just like to read it again.

Grvnhigh

09-21-2005, 06:05 PM

Your fold here is the antithesis of big pot strategy, and I really think that it is the worst of your 3 options. Your hand is absolutely worth a call here in this monster of a pot, and maybe even a cap. Neither of your opponents is going anywhere, and you don't have to lay odds on a 5 bet. So the question comes down to how often your hand is good, and that number is without a doubt above 10%, maybe as high as 40% or 60%

peterchi

09-21-2005, 06:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
maybe as high as 40% or 60%

[/ QUOTE ]
ai-yoh.

jason_t

09-21-2005, 06:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Your fold here is the antithesis of big pot strategy, and I really think that it is the worst of your 3 options. Your hand is absolutely worth a call here in this monster of a pot, and maybe even a cap. Neither of your opponents is going anywhere, and you don't have to lay odds on a 5 bet. So the question comes down to how often your hand is good, and that number is without a doubt above 10%, maybe as high as 40% or 60%

[/ QUOTE ]

Your post here is the antithesis of good posting strategy. Next time you decide to say something authoritative and full of disputable statements just don't and instead try offering support for your claims.

Grvnhigh

09-21-2005, 06:35 PM

Sure, why not? On absolute hand value hero has an overboat. MP's hand range can be narrowed down to only combinations of J,T,6,5, and hero has a majority of those beat. On feel alone, I'd say he is about even money vs. CO as well, giving him AA-TT with his non-set hands discounted somewhat.

Entity

09-21-2005, 06:36 PM

Hey Qtip,

Why did you bet the river?

JDErickson

09-21-2005, 06:43 PM

I really don't have any rational reason why but when I first read the post I put MP1 on J5s. I figured CO 3 bet the river because he though he just counterfeited other 2 pair hands with his high PP.

Against the donks we play against I can't see folding this.

QTip

09-21-2005, 07:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Hey Qtip,

Why did you bet the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's really a solid question.

I guess the last thing on my mind was a cheap showdown. I was thinking value. However, I did think a set of 5s was possible from MP on the turn especially since I really hadn't seen him get this active in a hand.

I would have called his raise, really, it was the CO that really hit me there.

The next interesting question would be if I checked and mP1 bet and CO raised, would I have called? And my answer would be yes. But, I think it would be different there in that I gave a sign of weakness. But, it's interesting how I might have ended up at 3, maybe even 4 bets that way anyway...justifying my calls along the way.

As it stands, I've shown nothing but strength and the same goes for MP1, so I gave CO a lot better holding.

SeaEagle

09-21-2005, 07:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Your fold here is the antithesis of big pot strategy, and I really think that it is the worst of your 3 options

[/ QUOTE ]
I think people are also forgetting that QT has to put in 3 bets to see this showdown, so it's not your typical "don't fold big pots for 1 bet". From a pure EV standpoint, it's the equivalent of 1 bet in a 10 bet pot, which isn't all that monster of a laydown.

FWIW, I don't think QTip would even consider folding if he were closing the action for one bet.

jason_t

09-21-2005, 07:14 PM