TP against a LP

[aargh57]

Playing 6max $2/4 on Prima
villain is very loose and passive. I saw him check on the flop and turn with overs and the nut flush draw, also checked top pair weak kicker on the flop acting last.
VPIP 50.0,PFR 0.0, TAF 0.75 89 hands

Anyway I'm in the BB w J /images/graemlins/diamond.gifT /images/graemlins/club.gif

UTG (LP villain) calls
3 fold
SB complete
Hero checks

Flop:
T /images/graemlins/heart.gif4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif7 /images/graemlins/club.gif
SB checks, hero bets, villain calls,SB folds

Turn:
3 /images/graemlins/club.gif
Hero bets, Villain raises, Hero ?

edited to add SB action on flop

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
Playing 6max $2/4 on Prima
villain is very loose and passive. I saw him check on the flop and turn with overs and the nut flush draw, also checked top pair weak kicker on the flop acting last.
VPIP 50.0,PFR 0.0, TAF 0.75 89 hands

Anyway I'm in the BB w J /images/graemlins/diamond.gifT /images/graemlins/club.gif

UTG (LP villain) calls
3 fold
SB complete
Hero checks

Flop:
T /images/graemlins/heart.gif4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif7 /images/graemlins/club.gif
SB checks, hero bets, villain calls

Turn:
3 /images/graemlins/club.gif
Hero bets, Villain raises, Hero ?

[/ QUOTE ]

...chucks it. Looks like the pot is small, and an uber-passive likes his hand enough to raise it HU.

[@bsolute_luck]

i once had, what i thought, a loose/passive read much like the one you've described here. he did this to me and i had A/images/graemlins/spade.gifQ/images/graemlins/diamond.gif on a Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif 8/images/graemlins/club.gif4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, figured he had 2 pair and folded. turns out had Q/images/graemlins/club.gif7/images/graemlins/club.gif /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

i call here and see the river.

In this small pot against a known passive player, I'd fold on the turn. I'd assume he had 56 and played it passively as usual until it hit. That or he just made two-pair and we are only getting 5:1.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
Playing 6max $2/4 on Prima
villain is very loose and passive. I saw him check on the flop and turn with overs and the nut flush draw, also checked top pair weak kicker on the flop acting last.
VPIP 50.0,PFR 0.0, TAF 0.75 89 hands

Anyway I'm in the BB w J /images/graemlins/diamond.gifT /images/graemlins/club.gif

UTG (LP villain) calls
3 fold
SB complete
Hero checks

Flop:
T /images/graemlins/heart.gif4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif7 /images/graemlins/club.gif
SB checks, hero bets, villain calls,SB folds

Turn:
3 /images/graemlins/club.gif
Hero bets, Villain raises, Hero ?

edited to add SB action on flop

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless you're against a set or that straight, when you're behind you've got 3-5 outs. We'll take 4 outs on average. The odds of making your hand on the river are about 10.5:1 (probability = 8.7%)

When we have the best hand, he could be drawing to a gutshot, flush draw, or two pair (holding a worse top pair hand) -- or a combination of these. We can give him 5 outs on average against us. The probability he catches us is about 10.9%.

There are 5.5 BB in the pot.

Suppose the probability we're ahead is x. Also assume villain bets on the river and we always call.

EV = x*(.891)*(7.5) + x*(.109)*(-2) + (1-x)*(.913)*(-2) + (1-x)*(.087)*(7.5)
= 6.6825*x - .218*x - 1.826 + 1.826*x + .6525 - .6525*x
= 7.638*x - 1.1735

For this to be EV = 0, x = 15.4%.

Being OOP makes this a little worse because we can't control the river action as well. He may take a free showdown if we check, but if we value bet two pair or trips, we may get raised by a better hand (which puts us in a worse position than the calculation).

I think folding is fine if you trust your read as passive. If you had KT, I would not fold because now there are some broadway combinations that you beat. The worst hand I would expect him to turn over in this spot is probably around a T8 or maybe barely a T5 (because he picked up the gutshot).