Re-raised on the turn

[jakbse]

Villian here is LP-P 42/2/0,9 over 51 hands.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, MP2 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, Hero calls.

River: (9.25 BB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 11.25 BB

My qustion is what to do in the turn, when a passive player check rasies me it normally indicates a big hand. I think this situation is a bit tricky. My thinking is that I'm probably beat, but am I beat often enough to justify a fold? My strategy is most often to call down as in this example.

[gharp]

I don't think you have enough hands on him to fold with confidence on the turn. I'd play it the same.

I fold this vs a passive player.

Against unknowns at this level (51 hands isn't enough evidence for post-flop aggression), I'd also call down here. If they have the K, I'll make a mental note that they probably aren't a tricky player - and then fold the turn safely.

[Fantam]

The BB may well have you beat, but I think that sometimes players like to bluff when a scard card appears on the turn.

I think that until you have what you regard as a solid read on your opponent, that it is probably best to call down in a reasonable sized pot, as you did, in situations like this.

[kapw7]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold this vs a passive player.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a big mistake. I have seen players with AF&lt;0.5 over 200+ hands (and NOT 51!) to bluff similar boards.

I think villian has a K around 90% of the time. I have never experienced a checkraise bluff on 1/2 yet(and around 2k hands) and I have pretty much called down hands just like this atleast 10 times to always find out I am beat.

[kapw7]

OK my experience is from 3/6. However you cannot be sure 90% based on stat numbers only and especially within only 51 hands.