anyone see this? DN lays down KK preflop.. [Archive]

Kyle Stark

09-21-2005, 01:01 PM

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Wow. As soon as he said; "There is no way you can beat this hand. It's impossible." my chips would have instantly been in the pot*. Doesn't this really mean; "I don't have Aces."?

* - Yea, they would probably have already been in the pot because I have KK but I'm just sayin'.

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No offense, I know we've all read the caro weak means strong and strong means weak....but I'm thinking negreanu gets pretty good reads.

Dubra

09-21-2005, 01:10 PM

does daniel play much online? i dont remeber seeing posts or hearing much about him in the big games. any info would be appreciated thx.

09-21-2005, 01:46 PM

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No offense, I know we've all read the caro weak means strong and strong means weak....but I'm thinking negreanu gets pretty good reads.

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At the end he mentions that he is in a funk, and the "read" he put on that guy may be proof of said funk

Jordan Olsommer

09-21-2005, 01:59 PM

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No offense, I know we've all read the caro weak means strong and strong means weak....but I'm thinking negreanu gets pretty good reads.

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In this particular situation, it would've helped, since his read happened to be incorrect. "I folded my KK face up and my opponent, who also promised he'd show me turned over... QQ!"

He also mentions that the button is a "novice player" - generally speaking, it's only the more experienced players who will tell you the truth about their hand in the hopes that you'll think they're lying and do what they want you to do (Scotty Nguyen won the WSOP doing just that).

I don't know how much was in the pot (I didnt see the QQ's stack size listed anywhere), but you have to be pretty damn sure he can have nothing but aces to lay that down. If there is any possibility at all that he has just as low as QQ, your KK is a coinflip against his range. Obviously it gets much better if there's a shot that he has AK or JJ as well.

But the upside is that against someone with a range of {AA-QQ} in that spot, if you fold your KK face up, 6/13ths of the time you look like a genius.

MicroBob

09-21-2005, 05:25 PM

fairly interesting article.

I'm not exactly kicking myself over a missed chance to lay-down KK...but I still think about it sometimes.

WSOP main-event (my first trip to Vegas): I had recently won a big hand with flopped set of Q's vs. AA.
Couple orbits later:

I have $18k. UTG has $11.5k.
Blinds 50/100:
Very tight player UTG (hadn't seen him show-down anything) bets $300.
With KK in MP I raise to $1000.
UTG re-raises to $5000.

I'm debating a little bit...but mostly am just stalling.
The UTG guy KNOWS I have him covered. He is also sharp enough to know that I am okay enough to not get too crazy against an UTG raise from a tight-player.

so he bet $5k here....and there's just no freaking way he is doing this without AA.
I don't even see him doing this with QQ to be honest but I guess it's possible.

He then says "do you have those queens again?" (referring to my set of Q's that crippled another guy with AA.

now I'm almost positive that he has AA.
Seriously...I knew it.

but as a brand, spanking new player am I really going to make some sort of ridiculous Hellmuthian play here?

Maybe he only has AK or something....and what the hell...even if I lose I still have $6k in chips left.

So I talked myself into pushing and naturally lose to his AA.

(fwiw - just calling here would likely have yielded the same result on an all under-card board).

Frankly, I just don't think I'm good enough to justify laying down KK pre-flop, heads-up like that.

If I was more experienced and perhaps better able to trust my instincts and reads I maybe could have done it.

betgo

09-21-2005, 06:53 PM

Terible fold, particularly with the pot odds he was getting. Typical unknown player would go allin with all kinds of junk.

09-21-2005, 06:55 PM

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He also mentions that the button is a "novice player" - generally speaking, it's only the more experienced players who will tell you the truth about their hand in the hopes that you'll think they're lying and do what they want you to do (Scotty Nguyen won the WSOP doing just that)

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What is a novice player to Daniel Negreanu? I certainly would be, since Ive never played a big tourney. I did the "reverse" on my first live tourney. I stared the guy down when I had a big hand to act like I was weak. You have to play the player not generalities.

Jordan Olsommer

09-21-2005, 07:32 PM

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What is a novice player to Daniel Negreanu? I certainly would be, since Ive never played a big tourney. I did the "reverse" on my first live tourney. I stared the guy down when I had a big hand to act like I was weak. You have to play the player not generalities.

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I would think that he has some conception of what a "novice" is in absolute terms; it'd be pretty silly if he wrote articles on the web for a large and varied audience while defining "novice" as "anyone who is worse than Daniel Negreanu."

And when you don't know anything about the player specifically, you can't play the player by definition - you have to play generalities. It is much more likely that when a novice player says "you'd better fold, my hand is unbeatable", he is weak than that he is strong.

If I knew basically nothing about someone, I'd assume that the usual "weak means strong, strong means weak" applies to him until I'm shown otherwise.

09-21-2005, 10:03 PM

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Terible fold, particularly with the pot odds he was getting. Typical unknown player would go allin with all kinds of junk.

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Agreed.

Zygote

09-21-2005, 10:25 PM

no wonder he is in a so-called "slump". his reasonings for folding are senseless and very amatuer-like.

Bigdaddydvo

09-22-2005, 08:12 AM

I wouldn't care if the so called "novice" player has Aces. I have Kings!

nyc999

09-22-2005, 10:23 AM

That so called "novice" has one hell of a story to tell his friends.

gcoutu

09-22-2005, 10:58 AM

I folded KK once pre-flop

I was on button with KK.

UTG bad player raised 3BB
Cutoff re-raised to 7BB
I re-raised to 16BB
UTG folded
Cutoff Pushed

We had similar stacks and were deep considering the blinds. I knew he would have called with QQ or AK so had to be AA. I folded face up and everybody booed me...he showed AA.

This was a player that I had played with many times otherwise it would have been much more difficult to make that lay down.

09-22-2005, 11:14 AM

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I folded KK once pre-flop

I was on button with KK.

UTG bad player raised 3BB
Cutoff re-raised to 7BB
I re-raised to 16BB
UTG folded
Cutoff Pushed

We had similar stacks and were deep considering the blinds. I knew he would have called with QQ or AK so had to be AA. I folded face up and everybody booed me...he showed AA.

This was a player that I had played with many times otherwise it would have been much more difficult to make that lay down.

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are you some sort of god?

Runner Runner

09-22-2005, 11:46 AM

I just don't see how DN could have gotten a good enough read to narrow the guy's hand range down to AA. If the guy was as confident as DN said he was, he must have been absolutely positive that DN had worse then QQ.

IMO, Daniel couldn't of properly represented the strength of his own hand, or if he did, maybe his opponent just thought he was gesturing. Couldn't he of said something along the lines of "You realize I have kings here", then his opponent would of probably given off some sort of sign of weakness, no?

drewjustdrew

09-22-2005, 02:06 PM

He felt he was behind, and he still had 100X the big blind left in his stack to make some plays. Maybe I'm the only one here who thinks tournaments don't revolve around a hand played in the first 3 levels???

Isn't hindsight a wonderful thing?

Is David Chiu and idiot for his laydown? I mean, that was 3 handed!

09-22-2005, 03:07 PM

well, i was at the table and i was the one to make an initial raise. I knew the guy didnt have aces right away cause he popped the pot 10x with only me and a calling station in it. Also, after moving all-in the guy started saying: I got u beat, your hand can't be better than mine, etc. This banter also made me scratch my head and coupled with the monster bet I put him on AK, QQ or JJ.
But DN was in a tough situation. He didnt wanna leave that early considering he lost half his stack on first hand of the tourney and wanted to pick a better spot. so it was very understandable.

09-22-2005, 03:11 PM

the guy with QQ had a little over 35K at that point, so he obviuosly could put pressure on DN without that much damage to him. Within an hour after that he doubled up Jean Robert Bellande with TT v. QQ on a rag flop

09-22-2005, 03:16 PM

when DN said novice he knew what he was talking about. Previously the guy made some bad calls and chased down middle pair on flush board to make runner runner quads, etc.

09-22-2005, 03:19 PM

he said he plays some but not much. He definitely played WCOOP but refused to disclose his screen name on stars

09-22-2005, 03:24 PM

pot odds is not everything when u risk going out second hour of a major tourney. after the fold he still had 10K left

09-22-2005, 03:28 PM

well, everyone knew he had Kings after he said "I never laid down this hand in my life". So it wasnt very helpful. After that comment by DN, the only thing that QQ guy said that he would show the hand. This was one more thing that made me even more confident he didnt have Aces

AaronO

09-22-2005, 03:29 PM

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Couldn't he of said something along the lines of "You realize I have kings here", then his opponent would of probably given off some sort of sign of weakness, no?

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Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe it is against the rules to say specifically what your hand is before the money is in the pot. He could make the Hullmuthian statement, "I don't think you understand how strong I am here."

09-22-2005, 03:33 PM

well, you could make an argument for either folding or calling. Absent the knowledge of the action on the hand i would have folded too and without much hesitation

09-22-2005, 03:39 PM

i dont know if there is a rule against saying what your hand is. I know that you cant show your hand without calling or folding it. But when DN said: "I never laid this hand down before" noone had a doubt as to what he had

Michael C.

09-22-2005, 06:11 PM

Yeah, of course it was a terrible fold- because the guy had QQ and not AA. But I kind of think DN has been fairly good at understanding these "typical players" throughout his career, considering that as a tournament specialist he faces so many each year. I give him credit for honestly writing about the hand, and he admitted he made a mistake. But my guess is that his reads against that kind of player is about 25x better than anyone on this board. And it also seems like he does pretty well most of the time at interpretting what people are saying to him correctly.

TomHimself

09-22-2005, 06:22 PM

i think its always -Ev to lay down KK pf because you can never be 100% sure he has AA

09-22-2005, 06:27 PM

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i think its always -Ev to lay down KK pf because you can never be 100% sure he has AA

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100% isn't the threshold

TomHimself

09-22-2005, 06:32 PM

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i think its always -Ev to lay down KK pf because you can never be 100% sure he has AA

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100% isn't the threshold

[/ QUOTE ]pretty much has to be, because if the slightest chance he has AK, or QQ your a coinflip against that range like jordan oslommer said in earlier post

09-22-2005, 06:38 PM

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i think its always -Ev to lay down KK pf because you can never be 100% sure he has AA

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100% isn't the threshold

[/ QUOTE ]pretty much has to be, because if the slightest chance he has AK, or QQ your a coinflip against that range like jordan oslommer said in earlier post

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Well the threshold is definitely less than 100%, that's not actually debateable, but I do think DN could learn a bit from the "math guys", since he says:

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I'd hate to say I'd do it again if I had to since it was the wrong move, but man, I was well over 90% sure I was looking at AA.

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TomCollins

09-22-2005, 06:51 PM

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pot odds is not everything when u risk going out second hour of a major tourney. after the fold he still had 10K left

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Do you get extra money for making it 5 hours and busting?

betgo

09-22-2005, 07:04 PM

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Yeah, of course it was a terrible fold- because the guy had QQ and not AA. But I kind of think DN has been fairly good at understanding these "typical players" throughout his career, considering that as a tournament specialist he faces so many each year. I give him credit for honestly writing about the hand, and he admitted he made a mistake. But my guess is that his reads against that kind of player is about 25x better than anyone on this board. And it also seems like he does pretty well most of the time at interpretting what people are saying to him correctly.

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DN has a reputation as one of the best touranment players at reads. I am not a top professional and my strength is not reads. However, when a player described as a novice goes allin, I am not folding KK. I may be more familiar with this type of player than DN. I understand he primarily plays very high buyin events.

fnurt

09-22-2005, 08:08 PM

betgo

09-22-2005, 08:38 PM

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Ok, let's say there's a 90% chance he has AA, and a 10% chance he has QQ. Coinflip, right?

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With pot odds, there has to be atleast a 60% chance of AA to make folding EV+, assuming there is some chance of Ax, where KK is not as big a favorite as against QQ.

whiskeytown

09-22-2005, 09:59 PM

maybe I'm a complete fish -

but if a guy goes all in and keeps telling me I can't beat his hand and I should fold, that is almost a given to me that he doesn't want a call -

and then again, a REAL pro would use that reverse tell to induce me to call...

RB

Beavis68

09-23-2005, 01:23 PM

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maybe I'm a complete fish -

but if a guy goes all in and keeps telling me I can't beat his hand and I should fold, that is almost a given to me that he doesn't want a call -

and then again, a REAL pro would use that reverse tell to induce me to call...

RB

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When the pot is that big, and I have AA, there is always a part of me that just wants the guy to go away.

I think the story is great. Daniel cannot be 100% accurate, but his vibes have served him pretty well.

Toro

09-23-2005, 01:35 PM

I think a guy like DN can lay down KK a lot easier than the rest of us mortals because he doesn't have to wait for big hands to build a chip stack.

burningyen

09-23-2005, 02:05 PM

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I think a guy like DN can lay down KK a lot easier than the rest of us mortals because he doesn't have to wait for big hands to build a chip stack.

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I would think DN's image as a loose action player actually makes it harder for him to lay down KK. The chance that his opponents are playing back at him for all their chips with borderline hands is a lot higher than if he were Dan Harrington.

Toro

09-23-2005, 04:02 PM

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I think a guy like DN can lay down KK a lot easier than the rest of us mortals because he doesn't have to wait for big hands to build a chip stack.

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I would think DN's image as a loose action player actually makes it harder for him to lay down KK. The chance that his opponents are playing back at him for all their chips with borderline hands is a lot higher than if he were Dan Harrington.

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I see your point but what I meant was this. DN had a read on the guy that he thought the guy probably had AA. Maybe I get into a situation where I make the same read. But because I play so many fewer hands and don't have the ability DN has to outplay people to accumulate chips, it's going to be a lot harder for me to lay it down.

09-24-2005, 12:22 PM

No but you get to live another day and have a chance to build yourself up. Later same day I saw Barry Greenstein go down from 150K to a little over 15K on a bad beat just to build himself up again to over 150K and make it to the money with a real shot for final table. So, your comment doesnt make much sense as far as tournament strategy goes