Was I stupid to push?

[Indiana]

Here's the story, 20+2 SNG on stars yesterday. 8 players left of original 9, all with stacks between 1100 and 1800. I am on BB with T8 spades. 4 limpers and button raises 3xbb and the blinds are like 25-50. Everybody calls. So at the point the pot is kinda big, for some reason the pot is at around 1000 after the flop and I am first to act. Flop comes Td Qs 7s giving me middle pair and a four flush so I have like 14 outs so I am even $ with AQ or something like that. So in UTG what do I do? I push my remaining 1000 chips UTG figuring that I may win right there and if called by something like AA, KK , AQ then I am even money on a 2:1 pot. Is this a correct move in the SNG?

Thanks,

Indy

[splashpot]

fold preflop

[kyro]

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fold preflop

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I agree. If you're closing the action or close to it, go for it. But you're in crappy position postflop with several people left to act.

But yes, I want all my chips in the middle on that flop. I push outright.

[Karak567]

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fold preflop

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[tshort]

I would push... it's definitely +EV.

I would have folded preflop, though.

fold preflop.

agree on the preflop fold..but since that didn't happen..

is checking, considering position, a bad move??

[kyro]

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agree on the preflop fold..but since that didn't happen..

is checking, considering position, a bad move??

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It's not awful, but the pot is around the size of your stack. If you push here and everyone folds, you've doubled up. Pushing is a little better than check-raising.

[rybones]

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Pushing is a little better than check-raising.

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I quite agree with the fold pf that so many are advocating. That said, I think pushing is MUCH better than check-raising. while you may be 50/50 with A,Qo you are still likely behind most hands that would call. A push makes them think and you have 2 ways to win: 1 they fold or 2 they call and you catch. If you check and someone bets the pot they are putting you all in. Even if they only bet half pot your check-raise will mean nothing and they will be required to call (according to odds). You now have only 1 way to win and that is to catch.

Alternatively, folding post flop with that many people in the hand might be as good as pushing. you still have plenty of chips to fight with and sometimes it is best to pass on a small ev opportunity to get a shot at a larger ev opportunity. Remember someone might have a higher flush draw.

Just my thoughts,

Ryan

[Indiana]

Ok I felt I was right to push. But what do you mean fold preflop? The pot odds were enormous and calling was not going to commit too much of my stack. T8s is the perfect kind of hand to call a min-raise where u will be guaranteed like 5-6:1 str8 odds preflop and perhaps the implied odds could go through the roof.

Indy

[45suited]

I fold pre-flop as well, but I suppose that calling could be okay. I just don't like it.

On the flop, I absolutely hate check-raising here. I'm not trying to encourage action and gamble it up here. The pot is already huge, push now with maximum FE, don't get cute with a C/R.

Considering that most people were limpers except the button, and then they probably called for the same reason you did (pot-odds), I think that pushing is by far the best play here. The button might have AK, AA, AQ, etc..., but I don't think anyone else has much.

So, considering most people still have lots of chips, they will probably fold. You will get called by AA/KK, which means you have 14 outs. You might also get called by Ax spades, which means you are currently leading, but he has 12 outs. So, I think it is definately the right situation to push. What was the result?

-MG

[pokerbo]

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fold preflop

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[Indiana]

Well I dont agree with the folding preflop. The button had AA and called me and won. I put this on cardplayer and I was actually a 52% favorite to win this hand, partly because he didnt have a spade and there was backdoor str8 equity above the 2pair and flush draws. It was a good gamble right? I only needed to have 33% pot equity to break even and I had 52%. I know that these are good gambles in a cash game say, but what I am really asking here is if risking the bust out of the money is worth the double up because doubling up still does not guarantee making the $. Everytime I make a move like this I dont make the $, but when I play it safe and avoid such gambles I either get really close or make it.

Indy

[45suited]

If you're going to be scared into playing this flop passively, that's all the more reason to just fold PF.

Exactly what flop were you hoping for if you're going to wuss out on this flop? You were correct to push, ran into a hand, and lost. That's poker. Fire up another one.

Once you decided to call PF (which most of us disagreed with), your fate was sealed.

BTW, one of the reasons that I fold PF here is that you were not closing the action. It's unlikely on a 22, but one of the original limpers could re-raise after the button mini-raised. But again, I don't see wtf you would call PF if you're then talking about playing passively after the flop hits you over the head like this.

[Indiana]

Totally agreed that you gotta play this flop like I did if you call PF. I'm just whining about the result. But really, nobody has given me a great reason to deny myself great and implied odds other than a potential limp-reraise (unlikely) preflop. Daniel Negreanu calls with much worse hands in these situations all the time.
Indy

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fold preflop

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[Indiana]

Ok fold preflop but why? Really, odds are good and this is a chance to bust somebody bad. Seems worth a few more chips to me. WHy?

Indy

[splashpot]

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Ok fold preflop but why? Really, odds are good and this is a chance to bust somebody bad. Seems worth a few more chips to me. WHy?

Indy

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Ok, I guess I finally explain why I fold hand like this preflop. Sure you're getting great odds now, but your hand is still a drawing hand and your effective odds are not so great. Yes, you have straight and flush possibilities. But you rarely flop a MADE straight or flush. Usually you'll just be drawing to one. When you are drawing to a straight or flush, you'll have to invest even more chips to see the turn and river. Due to the fast rising blinds structure of most SNGs, this is what makes drawing hands go way down in value. You simply don't have enough chips to be chasing draws all the time. You're much better off getting your money in when you already have the best of it. If the hand you posted was a limit ring hand, I'd totally agree with you and call preflop.

[rybones]

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Daniel Negreanu calls with much worse hands in these situations all the time.


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Two things:

A: Daniel Negreanu is better than you

2: Daniel plays mostly mtts with much deeper stacks (calling a 3x raise means like 1/50 of his stack and also means he will likely see a flop with only one other player).

and D: don't be silly

[OrangeKing]

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Daniel Negreanu calls with much worse hands in these situations all the time.


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Two things:

A: Daniel Negreanu is better than you

2: Daniel plays mostly mtts with much deeper stacks (calling a 3x raise means like 1/50 of his stack and also means he will likely see a flop with only one other player).


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Took the words right out of my mouth. You likely don't have the postflop skills to make T8s profitable against a raise, and you're not playing in the very deep stack conditions that make those plays possible.

[tshort]

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Ok fold preflop but why? Really, odds are good and this is a chance to bust somebody bad. Seems worth a few more chips to me. WHy?

Indy

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Ok, I guess I finally explain why I fold hand like this preflop. Sure you're getting great odds now, but your hand is still a drawing hand and your effective odds are not so great. Yes, you have straight and flush possibilities. But you rarely flop a MADE straight or flush. Usually you'll just be drawing to one. When you are drawing to a straight or flush, you'll have to invest even more chips to see the turn and river. Due to the fast rising blinds structure of most SNGs, this is what makes drawing hands go way down in value. You simply don't have enough chips to be chasing draws all the time. You're much better off getting your money in when you already have the best of it. If the hand you posted was a limit ring hand, I'd totally agree with you and call preflop.

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Indiana,

It seems you are being results oriented about this.

Button raises to 3BBs. If you call many many different things can happen. Everyone else could fold. Everyone else could call. Everyone else could get all-in. What are you going to do if one of the original limpers re-raises to try to isolate a big pot? You then throw away an extra 150 chips.

Lets say, though, that you call because you know 3 of the 4 limpers will call and no one will raise. So, I ran some calculations for this situation. I assumed you will be up against a range of top 30% for limpers. I assumed the raiser is raising with TT+, AQ+. You will have a 17% chance of winning the hand. 6 to 1 odds to win the hand... better than your pot odds of 7 to 1.

The problem, though, is you would need to see all five cards. I think it is clear that if you check a flop, there is a very good chance someone will make a decent sized bet on the pot. If you don't flop a straight, flush, trips, a set, or high two pair (which I would guess you have less than a 5% chance of flopping one of these), you will only be able to try to draw out. So, 5% of the time you flop the winning hand. 10% of the time you might flop a hand with 12-15 outs, which would give you good enough odds to make a play on the flop. Every other time you will flop nothing or a flush draw or open-ended draw.

In the long run, this might be a slightly profitable call. The problem is for every time you triple up getting lucky, you will have to dump a decent amount of your chips on a draw. Would you rather haver 1100 chips in all six tournaments OR 3000 in one and 0 - 700 in five others?

If you would rather have 1100 chips in all of them, you would fold preflop. In summary, you need to think about tournament strategy. Even though this might be a slightly +EV situation, there are too many unknowns that make it to risky. Use those chips when you are sure of the situation.

[beeyjay]

wait how the hell were your odds good when you called the original 50 UTG???

As for the daniel negreanu comment that was good comedy. youre not him and I dont think he would play this hand here.

Man I thought you were the greatest poster on the sports betting forum cuz all i had to do was fade your pick for a sure winner, on the sng board I guess i just have to ignore you.

[The Yugoslavian]

Pushing in that hand doesn't make you stupid but your comments in this thread do.

Yugoslav

[Indiana]

Yugoslav,

Please take your personal stuff back to OOT. You are a good poster I'll admit, and prolly a great poker player, but really, why would you say this bro? I have genuine concerns here and my comments are not stupid. Bottom line with the Dan N. comment is that I want to understand why he does that.

Indy

[KingDan]

I'm not trying to be a dick, but hands like suited connectors are not easy to play especially for a raise. If are not a good postflop player, you are better off avoiding these situations.

[Indiana]

brilliant response tshort. Thanks-Indy

[Indiana]

Just because I am a god at handicapping boxing and have a better than average poker game does not mean that I need to be afraid to be open and honest when I do not quite get something. How the hell do you think I aquired these skills? I asked questions when I didnt understand that's how. And I never worried about how stupid my questions sounded.

P.S. Didnt I say I was in the BB with the hand and not UTG?
Indy

[The Yugoslavian]

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Yugoslav,

Please take your personal stuff back to OOT. You are a good poster I'll admit, and prolly a great poker player, but really, why would you say this bro? I have genuine concerns here and my comments are not stupid. Bottom line with the Dan N. comment is that I want to understand why he does that.

Indy

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The more accurate question is would Dan N call there preflop (I'm not sure he does b/c I doubt he plays many party structure STTs anymore)? I highly doubt he would. I'm also not sure why you would think you would make that call there...

I dunno, it doesn't seem profitable unless you're closing the action. With so many players to act behind you you will get repopped more than you might think (ppl gettin' frisky for all the chips in the middle). The other problem is that despite your pot odds even if you did close the action, your hand will be difficult to play OOP on all flops but the one you mentioned and several others. I almost just like pushing preflop better than calling 1/10 of my stack with such a marginal hand OOP. One important thing to remember is that with such a big pot brewing and so many ppl in it, there is a very good chance EV will be leaked to you by doing nothing.

My only point of the previous post was that you're asking the wrong questions and/or thinking about the hand in a not that helpful manner. You seem to be dwelling on the flop play and the fact you lost the hand. This flop is fairly easy to play since you have a 'dream' flop. Just stuff your chips in, since you're OOP you don't have the luxury of sidestepping some sort of drawing dead situation like vs. AA and K7s or whatever.

Nothing personal, actually. Have we thrown down in OOT before? I don't remember it, /images/graemlins/confused.gif.

Yugoslav

[The Yugoslavian]

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P.S. Didnt I say I was in the BB with the hand and not UTG?
Indy

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He's probably confused b/c in the postflop portion of your discussion you do mention that you're UTG. Or whatever. You definitely mention you're BB to start with but it may be a bit buried in your prose - I had to read the post two or three times myself to be sure I knew what was going on. Still better than incorrect or bastardized HHs, though, /images/graemlins/wink.gif.

Yugoslav

[Pudge714]

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Totally agreed that you gotta play this flop like I did if you call PF. I'm just whining about the result. But really, nobody has given me a great reason to deny myself great and implied odds other than a potential limp-reraise (unlikely) preflop. Daniel Negreanu calls with much worse hands in these situations all the time.
Indy

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Two differences one Daniel is a much better post flop player. Secondly he makes those calls in cash games or with above average chip position in an MTT. I doubt he puts twenty percent of his chips in with 108s that often. Also he usually plays these hands in position or heads up not out of position in multi way pots.


You should fold preflop because you will need to hit a huge flop and you are putting twenty percent of your stack in, you can't afford to play a flop. Based on the pot size if you hit your flop you need to get all of your chips in on the flop or check fold the flop. If you flop a draw unless it is big oesfd etc. You cannot chase your draw. Against multiple people it could be possible that your cards aren't live, or that your suit isn't even live. Simply you can wait for a better spot to get your money in.

[Indiana]

Ur a regular poster in OOT. Remember that I quit that forum? Got tired of hearing about sticking it in some girls pooper and which Ramen noodle flavor is best. I dont think we have thrown down but ur posts can be caustic. All in all you seem to be inquisitive and I didnt really mean anything, just that I am struggling with this concept a little. Many, many, many times I have seen Danny N. call OOP with stuff like J4o because he claims he is getting 2.5:1 on his money.

Indy

[microbet]

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I am a god at handicapping boxing

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Klitchko v Rahman? Jones v Tarver? Feel free to PM me.

[Indiana]

How about Peter vs. Klit? Take Peter. Rahmann/Klit dont know yet because odds are not out. I like Tarver against RJJ but the price isnt great. PM me with ?s if you have any.

Indy

[The Yugoslavian]

Dan N is not playing a 1000 chip STT tournament (or 800 chip STT tournament) where the blinds go up every 10 hands.

The structure of poker makes a *HUGE* difference in what 'correct' play may entail. Good STT play in many ways is fairly 'narrow' in that it would seem most successful players will play most of any particular game almost the excact same way. However, out of all of the expert STTers I know, they all seem to have varying styles. Hell, even Zen/Irie (who basically are the same person) vary a ton in the way they play STTs. Waaaaaaaaay more than I ever initially thought possible.

And don't get me started on wacky Lacky's style, /images/graemlins/grin.gif.

All that being said, Dan N used to play STTs I believe (remember reading somewhere or something) and unless he had some extra knowledge about his particular table (no way someone could limp/push, initial bettor may overplay v weak hands, and other things), I would think he's folding preflop in the above situation like all of the time.

Early in a MTT the stacks are much larger in comparison to the blinds and there is a ton of postflop maneuverability that Dan N weilds very well. B/c of his implied odds he can afford to limp crappy hands and wait to flop a monster or find a situation where he can play someone v weak HU on the turn/river and bluff them off of a huge pot.

Yugoslav

[valenzuela]

postflop u need to protect ure draw, so pushing is fine.
btw u need to fold preflop but Im sure u heard enough of that already.

[RikaKazak]

WHAT!?!?! Ummmm...Push, VERY easy, and oh....obvious fold pf. And if someone has a higher flush draw, then you do have a pair, so you're ahead, and you have 2 of their outs. Don't know what crazy man was talking about. PUSH PUSH PUSH!!!!!!!!!!

[caretaker1]

Because your not getting those odds against one or two players, but (from the pot size you quoted) a lot of players who all probably have a better opener than you. The flop in this case hit you very hard, however that will not happen enough to offset what you're losing when you miss.

Post-flop, easy push I think.

$.02

I actually think the preflop call is fine, this isn't Party

[illegit]

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Ok I felt I was right to push. But what do you mean fold preflop? The pot odds were enormous and calling was not going to commit too much of my stack. T8s is the perfect kind of hand to call a min-raise

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You said he raised 3x BB. 3x does not = min. 2x = min.

[Toddy]

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fold preflop

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