Official Week #3 lines for the "3+1 Challenge-2005" contest

[Easy E]

Remember, ALL picks must be posted by Sunday noon AT THE LATEST, unless there is a game that starts before 1:00 p.m. on Sunday This applies even if you're only picking the late or Monday games.

Week #3 line O/U
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>Sun 9/25/05<font color="green">
Titans at Rams -6.5 46 o/u
Raiders at Eagles -7.5 47 o/u
Bengals at Bears +3 39 o/u
Jaguars at Jets -3 none
Saints at Vikings -4 44 o/u
Panthers at Dolphins +3 36.5 o/u
Browns at Colts -13.5 47 o/u
Falcons at Bills -1 none
Buccaneers at Packers +3.5 38 o/u
Cardinals at Seahawks -6.5 42 o/u
Patriots at Steelers -3 42 o/u
Cowboys at 49ers +6.5 40.5 o/u
Giants at Chargers -6 42.5 o/u

<font color="orange">Bye-Redskins, Ravens, Texans, Lions </font></font>

Mon 9/26/05<font color="purple">
Chiefs at Broncos -2.5 48 o/u</font>
</pre><hr />


If I get lines later for the Falcons and Jets games, I'll add them.
Also, I posted results for Week #2 in the ongoing thread. I haven't done YTD totals yet

[tshort]

$400 Chiefs
$300 Panthers
$200 Bengals
$100 Chiefs/Broncos under 48

[VarlosZ]

$400 Steelers
$300 Colts
$200 Giants
$100 Chiefs


-- Steelers: I see no reason to think the Steelers aren't the best team in the league; this line should be higher than -3 at home versus a Pats team that looks weaker than last year.

-- Colts: Manning made his reputation last year running up the score against crappy teams. This game fits the bill.

[bugstud]

$400 - Chiefs under
$300 - Colts under
$200 - Bears under
$100 - Cowboys under


yeah this had to work better than anything else I've tried /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[ElSapo]

What a comeback I made last week: from 0-4 to 2-2. Breaking even never felt so good...

$400 - Panthers
$300 - Packers
$200 - Eagles
$100 - Steelers

[Bulldog]

400 Chiefs u49
300 Titans
200 Cowboys
100 Patriots

[McGahee]

+$600 each week so far, clearly a model of consistency.

$400 - Eagles -7.5 Going against Oakland for the 3rd straight week - the most overrated 'Vegas' team and it's not close. Keep sucking in that Randy Moss hype, I'll keep raking in the dough.
$300 - Bills -1 This is where it pays to be a fan. Chicago in '02, Wash in '03, St. Louis in '04...I could probably go back 17 years: Buffalo pwns overrated NFC teams at home.
$200 - Colts -13.5 Cleveland coming off a win, Dilfer coming off an awesome game, and they're on the road against an Indy team eager to score a lot with a semblance of a defense...awesome.
$100 - Bears +3 Chi's defense is good and should at least contain the Bengals. As for Orton...there are a lot of bad situations for young QB's in this league...Cincy's D at home isn't one of them IMO.

[unlucky513]

[ QUOTE ]

$100 - Bears +3 Chi's defense is good and should at least contain the Bengals. As for Orton...there are a lot of bad situations for young QB's in this league...Cincy's D at home isn't one of them IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

bengals are 5-0 in the past 5 games against NFC teams. pays to be a fan.

[bradha]

$400 Chiefs
$300 Eagles
$200 Buccaneers
$100 Giants

Chiefs have been one of the best teams so far, offense is good as expected, and defense better than expected. Denver is at home, but they don't look very good this year, getting blown out by Miami and just squeaking by San Diego.

Eagles seem to be getting untracked with their offense, and are willing to run it up a little bit at home. After Randy Moss, the Raiders offense hasn't been too scary.

Buccaneers seem very solid - Cadillac makes their offense pretty good, and defense is very solid as in some previous years. The Packers are really bad right now.

The Giants have had some luck - turnovers and special team play to pad their scores - but they have also played very well. The Chargers have been underperforming. I'll take the 2-0 team plus 6 points over the 0-2 team.

[McGahee]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

$100 - Bears +3 Chi's defense is good and should at least contain the Bengals. As for Orton...there are a lot of bad situations for young QB's in this league...Cincy's D at home isn't one of them IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

bengals are 5-0 in the past 5 games against NFC teams. pays to be a fan.

[/ QUOTE ]

Helps when you play the NFC Least last year and Philly's 3rd stringers.

[TRWIII]

Ugh... only a push by the Bolts saved me from a scalftastic 0-4 last week.

Time to get back on track. In a hurry no time to post analyses.

$400 Titans/Rams under 46
$300 Falcons +1
$200 Saints/Vikings under 44
$100 Bengals -3

Trying some totals this week, we'll see how it shakes out.

TRWIII

[Doc7]

$400 Eagles -7.5
$300 Panthers -3
$200 Falcons +1
$100 Cowboys -6.5

[chiachu]

400 - 49ers
300 - Chiefs
200 - Titans
100 - Eagles

No real reasons behind these picks /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[AdamK]

400 Jags +3
300 Bro +13.5
200 Saints +4
100 Eagles -7.5

Jags: Admiral performance last week when expected to get trounced by the Colts, the game will have given them confidence. Should be well up to beating the Jets ( shocking 1st game &amp; hardly impressive against the Fish last week.)

Colts are very solid, but ( judging from last weeks display) struggle to put points on the board. I wouldnt want to be giving 13 1/2 here.

Vikins suck.

Eagles have done nothing wrong so far &amp; should dispatch the Raiders without difficulty.

[homedog]

$400 Patriots +3 at Steelers
$300 Broncos -2.5 Chiefs
$200 Packers +3.5 Bucs
$100 Dolphins -3 Panthers

[johnd192]

400 Cowboys Under 40.5
300 Titans Under 46
200 Chargers
100 Bengals over 39

[Cancer Merchant]

400 Bills
300 Bengals
200 Eagles
100 Chiefs u48

[AllinDan]

$400 Buccaneers
$300 Chiefs Under 48
$200 Jaguars
$100 Colts

[judgesmails]

400 Bears under39
300 Seahawks
200 Steelers
100 Bucs

[Lottery Larry]

$400 Titans under
Eagles over
Panthers -3
$100 Buccaneers

[Lottery Larry]

You need to make better picks than THAT if you hope to catch up with me :P

[sergsz]

400 - Eagles
300 - Rams over 46
200 - Bills
100 - 49ers

[IHateKeithSmart]

$400 Saints
$300 Cowboys/49ers over 40.5
$200 Buccaneers
$100 Giants

[scott8]

400 Saints
300 Bears
200 49ers
100 Steelers

[moose47]

$400 Bills
$300 Jaguars
$200 Packers
$100 Titans

[Kevmath]

$400 Bengals -3
$300 Bucs - 3.5
$200 Giants +6
$100 Bills -1

$400 Panthers
$300 Jaguars
$200 Rams u46
$100 Packers u38

[SossMan]

$400 - Chiefs Broncos under48
$300 - Bucs -3.5
$200 - Colts -13.5
$100 - Cowboys 49ers under 40.5

GL me.

[jedi]

I still suck at this:

$400 Chiefs Under 48
$300 Bengals
$200 Chiefs
$100 49ers

[kdog]

400 Colts -13.5
300 Cowboys over 40.5
200 Cowboys -6.5
100 Patriots +3

[MyTurn2Raise]

My picks:

400--Bengals -3
300--Bills -1
200--Browns/Colts under47
100--Chiefs/Broncos under48

[lastsamurai]

MINN -4 +400
cowboys - 6.5 300
New England + 3 200
Greenbay + 3.5 100

[Page Jacobson]

400-Seahawks
300-Panthers
200-Giants/Chargers u42.5
100-Cowboys

Seahawks-Cards are awful
Panthers-This may be a trap game but I really like Carolina
Giants/Chargers-Two conservative coaches and two good defenses
Cowboys-Parcells has to win this one

[DOTTT]

$400 Panthers -3
$300 Saints +4
$200 Raiders/Eagels U47
$100 Bears

[Buck_65]

$400 Buccaneers
$300 Eagles
$200 Bills
$100 Jaguars

[Vince Young]

$400 Patriots
$300 Patriots under
$200 Bills
$100 Bears

[rustyboy]

I need a shakeup. Im going only dogs this week.

$400 Pats
$300 49ers
$200 Packers
$100 Saints

Pats- Like the rebound, and the Steelers have yet to be tested
Niners- Like the rebound
Pack- Like the rebound
Saints- Like the rbound

[NoChance]

$400 Vikings -4
$300 Packers +3.5
$200 Broncos -2.5
$100 Jets -3

I post the following per Lorinda's request (and also for those who would like to see what my warped mind is thinking). As you read, keep in mind I look for value moreso than the better team.

$400 Vikings -4 Come on now. We all know the Vikings are better than they have shown. Everyone is talking about Culpepper and his confidence being shot. Well, look at his last four games against the Saints and you will see he has not been held under 300 yards. Last year he threw for about 450 against them. This is a team where he should have TONS of confidence. Also, this line opened at Min -6.5 and has now dropped to -3.5. This is where I see the extra value. Now for the Saints. They played a very inspired game the first game of the year. Their situation has got to wear on them as the season goes on. They are essentially playing their 3rd road game in a row. Plus, add the fact that they played Monday night and had a short week, you now have my entire list of reasons I like the VIkings at home to put a good game together.

$300 Packers +3.5 Last week the Packers had their absolute worst offensive game in 13 years. On the other hand, the Bucs probably played the best two games they might play all year long the past two weeks. All of this is fresh in everyone's mind this week. Tampa is the better team this year but this line has value written all over it. Give me the pack with the points at home this week.

$200 Broncos -2.5 I may be one of the few that thinks KC is overrated right now. You can't deny they are a public favorite because of their play this year. However, the Raiders made all kinds of mental mistakes last week. They had two touchdowns taken off the board and also missed a field goal. That game could have gone the other way easily and the Raiders are not a very good team. The Broncos always play tough at home. People also still have that fist game loss against the Dolphins in their mind. Value I say! Also, the is KC's second straight road game and Denver's second straight home game.

$100 Jets -3 I had a hard time coming up with a third game this week. I thought about Atlanta because I believe they will hold Losman in check but decided against it due to Vick's uncertain status. I thought about the Colts but there isn't much value there as everyone loves them this year. I thought about Cincy because I think they have played very solid on both sides of the ball. Unfortunately everyone else knows it too so there is no value there. Plus, I try to stay away from road teams if possible. That left me with the Jets. Not a whole ton of reasons here. I think the first game of the year against KC might still be in some people's mind and may have some value here. I am also hoping Jacksonville is exhausted from the game with the Colts last week and has less energy this week.

[charmy]

Eagles 400
Bengals 300
Rams 200
Steelers 100

[Moozh]

400 Eagles
300 Jaguars
200 Bengals
100 Saints/Vikings u44

[Taciturn]

$400 Bengals
$300 Jaguars
$200 Steelers
$100 Dolphins

[Rutis]

$400 Bears
$300 Rams over 46
$200 Colts
$100 Packers

[primetimenole]

Turned around an 0-4 start with 3-1 last week, let's see if I can keep it rolling...

400 Panthers
300 Jags
200 Colts
100 Rams

[splittter]

$400 Colts
$300 Bengals
$200 Chargers
$100 Jets

Explanation: Never thought about handicapping till last week, although have followed the NFL my whole life. Reasoned that my projected lines would therefore be fairly useless, so my tactics:

- First have a go at setting a line
- Compare with the actual lines
- Bet on the biggest differences with the line. E.g. On the Jets game i guessed +1, actual line is -3, I bet the Jets.

God knows if it's a sound tactic, am mostly doing this to see if I can get better at handicapping as the season goes on. So far I'm clearly rubbish at working out how to price a stong favourite, my biggest diffs both weeks I've played have been under-estimating the point starts the Eagles and Colts get over the 49ers and Browns.

[TheRover]

$400 Broncos
$300 Cardinals
$200 Browns
$100 Dolphins

[Smackdab]

400 - Chiefs +2.5
300 - Bengals -3
200 - Patriots +3
100 - Chargers -6

[el Jefe]

$400 Vikings
$300 Bills
$200 Packers
$100 Broncos

gl all.

-Jeff

[bosoxfan]

400 - Jaguars
300 - Colts
200 - Chiefs
100 - Cowboys

[Exitonly]

$400 - Giants
$300 - Falcons
$200 - Patriots
$100 - Colts

[Easy E]

Take note, all of you cappers! This is a perfect model for posting picks in the contest! Summary at the top (for my use), game analysis, easy to follow.

NoChance, if you nail the top record, I grant you now the Week #3 title using this perfect example as the tiebreaker.

Nicely done.

[Easy E]

Good plan so far- that's how to learn it!

[Easy E]

I can't believe that you let the damn Yankees pass you for the division. /images/graemlins/mad.gif Get them fired up!

[RunDownHouse]

Pretty low turnout this week, Easy.

[Black Aces 518]

$400-Colts
$300-Packers
$200-Bills
$100-Chiefs

$400 Cowboys -6.5
$300 Buccaneers -3.5
$200 Panthers -3
$100 Titans +6.5

Three road favourites; aren't I clever.

[rohjoh]

$400 Bengals
$300 Jets
$200 Seahawks
$100 Chiefs

[OrianasDaad]

$400 Eagles
$300 Bengals
$200 Panthers
$100 Cowboys

[lorinda]

I did this last year, and by the end of the season there were only 2 or 3 games each week where I was more than 4 or 5 points out.

Still not exactly great, but I did see myself get better and I enjoyed it too.

Lori

[fnurt]

$400 Packers
$300 Vikings
$200 Falcons
$100 Broncos

[CieloAzor]

$400 - Vikings
$300 - Chiefs Under
$200 - Titans
$100 - Chiefs

400 Eagles
300 Panthers
200 Giants
100 Jets

$400 Browns +13.5
$300 Bills -1
$200 Giants +6
$100 49ers +6.5

[jedinite]

$400 : Buccaneers -3.5
$300 : Vikings -4
$200 : Cowboys -6.5
$100 : Browns +13.5

[Ken_AA]

400 Bengals -3
300 Vikings -4
200 Giants +6
100 Falcons +1

Ken

$400 Eagles - 7.5
$300 Jaguars + 3
$200 49ers + 6.5
$100 49ers/Cowboys under 40.5

$400 Chiefs
$300 Panthers
$200 Falcons
$100 Jaguars

[DeucesUp]

$400 Saints/Vikings Under
$300 Giants
$200 Jaguars
$100 Chiefs/Broncos Under



Saints/Vikings Under44 The obvious risk is that Minn O comes out of its funk and uses this game to make a statement. But based on the season so far this one's a no-brainer.

Giants+6 Maybe I'm too results oriented but 2-0 vs. 0-2 and I get 6pts on NYG?

Jaguars+3 Jets one of my teams to fade. Should be a low-scoring game and I'll get a win or push in any game decided by a FG or less.

Chiefs/Broncos Under48 natedogg made a post about playing this at U49. I agree with his reasoning entirely and moving to 48 doesn't lose any critical numbers.

[The Armchair]

$400 Saints
$300 Cowboys/49ers OVER
$200 Giants
$100 Buccaneeeeeeeeeeeeeers

[MCS]

$400 Bears +3
$300 Patriots +3
$200 Cardinals-Seahawks OVER 42
$100 Jaguars +3

Thoughts from a bettor who's currently -$1200 /images/graemlins/smile.gif :

Cincinnati has played Cleveland and Minnesota. They will be riding high after beating two teams that appear to suck. They're on the road against a home dog with a very good D. Chicago will be confident, or maybe out to prove last week wasn't a fluke. Whatever supports my pick. Also, the Bears are my only win thus far, so I'll keep riding them. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

The Patriots are coming off a loss and will be desperate for the win. I think they're a better team than the Steelers. They will probably take away Parker, as crazy as that is. I think Roethlisberger is a questionable QB despite his 75 consecutive victories. Also, I get seduced when I see a team as good as NE getting 3, even if Pitt looks good.

Cardinals and Seahawks are defensively challenged. Gut instinct. Whatever.

Jaguars are just an anti-NYJ pick. You beat the Dolphins at home. Congrats. Still questions about Pennington and Martin maybe gone means I like the Jags here.

400 Bucs
300 Titans
200 Vikings
100 Falcons

BUCS---the Packers poor start is no fluke. this team did nothing in the off season to improve and now have lost their best receiver.

Titans---Rams are overrated, they cost me last week but i think they got lucky keeping the cardinals out of the end zone. plus i like taking an average afc team against an average nfc team.

Vikings---i just don't think this team is as bad as they've shown. Saints will be tired and weary from road games and short week.

Falcons---Bills offense will struggle, while Vick will find a way to get some scores.

400 Colts
300 Bengals
200 Rams
100 Chiefs Under

[Fairless]

$400 Colts -13.5
$300 Vikings -4
$200 Chiefs +2.5
$100 Chiefs/Broncos over 48

$400 Saint +4
$300 Bengals - 3
$200 Chiefs + 2.5
$100 Colts Under 47

[kyro]

$400 Pats - Homer pick
$300 Chiefs - When did we decide Denver was any good?
$200 Bucs
$100 Saints

[wuwei]

$400 Jaguars
$300 Rams
$200 Chiefs
$100 Steelers

[ctv1116]

$400 Bears
$300 49ers
$200 Dolphins
$100 Packers

$400 Chargers -6
$300 Chiefs +2.5
$200 Colts -13.5
$100 Rams -6.5

First, a general thought. I always pick the team I think can win outright. If I think the point spreads will affect the betting, the game is too close to call. In short, never take a team because the points look good.

The Chargers will expose the Giant's Defense. The Chief's could win this game by 4 TDs. This Colts game might be the most lopsided game of the season. The Rams might be poorly coached, but playing at home in a low pressure game brings out the best in the team.

I also like the Bengals this week.

Lastly, I took my own advice last week and stayed even for my money even though I took a beating in this challenge.

[sage]

$400 Eagles
$300 Steelers
$200 Colts
$100 Buccaneers

[Easy E]

<font color="red">$400 Chiefs under
<font color="blue">$300 Seahawks under
<font color="green">$200 Eagles over
<font color="black">$100 Steelers over

The Steelers look good, but I'm guessing that the Pats will also score some points. If the under falls instead, put the Steel City at the top of the AFC pack.</font>

The Eagles may be a bit of a homer pick, but at home they generate a lot of points and I think Oakland should be able to score a few points. If they fall apart again, I don't know if the Boids can go over all by themselves. </font>

As badly as the Cards have performed, and they're on the road... I'll take the under </font>

I was planning on riding the Chiefs D again, especially against the poorly-performing horsies. When natedogg came out so strongly for the under, I moved it all the way up.
This of course means the Chiefs get busted big-time

[CCCCC]

400 - Vikings
300 - Giants
200 - Rams
100 - Dolphins

$400 Chiefs
$300 Chicago
$200 Atlanta
$100 Giants

[FishNChips]

current record: 0-3-1 (-$800)

$400 - Giants
$300 - Chiefs
$200 - Steelers
$100 - Packers

Giants are better than anyone wants to admit. Chargers are worse than anyone wants to admit. Schottenheimer won't let the Bolts run away with this one even if they are the better team. 20-17 Chargers

Picking against Denver at home on Monday Night is like burning money .. that's the only reason this isn't my $400 game. I just don't see how the Broncs play with the Chiefs this week.

Steelers at home. Steelers with a very strong run game. Steelers with a very strong defense. Patriots couldn't stop the Panthers run. the loss of the Teddies in the middle hurts more than anyone wants to admit. They might win the SB again, but their not winning this game. Steelers 17-10.

Packers : Gruden will find a way to screw this one up. I'm not sure how, but he'll find a way. Bucs 27-24 and the Pack cover.

Good Luck to all this weekend!
FishNChips

[CCx]

$400 Eagles
$300 Bills
$200 Jaguars
$100 Titans/Rams u46

[Sadat X]

$400 Bears
$300 Titans
$200 Steelers
$100 Browns

[STG]

$400 Colts
$300 Bills
$200 Vikings
$100 Packers

[ThomasJoe]

400 Raiders under 47
300 Bills -1
200 Browns +13.5
100 Broncos -2.5

[Sluss]

$400 Packers
$300 Rams
$200 Cardinals
$100 Jets

I think I hate every game this week. I'm making no real money bets.

[holeplug]

$400 Eagles
$300 Bills
$200 Bears
$100 Colts

[whipsaw]

$400 - Raiders
$300 - Bears
$200 - Dolphins
$100 - Broncos

[Torr]

400 Bills
300 Packers
200 Saints
100 Chargers

[2+2 wannabe]

Broncos 400
Browns 300
Browns/Colts under 200
Bills 100

[Easy E]

[ QUOTE ]
400 Raiders under 47


[/ QUOTE ]

This is not what I wanted to see. /images/graemlins/mad.gif Do I write off my $200 loss now, or do I hold out hope that you're a two-week wonder? /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[Easy E]

All I can say is... wow! This has to be the best convoluted picking logic I've ever seen- bravo! Either you're a genius by Tuesday, or this could be the most ironic capping post in history.

If you outplay NoChance this week and lock up the top record, I award you the Week #3 winner's title.

Great post! /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[Bob L]

1.Colts $400
2.Seahawks $300
3.Jets $200
4.Rams $100

[MasterShakes]

$400 - Saints +4
$300 - Bears +3
$200 - Panthers -3
$100 - Colts -13.5

Saints: They're evenly matched with the Vikings, and getting more than a field goal in this spot doesn't make much sense. That this line exists even in the face of two awful performances by the Vikings is surprising to me.

Bears: A very good defense getting a field goal at home against a team that is coming off of two great performances. The Bengals, I believe, are overvalued at this time.

Panthers: Even on the road, this line should be higher than 3. The Panthers should make a run at the Super Bowl this year, and the Dolphins are a bit overvalued apparently.

Colts: 13.5 in a pro game? Yes, and it should be more. The Colts really should roll here. The Browns are overvalued coming off of their win at Lambeau, which wasn't surprising to me. The Browns will struggle to get to double digits and the Colts will post 30+.

[FishNChips]

[ QUOTE ]
All I can say is... wow! This has to be the best convoluted picking logic I've ever seen- bravo! Either you're a genius by Tuesday, or this could be the most ironic capping post in history.

If you outplay NoChance this week and lock up the top record, I award you the Week #3 winner's title.

Great post! /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

for the record, I am a legend in my own mind. Glad I could provide some humor to your day sir.

FishNChips
0-3-1 (-$800) and counting!

[peacemaker]

400 cowboys
300 Bills
200 Bengals
100 Saints

[Easy E]

I like to acknowledge quality work. Besides, I have to make up for the 3+1 salary somehow..

[WLC4Ever]

$400 - Saints
$300 - Falcons
$200 - Buccaneers
$100 - Bears

Saints - I don't understand why everyone's so high on the Vikes. This isn't the same team as years past. NO is 1-1 against two great teams, Vikes are 0-2 against two that I'm not convinced are any better than mediocre. Yes, I know NO is going on 4 weeks on the road, but the dome in Minnesota will feel like home when they make up for last weeks primetime loss.

Falcons - Another line I don't get. Between Atlanta's D coming off a second half shutout against Seattle, and Losman being...Losman, I don't see Buffalo scoring more than 10...and that's if McGahee comes out of his rut. Vick is good for at least 14, Falcons win.

Buccaneers - Fading myself here. I like GB as a home dog, especially after seeing an offensive spark against Cleveland last week (too little too late). That said, I think this team is worse than anyone realizes, and when it comes down to it I'd be counting on Favre's divine touch to cover. I don't think he'll have it against the TB D.

Bears - I look for a repeat of last week. Palmer's only been down 6 minutes this season. When the Bears score off the first turnover, I'm looking for Palmer to meltdown ala Harrington. Orton plays well enough to keep them up and the Bears win.

[Premium Hands]

400 Packers
300 Vikings OVER
200 Eagles
100 Patriots

Tampa Bay never wins in GB, Favre and the Pack are not going to go to 0-3. Can't believe they're a home dog.

Minn/NO - love the over. 2 dome teams, and I don't see the Vikings offense being this bad again, esp. against NO. Seems kinda low at only 44.

Raiders = overrated, Eagles had no problem with Moss in 2 games vs him last year. Their D can force Collins into mistakes. Should be a romp (some hometown bias there).

Patriots - Coming off a loss, Pats are tough. Steelers look good, albeit against two crap teams. Not crazy about this pick, it was between NE and Arizona.

[jpg777]

$400 Bears
$300 Steelers
$200 Steelers o42
$100 Chiefs

4 - Bears &gt;&gt;&gt; Bengals
3 - Steelers &gt;&gt;&gt; Patriots
2 - Think Steelers will light up Pats
1 - Chiefs &gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Broncos

[Jibbs]

$400 - Steelers -3
$300 - Rams -6.5
$200 - Saints +4
$100 - Chiefs +2.5


Steelers -3
Steelers are the class of the NFL right now. At home against a good Patriots team they have enough firepower on offense and stopping power on defense to cover the number.

Rams -6.5
The Titans are not good and the Rams at home are worth 6.5.

Saints +4
The Vikings have been atrocious so far this year and I am voting for that streak to continue. Saints win this one outright.

Chiefs +2.5
This game is a crapshoot but I am going to show the Chiefs a little love by picking them here since they were good to me the first two weeks of the season.

[chaz64]

$400 Broncos
$300 Patriots
$200 Raiders at Eagles 47 u
$100 Saints

[BreakEvenPlayer]

$400 Giants o42.5
$300 Saints o44
$200 Bengals
$100 Jets

[Bobby Digital]

$400 Bills
$300 Giants
$200 Chiefs u48
$100 Steelers

[pudley4]

400 Colts
300 Seahawks
200 Patriots
100 Jaguars

$400 Broncos
$300 Chargers
$200 Patriots
$100 Raiders

[lorinda]

My Picks

$400 Giants
$300 49ers
$200 Dolphins o36.5
$100 Broncos o48

I hate this week. Nearly all of my own lines were within 2 points of the actual lines, and I found obvious blunders upon further research.

I even turned my number 1 bet into my number 2 because of Rita. I don't like anything much, if I wanted to win this season, I would dodge betting at all... but I love a challenge.


Giants +6

I think this line is strange. San Diego are the barstool favorites this year.... even I liked them. However last week, by all accounts, they were actually 'thrashed' by three points. I think that they will be happy to win by any score and there's a reasonable chance they won't win at all.
Giving up six seems a bit harsh.

49ers +6.5

This looks too good to be true, and this week I'm not fading myself. I actually had this at +1, so it's not quite as ridiculous as the Vikings self-fade last week, but I'm not doing it two weeks running.
If the same Dallas team turns up that I was watching on my TV on Monday then they won't win this by a Touchdown.
Im concerned they will come out and "win one for Texas" enough to drop this pick from first to second.

Dolphins over 36.5

I have no reason to believe the Panthers will score under 21, I have no reason to believe that the Dolphins will score under 10, I think this one is a bit too low, I'm not very confident.


Broncos over 48

Chiefs Road Suck is the only reason that this isn't much higher.
I cannot bring myself to go against my mantra, but I also cannot bring myself to not bet this line.
If I had any faith on the Chiefs on the road I'd be betting this bigger, and I may bet it bigger in 'real' life away from the spotlight of the 3+1 challenge.
Denver have gone from pathetic to pretty reasonable in one week, I think another week will see them scoring well, I think there will be a constant flow of points in this one.

Edit: Picks were listed incorrectly at the top.

Lori

[scalf]

/images/graemlins/grin.gif..

400 browns
300 cardinals
200 bengals
100 chargers

10/1 parlay huge winner

gl

/images/graemlins/smile.gif /images/graemlins/club.gif /images/graemlins/wink.gif /images/graemlins/mad.gif

[mrbaseball]

I will continue my "fade the chumps" strategy. It has worked well to date so it's due for a snapback but what the heck.

400 - Bears
300 - Dolphins
200 - 49ers
100 - Vikings

[Porcupine]

$400 Philly -7'
$300 Arizona +6'
$200 KC/Den &lt;48
$100 New Orleans +4

Thoughts:
Philly: Still think Oak is overrated. Philly's D should be able to keep Oak contained enough for the cover.

Arizona: They should be able to keep things close, as they fight to avoid an 0-3 start. If Seattle gets out to a big lead, the fact the Seattle has trouble finishing teams coupled with the nice AZ WRs leaves the back door cover wide open.

KC/Den: Den O continues to struggle with Jake. I expect both Ds to play well and a lot of running should keep the clock running.

NO: Saints should rally after the embarrassing effort on MNF Jr. last week. I expect a tough/close game as Minn. tries to avoid 0-3, but I'll take the Saints talent and the points.

[Wyrm2]

$400 Rams
$300 Giants/Chargers U42.5
$200 Saints
$100 Patriots

[Aces McGee]

$400 Packers +3.5
$300 Eagles -7.5
$200 Bengals at Bears u/39
$100 Bills -1

-McGee

[Easy E]

[ QUOTE ]
My Picks

Edit: Picks were listed incorrectly at the top.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

Be careful with editing the original message- I might catch it in between. Better to reply to your original post, with the updated list in the reply, so there's no doubt (saving me the correction hassles post-morteum)

Thanks, Lori

[GetThere1Time]

$400 Colts
$300 49ers
$200 Saints
$100 Steelers

Colts - The Browns looked fine against GB but thats GB. Now they're playing Indy and at home. Indy wins by atleast 2 TDs

49ers - The Niners are going to be thirsty for a win at home after their annihilation last week. I hate to bet against a pissed off Parcells but I think Dallas's huge loss will be a confidence shaker rather than a motivator on Sunday. Niners at home cover.

Saints - The Saints are underrated and the Vikings have just looked like crap. Even if they are at home, I cant see the Vikes giving 4 points.

Steelers - I dont care if it is the Pats. Steelers are playing great and at home. Enough said.

[lorinda]

Three weeks and I've been told off twice already /images/graemlins/blush.gif

Point taken, /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

Lori

[Bucky-Dat]

$400 Bills
$300 Chiefs
$200 Cowboys u40.5
$100 Giants

[Slacker13]

400 Packers +3.5
300 Steelers -3
200 Dolphins +3
100 Bills -1

Bengals u39
Chiefs u48
Raiders +7.5
Broncos -2.5

[Cerelius]

$400 Saints
$300 Jaguars
$200 Buccaneers
$100 Bengals

C

[NajdorfDefense]

eagles 400
buffalo
kc
cinci 100

[bender]

$400 Bucs
$300 Cardinals
$200 Colts
$100 Jaguars

[SumZero]

$400 Bills
$300 Eagles u47
$200 Eagles
$100 Broncos u48

Is it wrong to want the Eagles to win by more than 7.5 while the total to go under 47? We'll find out.

[Slacker13]

.

[junkmail3]

Eagles
Bills
Buccaneers
Chiefs

[PistolPete]

$400 Panthers
$300 Patriots Over
$200 Eagles
$100 Bengals Under

[ThaHero]

TB -3.5 $400
Cin/Chi U 39 $300
Oak/Phi O 47 $200
Pitt -3 $100

[natedogg]

$400 Broncos under 48
$300 Bears under 39
$200 Rams -6.5
$100 Jets -3

natedogg

[football4me6]

$400 Patriots
$300 Raiders
$200 Panthers/Dolphins UNDER
$100 Raiders/Eagles OVER

[TradeRounds]

400 cowboys -6.5
300 chargers -6
200 panthers under
100 chiefs +2.5

fade away.

[lorinda]

[ QUOTE ]
fade away.

[/ QUOTE ]

I already have.... good luck /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

Lori

[ftball0000]

Giants 400
Bears 300
Dolphins 200
Broncos 100

[ErichS]

Bills $400
Rams $300
Packers $200
Patriots $100

[tubbyspencer]

$400 Panthers
$300 Bengals
$200 Patriots
$100 Chiefs

[eggzz]

Hey Easy, who's winning this dang ole thing anyway? Heh. Its definitely getting tougher, thats for sure.

$400 Steelers
$300 Cardinals
$200 Dolphins
$100 Browns

Good luck

[New York Jet]

They are also 0-4 after playing the Vikings. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

I live in Dayton and they're talking SuperBowl for the Bengals already. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

$400 Eagles
$300 chiefs/broncos under 48
$200 Buccaneers
$100 Saints

[New York Jet]

$400 Cowboys -6.5
$300 Steelers -3
$200 Panthers -3
$100 Rams -6.5

[20Five]

$400 Denver
$300 Dolphins
$200 San Fran
$100 Browns

GL /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[BellyBuster7]

$400 Packers
$300 Titans/Rams UNDER
$200 Saints
$100 Bears

Thanks!

[MarkL444]

400 vikings over
300 49ers over
200 colts under
100 eagles -7.5

$400 Bills -1
$300 Browns +13.5
$200 Giants +6
$100 49ers +6.5

$400 - Bengals
$300 - Panthers
$200 - Jaguars
$100 - Cowboys

[LockForward]

$400 Saints
$300 Cowboys/49ers over
$200 Packers
$100 Broncos

[Easy E]

It's Sunday after noon.

[Easy E]

Didn't understand this

[Easy E]

Good timing! /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[Easy E]

It didn't matter in this case, but in the future unless you're editing your picks immediately, it's better/safer to reply to your post with an updated reply, rather than edit the original.

Just so I don't potentially capture the earlier choices.

Thanks

[Slacker13]

I thought you liked the heading to say "My Picks". Thats what i meant.

[Bulldog]

[ QUOTE ]
+$600 each week so far, clearly a model of consistency.

$400 - Eagles -7.5 Going against Oakland for the 3rd straight week - the most overrated 'Vegas' team and it's not close. Keep sucking in that Randy Moss hype, I'll keep raking in the dough.
$300 - Bills -1 This is where it pays to be a fan. Chicago in '02, Wash in '03, St. Louis in '04...I could probably go back 17 years: Buffalo pwns overrated NFC teams at home.
$200 - Colts -13.5 Cleveland coming off a win, Dilfer coming off an awesome game, and they're on the road against an Indy team eager to score a lot with a semblance of a defense...awesome.
$100 - Bears +3 Chi's defense is good and should at least contain the Bengals. As for Orton...there are a lot of bad situations for young QB's in this league...Cincy's D at home isn't one of them IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

ROTFLMAO

This is why I don't add commentary. Just laying out the picks can, in retrospect, look stupid, but it can never look cocky.

[McGahee]

Funny how you didn't quote me in either of the previous weeks.
+200 for the year.
Where are you biotch?

[fnurt]

The man has a point, when your picks sound like a pro wrestler writing horoscopes, you're going to catch some flak when you're way off. Yeah, sometimes society doesn't give you credit when you get it right, but life is unfair that way.

[MyTurn2Raise]

[ QUOTE ]
This is why I don't add commentary. Just laying out the picks can, in retrospect, look stupid, but it can never look cocky.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't get on anyone for giving their reasoning. This is a sports betting forum. I like the bits of info people give here. I weigh it into my picks. It helps make money. Not everything is golden, but I appreciate it when people try.

Of course, the tone is a little braggadocious, but I think mine is from time to time. I cannot put my money out there unless I have a little cocky swagger about the game and my understanding of it.

then again, I suck at NFL games, so I don't pollute the board with my line of reasoning. I just find the NFL has too much action on and attention to the lines for there to be much value. But, I did lay some money on the bar stool pundits picks this week (1/4 units).

My 1 cent, cuz I charge for 2 cents worth.

[ QUOTE ]
I just find the NFL has too much action on and attention to the lines for there to be much value.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm going to respectfully disagree, MyTurn. It is because of all the attention that the opposite is true. The NFL attracts the most amateur sports gamblers, by number and likely, percentage, of any sport and league. In sports which have lower $handles per game than the NFL, it is in many respects you versus the linemaker. In the NFL, the oddsmaker always has to account for the large amateur betting public in setting lines. Profit-taking potential is ripe in the NFL for exactly this high amount of action.

[McGahee]

[ QUOTE ]
The man has a point, when your picks sound like a pro wrestler writing horoscopes, you're going to catch some flak when you're way off. Yeah, sometimes society doesn't give you credit when you get it right, but life is unfair that way.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can see how my Oakland/Philly comments might've been interperated as elitist or whatever, but that's it. I even threw in a "IMO" at the end of my Cincy/Chi thoughts. What do you want me to say? "I flipped a coin and..."
Whatever...I don't think some deuchebag in the red who finished 0-3-1 last week and is looking up at me in the standings has any room to mock.

[MyTurn2Raise]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I just find the NFL has too much action on and attention to the lines for there to be much value.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm going to respectfully disagree, MyTurn. It is because of all the attention that the opposite is true. The NFL attracts the most amateur sports gamblers, by number and likely, percentage, of any sport and league. In sports which have lower $handles per game than the NFL, it is in many respects you versus the linemaker. In the NFL, the oddsmaker always has to account for the large amateur betting public in setting lines. Profit-taking potential is ripe in the NFL for exactly this high amount of action.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sygamel,
I never thought of it that way. Your logic seems correct. Anytime I hear someone at the casino talking about a 'lock,' it's a 65% win to bet the other way. The NFL seems to be a magnified example with the amount of action and armchair 'experts.'
Maybe, I'm just trying to rationalize why I blow at picking NFL compared to college football, college basketball, and baseball. /images/graemlins/smile.gif
I'll have to think more about this

[lorinda]

Reasoning is always a help. If the guy doesn't like your picks or reasoning, he should be smart enough to fade them all.

Edit: Part of the reason I post my reasoning is so that people can see that I'm a total punter. If they think that I'm into the land of the BarStool, that can only help them.

Lori

[ QUOTE ]
The NFL seems to be a magnified example with the amount of action and armchair 'experts'.

[/ QUOTE ]

Precisely.

[FishNChips]

[ QUOTE ]
All I can say is... wow! This has to be the best convoluted picking logic I've ever seen- bravo! Either you're a genius by Tuesday, or this could be the most ironic capping post in history.

If you outplay NoChance this week and lock up the top record, I award you the Week #3 winner's title.

Great post! /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I sure hope that at least 1 person took the collar because at 1-3 (-800) I'm staring "scalf of the week" honors right in the face unless there were 0-4 (-1000) players.

I suck!
FishNChips

I assume that you're referring to me, though I went 1-3, as if it matters. In case it wasn't clear, I wasn't the one mocking your picks; I think the guy who quoted them and wrote "ROTFLMAO" had that covered. I was simply pointing that I'm a wuss who doesn't like to put his opinions on the line, as you did, for the reasons that Bulldog made obvious. And if I wrote that your picks looked cocky, well, they did. My picks look stupid in retrospect too; my point was that I'd much rather limit my exposure to hindsight.

I guess Bulldog, being a veteran with a +$600 week was a tougher target.

[Easy E]

[ QUOTE ]
I was simply pointing that I'm a wuss who doesn't like to put his opinions on the line, as you did, for the reasons that Bulldog made obvious.

my point was that I'd much rather limit my exposure to hindsight.

I guess Bulldog, being a veteran with a +$600 week was a tougher target.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see why posting picks without an explaination should really be considered less cocky. Aren't those cappers saying there's no debate, no reasoning required?

Now, extra-cocky by posting aggressive reasoning, gets whammied

As to this Bulldog poster, I have a feeling that the gods of 3+1 will punish him rather soon. See Lottery Larry's results this past week for a reminder not to trifle with the football gods.

[Easy E]

[ QUOTE ]


I can see how my Oakland/Philly comments might've been interperated as elitist or whatever, but that's it.

who finished 0-3-1 last week and is looking up at me in the standings has any room to mock.

[/ QUOTE ]

Both the mocking post and your attacking reply were well-deserved /images/graemlins/grin.gif But I say keep it up- better to put it out there than just wimp along...

[Easy E]

trifle not with the football gods by poor sportsmanship, for they will mock back...

[NoChance]

It's not always bad to post reasons. These were pretty much right on. I missed the last one due to an injured QB and a coaches challenge reversed at the end of the game. Either way, the 3rd pick was tough for me last week as I explained.

[ QUOTE ]
$400 Vikings -4 Come on now. We all know the Vikings are better than they have shown. Everyone is talking about Culpepper and his confidence being shot. Well, look at his last four games against the Saints and you will see he has not been held under 300 yards. Last year he threw for about 450 against them. This is a team where he should have TONS of confidence. Also, this line opened at Min -6.5 and has now dropped to -3.5. This is where I see the extra value. Now for the Saints. They played a very inspired game the first game of the year. Their situation has got to wear on them as the season goes on. They are essentially playing their 3rd road game in a row. Plus, add the fact that they played Monday night and had a short week, you now have my entire list of reasons I like the VIkings at home to put a good game together.

$300 Packers +3.5 Last week the Packers had their absolute worst offensive game in 13 years. On the other hand, the Bucs probably played the best two games they might play all year long the past two weeks. All of this is fresh in everyone's mind this week. Tampa is the better team this year but this line has value written all over it. Give me the pack with the points at home this week.

$200 Broncos -2.5 I may be one of the few that thinks KC is overrated right now. You can't deny they are a public favorite because of their play this year. However, the Raiders made all kinds of mental mistakes last week. They had two touchdowns taken off the board and also missed a field goal. That game could have gone the other way easily and the Raiders are not a very good team. The Broncos always play tough at home. People also still have that fist game loss against the Dolphins in their mind. Value I say! Also, the is KC's second straight road game and Denver's second straight home game.

$100 Jets -3 I had a hard time coming up with a third game this week. I thought about Atlanta because I believe they will hold Losman in check but decided against it due to Vick's uncertain status. I thought about the Colts but there isn't much value there as everyone loves them this year. I thought about Cincy because I think they have played very solid on both sides of the ball. Unfortunately everyone else knows it too so there is no value there. Plus, I try to stay away from road teams if possible. That left me with the Jets. Not a whole ton of reasons here. I think the first game of the year against KC might still be in some people's mind and may have some value here. I am also hoping Jacksonville is exhausted from the game with the Colts last week and has less energy this week.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think if more people put their reasons down, it would give others a different angle to think about (possibly.

[20Five]

[ QUOTE ]
$400 Denver
$300 Dolphins
$200 San Fran
$100 Browns

GL /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[/ QUOTE ]


4-0 woot /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Bulldog]

Relax, dude. It's just a game. Enjoy the smack talk! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[FishNChips]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
$400 Denver
$300 Dolphins
$200 San Fran
$100 Browns

GL /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[/ QUOTE ]


4-0 woot /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

well done... you get an official "woot" from me... but I also hate you since I am now 1-6-1 ... FADE ME TITLE SHALL BE MINE!!!