Gazes Call with AK after 2 all ins 4 handed

[Vee Quiva]

Has there been any discussion about this hand from the WSOP tonight? I ran a search and could not find any.

Does everyone agree that it was a stupid call?

Granted if he gets lucky and wins the pot, he's got a legitimate chance to win the whole enchilada.

i think this is a definite call barring some extreme circumstances.

[A_Junglen]

I don't see a problem with the call, specifically if your Bill Gazes and your clearly there to win.

I was surprised to see how PO'd Minh seemed about it though.

[Photoc]

[ QUOTE ]
I was surprised to see how PO'd Minh seemed about it though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Looks like Mihn has been watching old Helmuth footage on ESPN for some pointers.

[BTirish]

Given how close his stack was to one of the all-in players, I'm not sure I see the reasoning for the call.

You have to figure that at least one of these players has a pocket pair. The most likely holding for a player without a pocket pair is a weaker ace--but if there's a weaker ace out there, then your 3-way equity with AKo goes down.

I guess if he were very sure that the player with the larger stack had pushed in with a weaker ace, then the call would be justified. This depends on how big the disparity between the stacks was, though.

As it was, he ended up with a 3-way coin flip where going out behind both of the other players was a possibility. Justifying the call because it could put him in a position to win the whole thing has to be balanced against this possibility.

edit: I should add that I do not think it is a stupid or really bad call. Nor do I think I am qualified to pass any such judgment. I just see a difference between a 50-50 coinflip and a 3-way race when it's for your tournament life. Kudos to him for being willing to gamble to win--I just don't think it's the obvious best move.

[TimTimSalabim]

I don't think it's a stupid call, at worst it's marginal. He was getting almost 2-1 (the other two stacks were close to each other I believe), plus a chance to knock out two opponents at once and get heads-up. Unless you're certain one of them has AA, I don't think you can lay it down at that stage of a tournament.

[autobet]

close decision: marginal call/marginal fold

[SixgunSam]

I believe Mark Seif had a large chip lead at the time. If Gazes wins the three-way all-in he is around even with Seif and playing heads up for the title. If he folds and Nyugen wins, Gazes is the smallest stack with 2 tough players left. He's getting 2:1 odds with AK and tremendously increasing his odds of winning the tournament with the call. With a fold, he's nearly ensuring a third place finish, but decreasing his odds of taking first. If he is playing for first, I think this is a clear call and a good one.

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
With a fold, he's nearly ensuring a third place finish, but decreasing his odds of taking first.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because he had the largest stack of the three players involved in the pot, he was already ensured third place unless he ran into a situation where his AK was up against QQ and QQ and his two opponents split his stack. One of his two opponents was almost certain to be eliminated on that hand.

So, his choice came down to:

(1) folding and playing on severely short-stacked against Seif and about half the stack of the remaining opponent. That's a bad spot.

(2) Calling with the right pot odds with third place "locked up" and a chance to nearly catch Seif in chips and play him heads-up.

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]

You have to figure that at least one of these players has a pocket pair. The most likely holding for a player without a pocket pair is a weaker ace--but if there's a weaker ace out there, then your 3-way equity with AKo goes down.


[/ QUOTE ]

No, it doesn't- at least not significantly.

I don't remember the suits of the cards in the actual hand. But, this should suffice.

Holdem Hi: 1370754 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Kh 496900 36.25 869636 63.44 4218 0.31 0.364
Jc Jd 636192 46.41 730344 53.28 4218 0.31 0.465
Td Th 233444 17.03 1133092 82.66 4218 0.31 0.171


Holdem Hi: 1370754 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Kh 448950 32.75 902682 65.85 19122 1.39 0.334
Jc Jd 628006 45.81 738247 53.86 4501 0.33 0.459
Qd Ah 274676 20.04 1076956 78.57 19122 1.39 0.207

I'm not dismissing an extra 3% equity. But, even when the AQ is substituted for the TT, The AKo hand has 33.4% equity. The proper poker play is to call although it's essentially EV neutral with high variance. So, the decision comes down to what the proper tournament play is. Given the stack sizes, I think it's an easy call.

[csuf_gambler]

easy fold. like norman chad says, AK is way too overrated in tournaments.

i like his kristy gazes fold. that guy knows how to pick a spot.

[BarronVangorToth]

[ QUOTE ]
easy fold. like norman chad says, AK is way too overrated in tournaments.

[/ QUOTE ]


Perhaps it is. But this was an easy call, given the situation.

Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com

[Adjective]

Pff, that's nothing. I saw in one episode FOUR guys went all-in, but luckily for them they all had AK, I couldn't figure out how 4 people got all-in preflop without any pocket pair, or how the last 2 guys call when there were 2 all-ins in front of them

[Georgia Avenue]

I think it was marginal, and don't forget in the ensuing argument Bill said: "Minh you've been moving in every hand!"

So he had to think he was at least ahead of MN.

I hated that call, I think it was a terrible play. One of the other two easily could have had kings or aces and then he's dominated. As it was he had a coin flip which he lost and crippled him. For a player of his experience that should have been an auto-fold.

[Salva135]

You're not thinking about the fact that 4-handed, at the end of a major tournament with high blinds and a bunch of stacks extremely short relative to the chip leader, the ranges for pushing all-in and then a player behind coming over the top are WAY larger than AA-KK. One of the players could easily have had 77, with a KQs coming over the top to isolate. To put these guys on potential aces or kings is just weak-tight.

As it has been pointed out, Gazes was almost guaranteed to lock up 3rd because one of the stacks he had covered was likely to get knocked out or crippled, and he had a chance to take them both out right there and accumulate enough chips to take on Seif.

I think if Gazes were covered by either of the two players it would be an entirely different situation.

[schwza]

can someone give approx. stack sizes (and payouts if you know 'em)? thanks.

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
i like his kristy gazes fold. that guy knows how to pick a spot.

[/ QUOTE ]
ni han

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
I hated that call, I think it was a terrible play. One of the other two easily could have had kings or aces and then he's dominated. As it was he had a coin flip which he lost and crippled him. For a player of his experience that should have been an auto-fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

AA or KK 4 handed is nowhere NEAR "easily" with these guys, especially given he has AK. Mihn raises allin with ATs here too, and Kang likely would call AQ or AK. As it was, he still had a decent overlay in his call, and Dynasty pretty much nailed everything else. relatively easy call, period.

[Vee Quiva]

Here's the payout:
1st place $611,145
2nd place - $329,975
3rd place - $202,790
4th place - $175,010

Here are the approximate chip stacks before the hand.
Mark Seif $1,750,000
Gazes $450,000
Nguyen $400,000
Kang $400,000

This information was pieced together from the Cardplayer live updates section.

[Walter Pullis]

A fine call. If he loses the hand he will almost certainly finish 3rd(which he did). If he folds he is way behind in 3rd. If he wins he is not only second, but in decent shape against the chip leader.

[Vee Quiva]

So for those that say fine call. What is your calling range?

Remember that Gazes made a comment that Nguyen was moving in a lot and Nguyen was the first one who went all in.

I think I am only calling with AK, KK, or AA. Anyone disagree?

[A_Junglen]

I call with Q-Q, A-A, K-K, and A-K

I still think calling is the best play too.

[Kyle Stark]

I've been hopping around forums today specifically looking for this discussion because I liked the call and figured there'd be a lot of people that didn't.

The Live update log from card player. (http://www.cardplayer.com/poker-tournaments/event.php?id=2345&screen=logs)

As I said in total bluff's thread (http://totalbluff.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=4222):

Yeah most of the time he was going to be slllllliiiiiigttllllyyyyy under 2:1, there's going to be a small % were you are screwed vs AA or KK.

So here's the thing. You have a 3X% chance of winning a huge pot and being heads up with a stack you can contend with. so from there lets just say he's even money vs Sief.

15% of taking a bracelet by calling.

So, if you lay that down, Mihn doubles up, now you have to mess with both mihn and seif with larger stacks than you. I think his chances of winning a bracelet by laying down AK and taking a chance vs seif and mihn there are going to be less than 15%.

Now on the flip side if I was Phil Ivey in that spot and against 3 other goobers I'd lay it down probably (depending on M and when the next level is coming). Even with the blinds escalating phil Ivey would have more than a 15% chance of winning a bracelet at that point. However, Seif is dangerous with a big stack and Mihn, again, is one of the best.

Personally, I would take my 15% and be really happy.

[Army Eye]

[ QUOTE ]
I hated that call, I think it was a terrible play. One of the other two easily could have had kings or aces and then he's dominated. As it was he had a coin flip which he lost and crippled him. For a player of his experience that should have been an auto-fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ugh. Are you for real? No it would not be 'easy' for one of them to have AA or KK. And how it is bad to take a coin flip when you're tripling up if you win?

I think this is what Minh is thinking, which sounds like the standard play:
"A champion knows something that the average person doesn’t. He knows that a favorable situation will come up for him soon enough and he knows when he is in that situation. Of course, when player 1 raises, player 2 moves all-in and then player 3 calls, it is time for everyone to throw away their A-K, whether they are average, bad or a champion player!"
-Phil Hellmuth
It's a debatable topic whether the so-called standard play is indeed correct, but I think this line of thinking is what inspired Minh's reaction.

[Kyle Stark]

[ QUOTE ]
It's a debatable topic whether the so-called standard play is indeed correct, but I think this line of thinking is what inspired Minh's reaction.

[/ QUOTE ]

What inspired minhs reaction was he was racing for elimination. Of course hellmuth would lay this down and brag about how only 1 person in the world could have made that laydown....then wonder why he's constantly being bullied.

[Fletch101]

He was playing for the bracelet, so for him that was the only move. My take is that the #1 calling criteria was getting heads up with enough money to play Seif. As he said in his post game interview, he would have surely won if he hit his hand. I think that was the predominant thought on his mind in a situation where he could have gone either way, depending on his priorities.

[MicroBob]

If the TT guy had won the hand then I think the JJ guy (minh) would have stil had chips left so Gazes could STILL have finished in 4th place couldn't he?

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
If the TT guy had won the hand then I think the JJ guy (minh) would have stil had chips left so Gazes could STILL have finished in 4th place couldn't he?

[/ QUOTE ]

It seemed like he had barely enough to cover one orbit. Gazes would have had him severely outchipped.

[MicroBob]

I just saw the post that evidently the two shorter stacks had EXACTLY the same number of chips.
I thought there was a little difference between the two (and perhaps there was).

either way...I think it's worth a call.


If he folds he's pretty badly behind and will likely have 3rd place money (if the short-stacks really ARE even then it's a virtual guarantee unless they split).

If he plays then he is still almost guaranteed 3rd place money.
Even if the chip-counts are a bit off and perhaps one of them has $10k or so in chips and is hanging around in 4th palce (and Gazes is left with $50k) he still has a strong enough chance for 3rd place money.


In a 4-handed game I think this situation is almost guaranteed to be a call.
Very possible for one player to have KQ and the other to have a weak-ace.
Or for both to have pocket-pairs and the AK to be almost in a coin-flip to practically triple-up.
4-handed there just isn't a huge chance that he's up against KK or AA.


Obvious plays like this that are completely misanalyzed by the general public (and Norman Chad) are the reason why MTT's can be so profitable for the better players (of which I am not one yet unfortunately).

[Quake1028]

[ QUOTE ]
I just saw the post that evidently the two shorter stacks had EXACTLY the same number of chips.
I thought there was a little difference between the two (and perhaps there was).

either way...I think it's worth a call.


If he folds he's pretty badly behind and will likely have 3rd place money (if the short-stacks really ARE even then it's a virtual guarantee unless they split).

If he plays then he is still almost guaranteed 3rd place money.
Even if the chip-counts are a bit off and perhaps one of them has $10k or so in chips and is hanging around in 4th palce (and Gazes is left with $50k) he still has a strong enough chance for 3rd place money.


In a 4-handed game I think this situation is almost guaranteed to be a call.
Very possible for one player to have KQ and the other to have a weak-ace.
Or for both to have pocket-pairs and the AK to be almost in a coin-flip to practically triple-up.
4-handed there just isn't a huge chance that he's up against KK or AA.


Obvious plays like this that are completely misanalyzed by the general public (and Norman Chad) are the reason why MTT's can be so profitable for the better players (of which I am not one yet unfortunately).

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. I loved the call.

[SixgunSam]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is what Minh is thinking, which sounds like the standard play:
"A champion knows something that the average person doesn’t. He knows that a favorable situation will come up for him soon enough and he knows when he is in that situation. Of course, when player 1 raises, player 2 moves all-in and then player 3 calls, it is time for everyone to throw away their A-K, whether they are average, bad or a champion player!"
-Phil Hellmuth
It's a debatable topic whether the so-called standard play is indeed correct, but I think this line of thinking is what inspired Minh's reaction.

[/ QUOTE ]

This quote from Phil is correct in a general sense and is usually the correct play. There was a big difference in the dynamics of this hand compared to the standard situation described in the quote. I think that the only reason Mihn was upset was because instead of being 6:1 favorite all-in, he's slightly less than even money. I'm sure he would have made the same call had the roles been reversed.

[ QUOTE ]

Does everyone agree that it was a stupid call?


[/ QUOTE ]

As we have seen, not everyone agrees. I would not say it was a 'stupid' call. Gazes was reacting to events based on alot of factors. Most we did not see -- such as the overall history of that table and how strong or weak he felt one or both of the other players were.

Personally, I do not feel he should have called and he put himself in a position to gamble for the chip lead. I don't fault him for that but in that spot I would have thrown the hand away.

[primetime32]

If he felt he wasn't good enough to outplay his opponents, then it was a good call. otherwise, the call seems shaky at best. He had to figure that the best case scenario has him at about a 30-35 percent to win the hand. That is if one player had 44 and another had AQ.

So by calling, he is saying that he knows he will probably lose the hand, but that the gamble to obtain a big chip advantage was worth the risk. Not exactly, the way i would want to go out, knowing that i am that far behind.

If he stays out of the hand he is asssured 3rd place and would have 400,000 chips compared to his opponents at approx 800,000 and 1.7mill. Not exactly a good position, but not awful. Not nearly bad enough to risk your entire tournament life, when you know you will likely lose.

[TheBlueMonster]

[ QUOTE ]
(2) Calling with the right pot odds with third place "locked up" and a chance to nearly catch Seif in chips and play him heads-up.


[/ QUOTE ]
This is the more likely reason for the call.
Had this occured earlier in the tournament or even earlier in final table play I think he would have folded in 2 seconds.

[Angelic_Ace]

It's an easy call. Like others have said, you could very well be up against Ax and a pair, in which case youre about 40% to triple up and knock out 2 players. Even if youre against two non KK AA pairs, youre 2 to 1 on your money. I think Gazes really wanted 1st, and AK looked pretty good 4 handed. I was surprised Nguyen was giving him crap about it, I think he was just mad that he had to race against 2 hands.

[Beavis68]

Who is Phil Hellmuth?

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is what Minh is thinking, which sounds like the standard play:
"A champion knows something that the average person doesn’t. He knows that a favorable situation will come up for him soon enough and he knows when he is in that situation. Of course, when player 1 raises, player 2 moves all-in and then player 3 calls, it is time for everyone to throw away their A-K, whether they are average, bad or a champion player!"
-Phil Hellmuth
It's a debatable topic whether the so-called standard play is indeed correct, but I think this line of thinking is what inspired Minh's reaction.

[/ QUOTE ]

[BarronVangorToth]

[ QUOTE ]
Here's the payout:
1st place $611,145
2nd place - $329,975
3rd place - $202,790
4th place - $175,010

Here are the approximate chip stacks before the hand.
Mark Seif $1,750,000
Gazes $450,000
Nguyen $400,000
Kang $400,000

This information was pieced together from the Cardplayer live updates section.

[/ QUOTE ]


This looks about right as far as the chip counts go as I remember 3rd and 4th being "tied" in money. This meant that either by folding OR calling, he was still guaranteed at least 3rd since one of them would be getting knocked out.

He played to win: if he found himself in that exact situation 1,000,000 times against the wide range of hands that could be making those plays that short-handed, he's definitely +EV to call.

Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com

[illegit]

[ QUOTE ]
Given how close his stack was to one of the all-in players, I'm not sure I see the reasoning for the call.

You have to figure that at least one of these players has a pocket pair. The most likely holding for a player without a pocket pair is a weaker ace--but if there's a weaker ace out there, then your 3-way equity with AKo goes down.


[/ QUOTE ]
Goes down, but not far enough down to fold. i.e. if he's against JJ and AQ his equity is STILL 34%. Since he's getting 2-1 on a call his call is correct in this situation.

If he folds: He's pretty much guaranteed 3rd, and has an OK shot at 2nd (though he's still a dog to the 2 bigger stacks), and 1st will still be very tough as the short stack.

If he calls and loses: he's still guaranteed 3rd, but now 2nd and 1st are basically impossible

If he calls and wins: he's guaranteed 2nd and has a real good shot at first.

The risk/reward for a call looks pretty good to me.

[Dynasty]

The more I've thought about this hand, the more folding AK seems to be a terrible decision. I just don't see a good arguement for laying down the hand.

[2+2 wannabe]

who actually won the hand?

[mother_brain]

Clearly the WSOP is rigged for action.
I thought it was a fold while watching.
I think it is a call after reading this thread.

[MicroBob]

and this is the case regardless of whether he ONLY cares about finishing first...or if he is just trying to maximize his equity (since it is a fairly standard money prize-structure).


Actually...even if 4th place gets $0 it's a reasonable call (assuming the other two guys really DO have equal stacks that are slightly smaller than his) because he still should have 3rd mostly locked up.


I can only envision folding here if the top 3 places all paid equally AND 4th place got zero.
In that case he's running the risk of the shorter-stacks splitting the pot while leaving him with a miniscule-stack...while folding the hand still gives him a fighting chance to make the top 3.

But in the situation as is it just HAS to be a call:
It's 4-handed and they could have a LOT of hands here....it's a normal prize-structure...he has both stacks covered...1 of the players is likely to get eliminated right now regardless of whether the AK wins the hand.

Folding here is really bad.