2knl on party, bluff it up

[Prevaricator]

playing pretty tight so far, I don't think ive ever shown my cards, and these players are tight for the most part.

effective stacks 2k

edit: full table btw

Guy limps UTG, folded to me in mid position, I make it 80 with KT /images/graemlins/club.gif hoping to isolate. Folds back to him and he calls. His most likely holding IMO is a PP and then stuff like QJs JTs that kind of stuff.

Flop comes Q /images/graemlins/spade.gifJ /images/graemlins/spade.gif5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, the pot is 190.

He checks, I bet 170 and he thinks for a small amount of time, like maybe 10 seconds, and then minraises. I put him on a set of fives here, seems like JJ and QQ are less and even less likely, but QJ is a big possibility here as well.

I call hoping to hit that nine and bust the mofo. Turn is the 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif, and he bets 350. I push.

Good, bad, ugly?

[cero_z]

Hi Prevaricator,

Good.

[Allinlife]

[ QUOTE ]
I put him on a set of fives here, seems like JJ and QQ are less and even less likely, but QJ is a big possibility here as well.


[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I push.


[/ QUOTE ]
I don't understand this logic. According to your read, why would villan fold his hand on a blank 5?

[lapoker17]

bc top 2 just got counterfitted...

[AZK]

nh

[Allinlife]

I have hard time believing an unknown on party would lay QJ here.. also, I don't think your representation of AA/KK would sell as good without presence of a preflop reraise.

[DOTTT]

utg limped.
My only question here is if utg is holding QJ does he know he just got counterfited, or is he thinking 'I'm getting all my money in with top two sweet!'

[flawless_victory]

[ QUOTE ]
I have hard time believing an unknown on party would lay QJ here..

[/ QUOTE ]i think its more the opposite.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I have hard time believing an unknown on party would lay QJ here..

[/ QUOTE ]i think its more the opposite.

[/ QUOTE ]

and it's not like hero is dead to qj.. he does have about 25% equity

[Prevaricator]

I don't think he can call with QJ in this hand, in order of likelihood he will have JJ and then 55 or QQ (I think its a LOT less likely he limped with QQ than JJ). Of course I'm drawing dead against those.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think he can call with QJ in this hand, in order of likelihood he will have JJ and then 55 or QQ (I think its a LOT less likely he limped with QQ than JJ). Of course I'm drawing dead against those.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont think he "can," either, rick. it doesnt mean he will fold though.

Im saying if the plan doesnt work (as it should) you're not drawing that dead vs his most likely hand.

anyway, nh here, I dont have anything to add others havent, hoped it worked out for you.

[captZEEbo1]

I don't like it, he's not folding QJ, He can probably fold a loan jack, MAYBE a loan Q.

[flawless_victory]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like it, he's not folding QJ, He can probably fold a loan jack, MAYBE a loan Q.

[/ QUOTE ]never played in that game?

[Yeti]

[ QUOTE ]
He can probably fold a loan jack, MAYBE a loan Q.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. If he's gone to the trouble of renting these hands he's likely gonna push with them as well.

[outdrwn]

I guess I was missing something :-P. I play high stakes, but not 2k, so I guess villain would be sweating a lot facing that all in with only a queen. Nice semi-bluff, but I still don't like playing K10s(shorthanded?)especially with 2000 at stake! How are players playing JQ if they put down 2000? seems kinda fishy. But then again, I don't play for 2k

[mgsimpleton]

[ QUOTE ]
am I missing something?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes.

[Yeti]

[ QUOTE ]
..am I missing something?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah.

He has 4 ace outs.

And the 5 means it's highly unlikely Villain has 55. It was already unlikely he had QQ/JJ.

[mgsimpleton]

ok i'll be nicer. basically OP said the two most likely hands were QJ and 55. 55 is way less likely due to the other 5 hitting (now 1 combination possible instead of 6) so QJ is most likely hand now. and QJ just got counterfeit like whoa. if villan has any clue what hero is representing he might very well lay down his QJ. and if he doesn't, hero still has 11 outs.

[Prevaricator]

lets take a closer look at this:

It should be clear that if he folds QJ and his range is limited to QJ and 55, then the push is very good.

What if his standard play with JJ is to limp utg? Then is the push good vs his range assuming he folds QJ?

I think if he limps with both QQ and JJ then the push has to be bad, but I think its extremely unlikely he has QQ but only somewhat unlikely he can have JJ. Preflop if he limps utg with QJs, 55, and JJ each 100% of the time, never folding or raising to mix it up, and then plays those the same postflop on that board, is the push good? If it isnt, what is the % of time he is allowed to limp with JJ before the push becomes bad? (and if he can limp with JJ 100% of the time and the push is still good, how often can he limp with QQ?) Can anyone figure this out?

[JMP300z]

I think his hand range is a bit larger than just QJ and 55. Limping and calling a raise UTG and playing the flop and turn in such a manner is also possible w/ AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AQ. Im not saying these are the most likely but to say he only has one of those three hands for a EV calc is kinda dumb. Is this guy so tight that he will only call this turn raise w/ a set?? Thats a better question.
-JP

[Richie Rich]

[ QUOTE ]
He has 4 ace outs.

[/ QUOTE ]
Since any nine would complete his OESD, hero has at least 8 outs. Maybe more.


[ QUOTE ]
And the 5 means it's highly unlikely Villain has 55. It was already unlikely he had QQ/JJ.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hero stated that he thinks villain is most likely holding 55 or QJ, so your first sentence is incorrect. Although the 5 on the turn makes it much less likely he just picked up quads. And the second sentence is probably true, but not 100%.

[TheWorstPlayer]

Win 980, lose 2000. 1 combo of 55, 9 QJ, 6 QQ, 6 JJ. So if he will play only QJ/55 this way, then you have

EV = [9*980-2000]/10 = +682

If he will mix in JJ then you have

EV = [9*980-6*2000-2000]/16 = -324

If he'll only mix in JJ x proportion of the time, you have

EV = [9*980-6x*2000-2000]/[10+6x]

Setting EV = 0, you get x = 56.7%. So he can mix in JJ 56% of the time and your push is still +EV.

The bigger issue, however, IMO, is the fact that he is probably pretty unlikely to min check/raise top two here. At least not 100% of the time. And he also may CALL with QJ occasionally further decreasing your EV.

I think these assumptions are VERY hypothetical, but this should be good practice for me for doing some EV calc... let me know if I make a mistake.

You are risking $1580 to win $1220. Thus, you need this bluff to work about 57% of the time.

There are 3 ways for him to have QJs, 3 ways for JJ, and one 55. Assuming he has one of these hands and will only fold if he has QJs, that means he only folds 3/7 of the time, assuming he always limps with JJ. To solve for the % of the time he's allowed to limp with JJ to have the bluff be correct, let's call that percentage 'p'. Then we have .57 = 3/(3p+4). Solving for p gives .42. So, given these assumptions, the bluff is good as long as he is holding JJ less than 42% of the time.

[Yeti]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He has 4 ace outs.

[/ QUOTE ]
Since any nine would complete his OESD, hero has at least 8 outs. Maybe more.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I can count outs. I was informing the guy who overlooked the ace outs, who incidentally has totally edited his post now.



[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
And the 5 means it's highly unlikely Villain has 55. It was already unlikely he had QQ/JJ.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hero stated that he thinks villain is most likely holding 55 or QJ, so your first sentence is incorrect. Although the 5 on the turn makes it much less likely he just picked up quads.

[/ QUOTE ]

He stated that on the flop, before the 5 peeled. You basically contradicted yourself in two sentences.

[Prevaricator]

[ QUOTE ]
I think his hand range is a bit larger than just QJ and 55. Limping and calling a raise UTG and playing the flop and turn in such a manner is also possible w/ AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AQ. Im not saying these are the most likely but to say he only has one of those three hands for a EV calc is kinda dumb. Is this guy so tight that he will only call this turn raise w/ a set?? Thats a better question.
-JP

[/ QUOTE ]

AA and KK I would say highly unlikely, but good point, AQ is possible too, although I don't think he check minraises the flop like that. The way he played the hand, pausing after i bet and then minraising reads to me like a hand that beats top pair. I think including only the hands I specified for the EV calc is still worthwhile because it gives us a general idea of how many combinations he has to fold in order for the play to be correct.

[ QUOTE ]
Win 980, lose 2000. 1 combo of 55, 9 QJ, 6 QQ, 6 JJ. So if he will play only QJ/55 this way, then you have

EV = [9*980-2000]/10 = +682

If he will mix in JJ then you have

EV = [9*980-6*2000-2000]/16 = -324

If he'll only mix in JJ x proportion of the time, you have

EV = [9*980-6x*2000-2000]/[10+6x]

Setting EV = 0, you get x = 56.7%. So he can mix in JJ 56% of the time and your push is still +EV.

The bigger issue, however, IMO, is the fact that he is probably pretty unlikely to min check/raise top two here. At least not 100% of the time. And he also may CALL with QJ occasionally further decreasing your EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think these numbers are right. The pot was $870 on the turn, now it's $1220 after the $350 bet. Where does the 980 come from? Also, not all of that $2K is still in his stack.

[TheWorstPlayer]

That's true. I should stop posting EV calcs from work when I'm rushed. Replace with correct numbers and yield correct results. I'll do it later if no one else does it first. My last point still stands, though, that this calculation is probably not really that relevant.

[tdomeski]

I think someone once said (regarding bluffing), "don't bluff to try and make your opponent make a big laydown, bluff when you sense weakness."

I think this quote applies here, I mean honestly you are saying he either has QQ, JJ, 55, or QJ. He will NEVER lay down the first 3 and will probably rarely (30% maybe?) lay down QJ.

Pick a better spot.

[1800GAMBLER]

[ QUOTE ]
Although the 5 on the turn makes it much less likely he just picked up quads

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm curious if you even know how to work how much less likely! Impress us Richie!

[AZK]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm curious if you even know how to work how much less likely! Impress us Richie!

[/ QUOTE ]

Damn, saw that you replied and was hoping you would have some interesting commentary on this hand.

[JMP300z]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think his hand range is a bit larger than just QJ and 55. Limping and calling a raise UTG and playing the flop and turn in such a manner is also possible w/ AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AQ. Im not saying these are the most likely but to say he only has one of those three hands for a EV calc is kinda dumb. Is this guy so tight that he will only call this turn raise w/ a set?? Thats a better question.
-JP

[/ QUOTE ]

AA and KK I would say highly unlikely, but good point, AQ is possible too, although I don't think he check minraises the flop like that. The way he played the hand, pausing after i bet and then minraising reads to me like a hand that beats top pair. I think including only the hands I specified for the EV calc is still worthwhile because it gives us a general idea of how many combinations he has to fold in order for the play to be correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

My point was there is probably a 10 percent chance he has one of those hands even played that way, hell theres probably a few percent chance he has absolute AIR.

-JP

[Richie Rich]

[ QUOTE ]
Hero stated that he thinks villain is most likely holding 55 or QJ, so your first sentence is incorrect. Although the 5 on the turn makes it much less likely he is holding 55, since he would've just picked up quads.


[/ QUOTE ]
Oops...typed too fast and incorrectly delivered my thought the first time. I should make a habit of re-reading my posts before clicking "continue" in the future.

Thanks for catching that one, Maverick.

[Richie Rich]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm curious if you even know how to work how much less likely! Impress us Richie!

[/ QUOTE ]
Are you asking me to "calculate" how much less likely villain was to pick up quads? That's just silly. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

And if so, then you should've asked me to "work out how much..." As I explained in my reply to Yeti, I typed too quickly in my first message and did not correctly convey my thought. It happens. Just like your attempt to have fun with me.

I hope you're becoming a happier and more peaceful person, Jay. I really mean it.

[Yeti]

[ QUOTE ]

Oops...typed too fast and incorrectly delivered my thought the first time. I should make a habit of re-reading my posts before clicking "continue" in the future.

Thanks for catching that one, Maverick.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not trying to be awkward, and I don't see what your edit has changed.

I say the 5 on the turn means its now very unlikely Villain has 55.
You say, your sentence is incorrect. But the 5 on the turn means its now very unlikely Villain has 55.

But, whatever.

[1800GAMBLER]

Yep. Exactly by how much did the chances of 55 reduce when the 5 came? Impress us with your math sir.

[Richie Rich]

[ QUOTE ]
I say the 5 on the turn means its now very unlikely Villain has 55.
You say, your sentence is incorrect. But the 5 on the turn means its now very unlikely Villain has 55.


[/ QUOTE ]
I agree that the 5 on the turn makes it much less likely that villain holds 55. My statement was intended to convey the same message...but perhaps came across a bit awkward.

And I wasn't trying to come down on you by stating that hero has more than 4 outs (i.e. any Ace). I was just making a modification to your statement...sorry if it came across too abrasively.

Let's move on. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[ QUOTE ]
That's true. I should stop posting EV calcs from work when I'm rushed. Replace with correct numbers and yield correct results. I'll do it later if no one else does it first. My last point still stands, though, that this calculation is probably not really that relevant.

[/ QUOTE ]

I already did in my post at 6:52PM.

[Yeti]

np

[Richie Rich]

Never claimed to be a math whiz (that's already been established, correct?). Nevertheless, are you asking me to calculate the liklihood that villain is holding 55 after a second 5 fell on the turn?

If so, there would have only been one possible way for villain to be holding 55 after a second 5 fell on the turn; if that second 5 had NOT fallen on the turn, then there would have been three possible ways for villain to have 55. So villain went from having 3 different ways to be holding 55, to only one. Do you want me to calculate the difference in these percentages? Probably not.

But who cares...

[captZEEbo1]

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v645/captZEEbo/bee.jpg

I don't play high limits, but this math isn't too hard.

If villian only has JQ or 55 on the flop given his betting pattern, there are 9 combos of JQ possible and 3 combos of 55 possible. Given our assumptions, he has a set of 5s 25% of the time.

When the turn comes a 5, the number of combos giving villain quads drops to 1. If we still think he could only have JQ or 55, there is only 1 combo giving villian quads and still 9 giving him JQ. Under our assumptions, given new information, villain has quads here 10% of the time.

This holding is now 2.5 times less likely than it was on the flop.

[ QUOTE ]
I think these assumptions are VERY hypothetical, but this should be good practice for me for doing some EV calc... let me know if I make a mistake.

You are risking $1580 to win $1220. Thus, you need this bluff to work about 57% of the time.

There are 3 ways for him to have QJs, 3 ways for JJ, and one 55. Assuming he has one of these hands and will only fold if he has QJs, that means he only folds 3/7 of the time, assuming he always limps with JJ. To solve for the % of the time he's allowed to limp with JJ to have the bluff be correct, let's call that percentage 'p'. Then we have .57 = 3/(3p+4). Solving for p gives .42. So, given these assumptions, the bluff is good as long as he is holding JJ less than 42% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oops, that last sentence should read "... as long as he plays JJ like this less than 42% of the times when he has JJ."

[1800GAMBLER]

I was just having fun with Richie Rich

[TheWorstPlayer]

y arent there 6 jj and 6 qq?

[KaneKungFu123]

edit: i like your play, nh.

[ QUOTE ]
y arent there 6 jj and 6 qq?

[/ QUOTE ]
For the same reason there is only one 55 left, not two. The order of the two cards doesn't matter. For example, the JJ that are left are: JdJh JdJc JhJc. The J of spades is already on the board.

[octop]

Would he possibly play ace 5 of spades like this?

[Hattifnatt]

Fold turn seems better.

[BobboFitos]

whatever happened this hand?

[punter11235]

Trying to bluff out Villain out of 2pair when he well can have fullhouse is bad.
I think he sometimes folds QJ, but not too often, he is certainly not folding AA/KK if he accidentally have one of those, he is for sure not folding QQ/JJ/55, that leave us with AQ, maybe he is folding this 100% of the time but I wouldnt be so sure.
Bad spot imo.

[Prevaricator]

[ QUOTE ]
whatever happened this hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

he called with jacks full. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

If you put him on those hands with a high degree of certainty then the play is poor. He will be very unlikely to fold if you are correct, and with only one card to come is way ahead.
Since you backdoor your flush draw, and your straight draw isn't that obvious he might stick his neck out again on the river when you make any of your made hands, and will have a hard time folding to your raise if he does.

If you are less confident in where you put his hand, the play is good, if he folds a reasonable portion of the time after you make that bet then you're in good shape.