What's my optimal river play? 2/4 6-max

[Ghazban]

Assume no reads on villain; he was sitting out when I started and has sat in since his last BB. He hasn't done anything donkish in that time. How much do you bet the river and what do you do if you get checkraised?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP ($375.60)
CO ($394)
Button ($425.80)
SB ($406.80)
BB ($325.70)
Hero ($718.40)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. SB posts a blind of $2.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $16</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, BB calls $12.

Flop: ($34) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $30</font>, BB calls $30.

Turn: ($94) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: ($94) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ??</font>

[Bukem_]

Close to pot.

[xorbie]

$60 or so is my standard.

[Ghazban]

[ QUOTE ]
Close to pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Care to explain? I see very few worse hands calling a pot bet on this river.

[Bukem_]

Screwing around with a small bet opens you up to a cr from someone who might actually think a worse hand is good here, and leave you in a spot with little info about whether to call his cr or not.

Action doesn't indicate a boat, and players will look you up with worse hands.

Xorbie's 60 is smallest I would go, but that would be my standard for a weak player who can't fold at that price, and won't cr me without a monster.

[GrunchCan]

I've been thinking about river value bets like this. The only way to answer what's the most +EV play is to first figure out the answer to these questions:

How often will a PSB be called?
How often will a 2/3 PSB be called?
... 1/2 PSB?
... 1/3 PSB?


I'll put forth a guess.

1.0 PSB = .15 (a full PSB is called 15% of the time)
.66 PSB = .30
.5 PSB = .35
.33 PSB = .5

Do these estimates look reasonable?

[Ghazban]

Tou can't answer those questions without putting your opponent on a range of hands and figuring out which of those hands will call/raise with what frequency.

[Go_Blue88]

If Villian has a set, I think he'd either lead out, or raise you on the flop. On the turn, if he has a set, would he really check call another bet? I doubt it.

It looks like AQ is the only hand to worry about; I could see him c/c the flop and hope for a c/r on the turn. However, I don't think he'd go for the c/r again on the river after you already checked the turn (although I suppose your line could represent a draw).

Anyways, I'd bet 3/4 the pot or whatever your regular value bet is in these situations. If he raises you, I might call. I really don't know though; it's a tough call without a read.

[TheWorstPlayer]

What's he supposed to call with? I don't know man. I think this is close to a check. How weak is that? If I'm betting, I'm betting full pot and I'm calling a check/raise. I mean, if he's going to call with the J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif then he will call up to pot for sure. If he's not going to call, he's not going to call even a small bet. The only thing I can think of is perhaps betting small to INDUCE a check/raise, but I don't know. I think you're opening up a can of worms. Yeah, it would be a really weird line with a set, but it kinda makes sense that he is trying to control the pot on a monotone flop or he is trying to set up a turn check raise. And then when he gets to the river he is trying to induce a bluff because it is much more likely that you have nothing than that you have a hand that can call a bet. And then once you bet, he might as well check/raise to try to get a call from your hand or some other high diamond? I don't know. Tough spot. I don't see that much value in a bet here. I just don't see what hand he could have that would call. AxJ/images/graemlins/diamond.gif maybe?

[thatpfunk]

$30-40 with plans to call a small check-raise.

[MINETZ]

bet 30, get called.

[fuzzbox]

Bet 45. He might call with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ... hope he has AxJ/images/graemlins/diamond.gif and calls.

Gotta bet here, he might call. He's not likely to try to bluff you out here.

[fuzzbox]

Btw - I like to check behind on this flop with the nut-flush draw and quite possibly the best hand.

[DyessMan89]

A check-raise will put you at a tough decision. However, you cant play scared poker and check behind. You are losing a lot by doing this. Bet around 40 bucks, and most likley call a check-raise.

[Ghazban]

[ QUOTE ]
What's he supposed to call with? I don't know man. I think this is close to a check. How weak is that? If I'm betting, I'm betting full pot and I'm calling a check/raise. I mean, if he's going to call with the J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif then he will call up to pot for sure. If he's not going to call, he's not going to call even a small bet. The only thing I can think of is perhaps betting small to INDUCE a check/raise, but I don't know. I think you're opening up a can of worms. Yeah, it would be a really weird line with a set, but it kinda makes sense that he is trying to control the pot on a monotone flop or he is trying to set up a turn check raise. And then when he gets to the river he is trying to induce a bluff because it is much more likely that you have nothing than that you have a hand that can call a bet. And then once you bet, he might as well check/raise to try to get a call from your hand or some other high diamond? I don't know. Tough spot. I don't see that much value in a bet here. I just don't see what hand he could have that would call. AxJ/images/graemlins/diamond.gif maybe?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is pretty close to my thought process as soon as the Qd hit, though I didn't think betting full pot was going to get called by anything I beat nor would it fold anything I'm beating. Then I started thinking about how the longer I pause, the greater likelihood I get checkraise/bluffed so I decided I couldn't spend a lot of time figuring out exactly how much to bet.

I bet $55 thinking I might get a crying call from a slowplayed baby flush. He typed "fuc"[sic] in the chat, ran his clock down, and folded.

[TheWorstPlayer]

Seems to me like the only value here is if you can convince him to bluff, or if you can convince him that you're stone cold bluffing. So I think your bet amount is kinda worst. It should either be big to look like a bluff, or it should be small to induce a bluff. What was your plan if check/raised? Sounds like you were planning on folding. If you're planning on folding, I really see no value at all in betting. You could lose yourself a nice big pot and there is only a VERY small chance that you are getting called by a worse hand with that milking type bet. If you think it looks weak enough to get called by a really weak hand, then it must also look weak enough that he could check/raise bluff you...? I don't know. I think I check here, honestly.

[Ghazban]

I can't do that stuff against an unknown. I have no idea what level he's thinking at nor do I know what he needs to have to look me up. For all I know, he could've folded AQ to my "obvious" AA (mmmmmm... now that's some good hyperbole). Against unknowns without one of my weird once-every-few-thousand-hands strong gut instincts, I try to avoid tough decisions. I was calling a small checkraise and folding to a large one.

[djoyce003]

[ QUOTE ]
I can't do that stuff against an unknown. I have no idea what level he's thinking at nor do I know what he needs to have to look me up. For all I know, he could've folded AQ to my "obvious" AA (mmmmmm... now that's some good hyperbole). Against unknowns without one of my weird once-every-few-thousand-hands strong gut instincts, I try to avoid tough decisions. I was calling a small checkraise and folding to a large one.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ghaz......sure you can do that stuff against an unknown. You are playing against him after all...TWP's suggestions aren't really any different than your $55 bet. In fact, I like either of his suggestions more than your $55 value bet. The reason I like his lines more is because you have the knowledge that your bet *might* induce a reaction from him based on the size of it. A small weakish bet might induce a crying call, or it might look weak and make him try a bluff...since you know it might make him think this, it probably becomes +ev to call a checkraise. A large bet probably scares him enough to keep him from checkraising unless he has the stone cold nuts, but it also might make him think you are bluffing and induce a call from the naked J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

Your middle-of-the-road bet kind of keeps us from knowing what it might make him think...he might think that it's weak, and he could raise you here with the jack and cause you to fold. I'd prefer to make a bet that *could* induce some behavior and make my call based on that....against an unknown I think it might be a better play.

[fuzzbox]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I can't do that stuff against an unknown. I have no idea what level he's thinking at nor do I know what he needs to have to look me up. For all I know, he could've folded AQ to my "obvious" AA (mmmmmm... now that's some good hyperbole). Against unknowns without one of my weird once-every-few-thousand-hands strong gut instincts, I try to avoid tough decisions. I was calling a small checkraise and folding to a large one.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ghaz......sure you can do that stuff against an unknown. You are playing against him after all...TWP's suggestions aren't really any different than your $55 bet. In fact, I like either of his suggestions more than your $55 value bet. The reason I like his lines more is because you have the knowledge that your bet *might* induce a reaction from him based on the size of it. A small weakish bet might induce a crying call, or it might look weak and make him try a bluff...since you know it might make him think this, it probably becomes +ev to call a checkraise. A large bet probably scares him enough to keep him from checkraising unless he has the stone cold nuts, but it also might make him think you are bluffing and induce a call from the naked J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

Your middle-of-the-road bet kind of keeps us from knowing what it might make him think...he might think that it's weak, and he could raise you here with the jack and cause you to fold. I'd prefer to make a bet that *could* induce some behavior and make my call based on that....against an unknown I think it might be a better play.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really think that you get check-raised bluffed here approximately never, but that you might get called here by weaker hands. There aren't many of them that call ... granted, but still its a value bet.
There also arent many(any?) hands that check this river expecting hero to bet.
Heros check on the turn make it very unlikely that hero will end up betting this river, so when villain checks, its not very likely that he is checking and planning to check-raise.

I think value bet here has positive expectation.

[TheWorstPlayer]

Hmm...I think this is an interesting question, but I think that you will not like the answer. I'm doing this as I go, though, so I don't know the results yet.

You bet $55, he calls X% of the time, he check raises min Y% of the time, he check raises big Z% of the time, he folds 100-X-Y-Z% of the time. Let's assume that he always min check/raises a full house here.

We get 55*X-110*Y (he's probably never min check/raising a worse hand here, but I agree it's hard to fold to a min check/raise here)-55*Z. So basically (X-Z)&gt;2*Y means it's profitable for us to bet 55. So we have to think that he has a hand like AxJ/images/graemlins/diamond.gif twice as often as he has a boat here, even if he never makes a big check/raise. But the percentages that we're talking about here are pretty small. So let's say he calls 55 10% of the time. How often does he have a boat? Maybe 5% of the time? I don't know, but the 10% seems kinda high actually. Also, this is not even taking into account the fact that you lose the whole pot if he ever bluff check/raises you big. It just seems like it's not worth it. VERY thin value bet if you don't think he's bluff check/raising you which is the only way I see any real value in a bet here. Or if he'll call you down even without a flush. Then for sure it's a bet.

[fuzzbox]

I think he has a boat AND tries for a check-raise ...ohhhh about 0.0001% of the time.
I think he can call at least twice as often as that.

Do I win ? Whats my prize ? You have to pay post and packing for it ... right ?

[Ghazban]

Just to make the math even more complicated, try including the value of not showing the hand down. Checking the nut flush on the end here even with the paired board will raise eyebrows for anybody paying attention at the table and might cause them to play differently against me in the future.

In a similar circumstance, I flat called a bet on the river of a drawless board with bottom set (lost to flopped top set in a raised pot A63r flop) and some doofus at the table drew attention to it in the chat so now the whole table knew I was capable of not losing all my money in a set over set scenario. I left the table shortly afterward because everybody seemed to be paying more attention to playing well.

The value of not showing can be significant from a metagame perspective. Unfortunately, its difficult to quantify as you never know who was paying attention, who wasn't, and what effect that information will have.

[TheWorstPlayer]

You're 100% right. I said right away that it's a tough spot. But just think how much respect your river bets/raises will have in the future!/images/graemlins/grin.gif

And fuzzbox is a doofus. /images/graemlins/blush.gif I explained why this line makes sense for a set/boat in a previous post. Maybe villains don't think like that, but maybe they do...

[BobboFitos]

i would bet and fold to a checkraise

why are people are afraid about getting checkraised? no one checks a set shorthanded 3 handed, he doesn't have a straight flush, and he didn't hit runner runner queen.

unless he was mr.trickster you will virtually never see a c.r here (if i eat my words here, "wow" /images/graemlins/smile.gif )

bet and be happy because people make terrible calls with a wide range of hands here, as in possibly 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif and the such

edit: the reason i am saying to fold to a c/r (even though i would expect one close to never) is because he simply can not be c/r a worse hand for value, and for a guy to pull off a big bluff on this board, when you easily could have AQ, AA, QQ, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif etc, all things that people normally (meaning the K and J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif) dont fold, takes alot of guts and stupidity someone needs to show me to be a donk first.

so it means it must be a superman who can check 33 or 44 all the way to the river to ellicit value from the flush and checkraise. but really, this rarely happens, so most of the time bet and be happy when middle lfushes try to pick you off.


BTW, i like the bet of 55, i see exactly what others are saying, but it's like the perfect price for someone to pay sheriff.

[Komodo]

How about a small bet on the river? There is obviously value in not showing the hand plus the chance that a weaker hand will call for whatever reason. Of course a tricky opponent migth check the river with a full boat and checkraise all-in or something there, but I dont think there is any reason to lose your stack because of that. Also a small bet will open up for small river bluffs later on, which is not as expensive as big bluffs.

[ QUOTE ]
Assume no reads on villain; he was sitting out when I started and has sat in since his last BB. He hasn't done anything donkish in that time. How much do you bet the river and what do you do if you get checkraised?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP ($375.60)
CO ($394)
Button ($425.80)
SB ($406.80)
BB ($325.70)
Hero ($718.40)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. SB posts a blind of $2.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $16</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, BB calls $12.

Flop: ($34) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $30</font>, BB calls $30.

Turn: ($94) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: ($94) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ??</font>

[/ QUOTE ]

what happened?
how much did you bet?
what did villain do?

Eveyone say a set of 4 and 3 is quite unlikely in this spot. But what was villain supposed to do with a flopped small set? Open or check raise? That's a situation i don't know to play.

[cs3]

[ QUOTE ]

I bet $55 thinking I might get a crying call from a slowplayed baby flush. He typed "fuc"[sic] in the chat, ran his clock down, and folded.

[/ QUOTE ]

exactly what i thought when i read the opening post. what else can he possibly have here besides a hand like 89 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif? slowplayed it on flop, missed his checkraise on turn, and the absolute worst card in the deck hit him on the river.