$22: missed push?

[45suited]

I felt like a wuss after folding here. Is this a terribly missed push from the button given the stack sizes? I had pushed 2 out of the last 3 hands and was concerned about table image, but I think that I should have ignored that and pushed anyway.


UTG: corsair081 ( $1161 )
CO: TcWalt80 ( $1620 )
Button: HERO ( $1315 )
SB: diveunderh20 ( $2377 )
BB: jdsmitt ( $1527 )

Blinds(75/150)

** Dealing down cards **

Dealt to HERO [ 6d 7d ]

corsair081 folds.
TcWalt80 folds.
HERO folds.

[Sabrazack]

Sorry, but i really really disagree. Folding is fine here unless SB and BB are very tight. Why do you want to push 7 high from the button when you have 9xbb behind? Especially if you pushed the last 2/3 hands..

[45suited]

Look at the stack sizes, especially the BB. He would need a very strong hand to call. I was actually quite torn here and wasn't sure if folding was correct.

[zambonidrivr]

I think this is an easy fold. If blinds are at 2 bills, I push this all the way. You have time to actually catch a hand and FE left.

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry, but i really really disagree. Folding is fine here unless SB and BB are very tight. Why do you want to push 7 high from the button when you have 9xbb behind? Especially if you pushed the last 2/3 hands..

[/ QUOTE ]

What he said.

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry, but i really really disagree. Folding is fine here unless SB and BB are very tight. Why do you want to push 7 high from the button when you have 9xbb behind? Especially if you pushed the last 2/3 hands..

[/ QUOTE ]

Cuz there's only two players left to act and I have significant FE. The blinds are significant, and if called by a couple of overs, I have a great suckout hand. I'm ~58-42 vs non-paired overs such as AK if they happen to pick up a hand. I'd like to begin to seperate myself from the field with everyone bunched together.

Well, I guess I don't feel bad about folding... maybe I should feel bad about considering pushing in the first place? /images/graemlins/smirk.gif I gotta believe that at least some good players would push here though. I seems like a fairly close decision to me for the reasons that I have given.

[Sabrazack]

This is not as bad as i first thought. If you put both players calling ranges on 66+ ATs+ and Ajo+ its a clear push. However since there are alot of trigger happy players in the 22$ tourneys that will have ranges closer to 44+, A7s+ A9+ KJs+ and KQ i still say its a fold. But if you know they are both decent players and they don't know you are a friggin pushbot its a clear push.

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
and they don't know you are a friggin pushbot

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey... thanks for noticing. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[playtitleist]

At the $22s the ranges go down after 45suited pushes from the button on back-to-back orbits. So, I like a fold here. Even taking one orbit off gives SB and BB a break and let's them "forget" you are taking their blinds. Oftentimes, letting them know you are not pushing every time bumps thier range back up for the next go 'round.

Edit: Mis-read OP. I don't think it's as big a deal that 45Suited pushed 2 outta last 3 hands. BB and SB are less likely to care that he stole other people's blinds, so the ranges are probably still high.

Still, I like a fold here to let them know you are NOT push-botting.

[pooh74]

Its not the hand so much as what you gain here. You'll probably get away with it, but I am not sure if the risk is worth the reward. would you push 72 here? because its not much different.

like another poster said, BB=200 and that makes enough of a difference for me.

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
would you push 72 here? because its not much different.

[/ QUOTE ]

67s is MUCH, MUCH different than 72o. I have legitimate suckout chances if I run into a hand.

I pass on pushing in some spots when others say that pushing is correct. But I'm more likely to push in spots like this, where I'm trying to seperate myself from the pack. If I fold here, I'm not desperate by any means, but after taking the blinds again, I would be ~5 BB. I have very good FE if I push here, regardless of my table image, due to the stack sizes.

27o vs. AKo: 32-68
67s vs. AKo: 42-58

My winning chances are 10 real percentage points higher with 67s than with 27o. Winning 42% of the time is actually 31% more than winning 32% of the time. A very significant difference.

[suited_ace]

They do need a very good hand to call you, but you can't assume they know that. There are plenty of monkeys at the $22s that will call you w/ way lesser hands than you would possibly imagine.

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
They do need a very good hand to call you, but you can't assume they know that. There are plenty of monkeys at the $22s that will call you w/ way lesser hands than you would possibly imagine.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, you are correct.

I guess this relates to a concept that I have heard others refer to in passing, but has not been talked about much.

I base my pushes not only on ICM, but also on, for lack of a better word, larger game factors. You begin to recognize what 'type' of game will take place based upon the stack sizes of all the remaining players. This is not going to be a game where folding ITM will happen. A bunch of us are somewhat comfortable, yet somewhat short in chips. Soon, the blinds will be even higher and many of us are about to become shortstacks.

In spots like this, the aggressive player will usually prevail. I'm probably not explaining this concept well, but I think that a strength of mine is recognizing what style of play (when faced with close decisions) is called for based upon the chipstacks and blinds. This is a game that I will have to be aggressive and gamble a bit.

I hope this makes sense, but it probably just sounds like a bunch of mush. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

I'm writing this, not to sound like some kind of expert, just to see if anyone else has thought about this concept.

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

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[ QUOTE ]
Sorry, but i really really disagree. Folding is fine here unless SB and BB are very tight. Why do you want to push 7 high from the button when you have 9xbb behind? Especially if you pushed the last 2/3 hands..

[/ QUOTE ]

Cuz there's only two players left to act and I have significant FE. The blinds are significant, and if called by a couple of overs, I have a great suckout hand. I'm ~58-42 vs non-paired overs such as AK if they happen to pick up a hand. I'd like to begin to seperate myself from the field with everyone bunched together.

Well, I guess I don't feel bad about folding... maybe I should feel bad about considering pushing in the first place? /images/graemlins/smirk.gif I gotta believe that at least some good players would push here though. I seems like a fairly close decision to me for the reasons that I have given.

[/ QUOTE ]

In tournament play, Sklansky advocates not taking big risks in close situations (slightly +EV) and capiatalizing on highly +EV situations (or something to that effect). Since this appears to be close, it sounds like you made the correct play by folding.

[caretaker1]

I think you can argue either way here (analysis Harrington style here, or at least I'm trying):
For pushing: Versatile hand (holds up well against two overs), only two players behind you, both of whom you would hurt if you beat them, you're on the bubble so the players are tightening up, your M is low
For folding: You'll still have fold equity on later hands if you fold, you've already pushed a few times recently opening up the range of calling hands, your playing at $22 where there will likely be looser calling standards, when you are called you will virtually always be an underdog.
This could go either way (I would guess whichever way you decide you're not gaining/losing a whole lot).

My $.02

[ilya]

If you had pushed 1 or none out of the last 3 hands, I think you would have to push here. Given that you've pushed 2 out of the last 3 hands, I think it's close enough that pushing and folding are both reasonable options.

[suited_ace]

I agree with everything you say. There are meta-game implications on top of ICM. If you're pushing too much, your opponents will widen their calling ranges.

You're already the most aggressive player, you pushed 2 out of the last 3 hands, you don't need to push another one. If you want to get fancy, you could limp and let their trapping paranoia give you another easy pot (bet any flop after it's checked to you). I'm not a big fan of fancy plays at the low levels though, so I think this is a pretty straightforward fold.

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not a big fan of fancy plays at the low levels though

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with you here completely.

I'm a bit surprised with the number of 'easy fold' responses. (I realize that yours was not one of them.) If not for table image, I push here 100% of the time with the same stack size / blinds. Taking table image into account, I suppose it's a close fold, but I hated doing it.

[suited_ace]

With a better image I might push as well, but I still think it's borderline. If the table hasn't been too push-crazy, I'm folding and waiting for a better spot.

[microbet]

Does anyone do the ICM calcs around here anymore, or was that just a fad?

I don't usually push here, but would if the table felt tight. I could be wrong though. I sorta feel lately like I'm slipping into a more Lorinda-like high ITM/similar ROI game.

[jeffraider]

I push this everytime if I haven't been pushing but if you've just pushed two out of three, I'd say that's just enough to make this a fold. I've recently been noticing that their calling ranges don't loosen THAT much after repeated pushes but they do loosen just enough here I think. If you had just pushed once before I'd crank this for sure.

[curtains]

This is a fold in my book. I personally would never consider anything but folding. I also don't think it's close enough to debate about, but thats just me.

[jeffraider]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a fold in my book. I personally would never consider anything but folding. I also don't think it's close enough to debate about, but thats just me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is that because of his recent pushing activity, or you're saying that you fold this everytime in a vacuum and it's not close?

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
would you push 72 here? because its not much different.

[/ QUOTE ]

67s is MUCH, MUCH different than 72o. I have legitimate suckout chances if I run into a hand.

I pass on pushing in some spots when others say that pushing is correct. But I'm more likely to push in spots like this, where I'm trying to seperate myself from the pack. If I fold here, I'm not desperate by any means, but after taking the blinds again, I would be ~5 BB. I have very good FE if I push here, regardless of my table image, due to the stack sizes.

27o vs. AKo: 32-68
67s vs. AKo: 42-58

My winning chances are 10 real percentage points higher with 67s than with 27o. Winning 42% of the time is actually 31% more than winning 32% of the time. A very significant difference.

[/ QUOTE ]

sorry, I didnt mean for my example to be taken quite so literally (my bad though...shouldnt have used it). My point is, of hands that are calling you here at this blind level, you MIGHT AS WELL be pushing any two against that range. Keep in mind the blinds are only 150 and calling ranges are going to consist of mostly over pairs...where you are way behind. You AK example is poor bc it is only one of two unpaired hands that calls you here...maybe three.

My assertion is all about the blind level here, not the cards so much. That said, i dont think there is really much debate that this is actually a pretty neutral situation. You are not going to get called as often as you would at higher blinds, but when you do, you will win-suckout less often. To reduce variance, I might sit this one out though.

[Chaostracize]

I'm a freakin' maniac. But if, like you said, you actually pushed 2 of 3 last hands, then I fold this because I would expect to be called by K high, or J high who "fainlly caught you."

[curtains]

We have almost 9x the BB on the button. Okay I remember doing some studies that against tightish types of players it made sense to move allin on the button with like 7-8x times the BB. However there are a lot of insane people who will make very loose calls, this is a one off the bubble situation that means you should usually be slightly tighter in such situations and there will be better spots in the future for a good player.

Basically I hate pushing.

[curtains]

btw I've done the math...against the following calling range:

66+,ATs+,AJo+

its +.5% in EV. This is a reasonable calling range, however many pepole will be somewhat looser.

Against the following range:

44+,A7s+,A9o+,KJs+

Its -.1% EV to push. Now I don't know how many people will follow the above range, but I suspect that you will see the occasional call from A6s and such. In all, you are pushing a very thin edge that depends on knowing your opponents tendencies very specifically. Meanwhile you have enough chips to expect a better spot in the future.