Who bets this river?

[Ironman]

Another 3/6 UB full table game.

My cards are 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif J /images/graemlins/heart.gif 5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif A /images/graemlins/spade.gif

I have a good handle on my opponents. I've played against all of them so Pokertracker is keeping me up to speed on their aggressiveness.

I'm in middle position.

And the table views me with these stats (if anyone else is looking):

24.10% VPIP
+5.9 BB/100
64.6% Won $ at SD
1.92 PF raise


Pre flop

3 folds to me, I limp, 2 more callers, SB raises, BB folds, the rest of us call.

SB has a good VPIP number but is a losing player in my database.

Flop (5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif 6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif)

SB bets, 3 callers

Turn (2 /images/graemlins/club.gif)

SB bets, I raise, fold, fold, SB reraises, I cap it (with my pair of 5's), he calls.

River (9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif)

he checks.....

Who bets the river?

Am I getting 3/4'rd or the one doing the 3/4'ering?

Dave

[junkmail3]

Check.

I don't think you can scoop, so you won't gain anything by betting.

[Ribbo]

Your opponent could easily have A3 diamonds and you are quartering him. Pretty much every other hand where he is checking the river, you are chopping with his straight. I would bet, if he does have A3, more than likely your pair of fives is good for high.

[GooperMC]

I think this is read dependant. How loose / aggressive is this player? What is his W$SD? With no read I would lean towards betting.

However I would have folded the flop.

[pipes]

[ QUOTE ]
I would have folded the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I definitely agree with this, especially since you did not close the betting.

To check or bet the river is essentially a neutral EV decision. Maybe about 70% its a split, 15% you 3/4, 15% he 3/4s. In long run, betting or checking these down probably won't make much of a difference.

[junkmail3]

[ QUOTE ]

However I would have folded the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

So, you play this hand only looking for a high, or a 2 on the flop?

Or are you folding because his raise says 'A2'?

[DyessMan89]

Folding on the flop is marginal. Its not that clear cut, but 10-1 odds on your call, 11-1 to hit your duece, (probobly have other outs) I think you can take another card with your 2nd nut low. If I dont hit something good Im not calling the turn, however.

As it turns out, Im probobly checking behind. He doesnt have to have A39x (although he might) but Im just not ready to be check-raised and have to put in 2 bets when I could have just checked with only my nut low and 5's.

[sy_or_bust]

It is much worse than that on the flop. You have, realistically, a one-way hand that needs a deuce. Your odds are cut in half. And you are first to act when SB bets, so you don't know what the action will be behind you (though you can judge by the passivity). This is a clear fold on the flop.

[DyessMan89]

[ QUOTE ]
It is much worse than that on the flop. You have, realistically, a one-way hand that needs a deuce. Your odds are cut in half. And you are first to act when SB bets, so you don't know what the action will be behind you (though you can judge by the passivity). This is a clear fold on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yup, my mistake. Fold the flop.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It is much worse than that on the flop. You have, realistically, a one-way hand that needs a deuce. Your odds are cut in half. And you are first to act when SB bets, so you don't know what the action will be behind you (though you can judge by the passivity). This is a clear fold on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yup, my mistake. Fold the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

1. I consider folding the flop, depending on my reads.

2. Why raise when you hit the deuce? OP has little chance at a high hand. Call and try to keep the other two players in. They are your potential profit. The raise and resulting folds probably guaranteed yourself no better than getting your money back, and you may wind up quartering yourself.

[Ironman]

Niss,

You make a very good point about keeping the other players involved...and that is exactly how I would have played this hand a month ago.

But...after reading the PLO8 posts, I've learned that sometimes...when you have the nut low and a marginal high hand you want those other high draws out.

So, I made a pot limit type play in a limit game.

I am absolutely certain that if I had played this hand passively, that one of those two guys who I had knocked out with my raise would have backed into a high hand and taken half of my pot.

Remember...Pokertracker tells me that the original opponent has good VPIP for this game, but is a losing player.

When that 2 comes up, it could very easily have counterfitted his perfect low and given him a so-so low.

When he raises back at me, I know he has either A 3 or a good high hand.

It turned out that he DID have an A 3 just like me...but he DID NOT have anything to go with it even though he was raising like there was no tomorrow.

He checked the river...I bet...he called...I took down 3/4'ers of the pot.

Dave

[benwood]

It looks to me like Pipe's EV analysis is right on. In a situation like this where I estimate my EV to be neutral, I would rather bet than check because it gives me a chance to look more laggy at no cost. I like to maintain a laggy image in omaha more than a tight image because I believe this increases my average win rate by encouraging more loose calls.