Like to talk about our action on this turn

[QTip]

Villian seems like he's probably read SSH one or twice. Seems like he has a clue...but that's about it.

What's your action on this turn?

Hero: AKo on button

EP limps, MP limps, I raise, blinds fold limpers call

Flop: QQ4

Checked to me, I bet, EP raises, MP folds, I call

Turn: A

Ep bets, you?

[SeaEagle]

Isn't this an easy WA/WB call?

[krimson]

I think we're somewhat wa/wb here. I would call the turn and river, and bet if checked to.

I have a hard time not putting EP on a Q, he limped pre-flop which suggests hands like QJ, QT, as well as hands like 66-88, maybe 99 if he's a bit passive.

[crunchy1]

I like a call. If you think he's making the flop raise with a mid-pair we don't want to shut him out on the turn. Raising anywhere from this point on is only costing us money when we're behind (assuming Villian-with-a-clue knows how to find the fold button).

[toss]

I think this is an easy call too.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
Isn't this an easy WA/WB call?

[/ QUOTE ]

I really don't think so.

[Octopus]

I think the turn is a call. I think we will be lucky to get another bet from him and I think the best chance of getting it is on the river. (I think that he is quite unlikely to have a queen, by the way.)

[mdob]

Hmm, I think we're ahead a lot here. He'd probably raise KQ and fold QT. That, of course, leaves QJ, which he certainly could have. I also think he could have just about any pocket pair below 99/88.
I'd call the turn and raise any river, folding to a three-bet.

[toss]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Isn't this an easy WA/WB call?

[/ QUOTE ]

I really don't think so.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you thinking that he has A4 often enough that we can raise the turn?

[Octopus]

Let me go further.

I think he has a queen a very small percentage of the time. (If he had a queen, then the most anyone without a queen (or pocket 4s) has is 2 outs and MP is almost certainly drawing essentially dead. Check-raising to drive him out would be an error. Unless there was a possible flush draw, but surely QTip would have mentioned that. /images/graemlins/smile.gif )

If he does not have a queen, then he himself has no more than two outs to win (if he has a pocket pair) or three outs to tie (if he has a weaker ace) or both (if he has exactly A4). So by not raising him out right now, I am giving him something worth a bit less than half a big bet. (about 2 outs times about 8 bets implied). If I think I can win an extra bet from him on the river 50% more often than I can win the extra bet from him now then I should wait. If there is some chance he will put in two more bets, then that percentage has to be even higher.

Since I do not believe he will put two more bets in given his description (I could be wrong) and since I think he could easily bet again with a weaker ace, I think that there is a 50% chance he will put in a bet on the river and so I think we should just call the turn. If we thought he would not bet or call a bet on the river, then we should raise him out right now. (Also, if we thought it likely that he would call a raise here, we should raise. I do not.)

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
Hmm, I think we're ahead a lot here. He'd probably raise KQ and fold QT. That, of course, leaves QJ, which he certainly could have. I also think he could have just about any pocket pair below 99/88.
I'd call the turn and raise any river, folding to a three-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's where I'm at with it...let this 2 outer hand hang itself. I think a raise folds him now. Whereas, he'll probably bet the river again and might even make a desperation call at that point.

[toss]

I think a river will will often be met with folds by midpairs and punished by trips. The only hand I see villain paying off with is an Ace which villain is less likely to have.

[flair1239]

If we are giving him credit for being a thinking player or one who is trying to play well...

A PP would be right up there in my list of hand ranges.

The deal is, a raise here is goning to blow him off a lot of stuff. He will probably call down with a suited Ace (If that is what he limped). Maybe he calls down with a PP, so again information on how much he likes to showdown would be helpful.

As for hands, I really discount 44 here, because I am not sure he would be looking to CR the flop with a set, I would expect a donkbet. Kind of the same thing with the queens, KQs, KQo, QJs, JTs, QTs so what 16 combinations there..

Stuff we are ahead of say AJs-A2s, PP 22-99.

So depends how often he calls down.

I do think with most of these hands he is check calling the river, so I think it would be safe to assume an uncalled turn raise is costing you a bet.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
I think a river will will often be met with folds by midpairs and punished by trips. The only hand I see villain paying off with is an Ace which villain is less likely to have.

[/ QUOTE ]

Our hand is so strong here, I don't think the % of his calling really matters much.

[Octopus]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think a river will will often be met with folds by midpairs and punished by trips. The only hand I see villain paying off with is an Ace which villain is less likely to have.

[/ QUOTE ]

Our hand is so strong here, I don't think the % of his calling really matters much.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he was talking about a river raise. Is that what you are talking about, because I think raising the river is too much. (Betting if checked to is clear.)

[istewart]

[ QUOTE ]
I think a river will will often be met with folds by midpairs and punished by trips. The only hand I see villain paying off with is an Ace which villain is less likely to have.

[/ QUOTE ]

You really think Villain has trips here? I don't see him having that like ever given the preflop and flop play. This looks like 77 or something to me.

[MrEngenic]

I don't see any reason to raise here. Call down, bet if checked to on the river, call a river checkraise.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think a river will will often be met with folds by midpairs and punished by trips. The only hand I see villain paying off with is an Ace which villain is less likely to have.

[/ QUOTE ]

Our hand is so strong here, I don't think the % of his calling really matters much.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he was talking about a river raise. Is that what you are talking about, because I think raising the river is too much. (Betting if checked to is clear.)

[/ QUOTE ]

Given the action and the way this hand played out, I think we're good just about as often as if we had the nuts. I think not raising this turn or river is a pretty bad mistake. I just thought the river was a better choice.

[Octopus]

[ QUOTE ]
Given the action and the way this hand played out, I think we're good just about as often as if we had the nuts. I think not raising this turn or river is a pretty bad mistake. I just thought the river was a better choice.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fair enough. He could call with AJ and, if your description was misleading, with worse. Of course, if your description was misleading then maybe he has protection on the brain (like so many did here last Fall) and check-raised out of habit with a queen. I suspect that a river raise has little value; I certainly would not call it a bad mistake. But it is likely +EV, so I retract my comment.

[flair1239]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think a river will will often be met with folds by midpairs and punished by trips. The only hand I see villain paying off with is an Ace which villain is less likely to have.

[/ QUOTE ]

Our hand is so strong here, I don't think the % of his calling really matters much.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he was talking about a river raise. Is that what you are talking about, because I think raising the river is too much. (Betting if checked to is clear.)

[/ QUOTE ]

Given the action and the way this hand played out, I think we're good just about as often as if we had the nuts. I think not raising this turn or river is a pretty bad mistake. I just thought the river was a better choice.

[/ QUOTE ]

With a lot of hands that you beat, I am not sure you are getting a chance to raise the river.

With a player who is trying to play well (which is what I am interpreting your read as), I think you are going to see small aces and mid PP check/call fairly often.

I think you run the risk of folding many PP with a raise after the Ace.

I would have to get out a pencil here and have a little more information stats wise. But just off hand I think it is going to be difficult to get (2) additional bets out of this hand. I think raising the turn is going to scare off many hands that would call a river bet. I think a portion of the time, you may get a (call/check/fold) this would be mainly due to indecision on his part. I think if he has a suited ace you will get two additional bets out of him with a turn raise...

However, for some reason (Reason being I think that the flop CR was a little cute for a naked ace, but seems to make more sense with a PP, putting you on AK) I am really leaning toward him having a PP and I think we can get one more from him, but probably not two.

[QTip]

not getting a chance to raise the river is one of the reasons I posted this hand. However, I think he may feel he's representing a Q, and it's normally hard for most people to stop when they've started, so I felt I could get at least one more out of him by waiting...maybe 2..but mostly likely not. However, if my read was right, and I felt confident it was, you have to raise anyway, and just hope he calls 1 time.....ever.

[Entity]

He's got 77 such a ridiculously huge portion of the time here. I call. Sometimes I raise the river, but only against opponents who hate being raised on the river and will pay off (there are many of them though).

Rob