How often should you value bet the river?

[winky51]

Lets look at a few types of players and where you can value bet and call/fold to a river raise. This is for heads up.

Assume a good hand but not great hand.

The fish that calls down with A high:
I feel if you have middle pair keep betting and fold if he raises. I never see these types bluff. Usually have low PRF and TAF.

The tricky fish. He's a fish alright but slowplays lots of top pairs, can even raise on the river with middle pair.
I'd say check call middle pair, bet top and be prepared to call a raise.

The calling fish. He calls down any pair and once in a while he bluffs at the pot if he thinks he is a head because he is too... foolish, to think that he is behind. I see quite a few of these types that bet middle pair into 3 PF callers. Usually with a connecting kicker.
Still bet the river and depending on the board call the raise???

A TAG. Whats a good value bet vs them? Middle pair or better?

[SeaEagle]

winky, I think your questions are too broad and don't include enough information. Things like board texture and pot size. You can value bet a lot more in a bigger pot since you'll get called with weaker hands. 2nd pair on an AKx-x-x board that was raised PF is a lot weaker than 2nd pair on a J93 board.

You also need to have a feel for how often you're going to get raised when you're beat. Against calling stations who never raise without the nuts, you can value bet more because you only have to be ahead over 50% of the time to make a profit. Against an aggressive player, you need to be ahead more often because you're going to end up paying 2 bets when you're behind but only gaining one bet (or none) when you're ahead.

[toss]

Depends on what type of TAG. (13/6/2 ABC TAG, or 20/11/2.7 Very Good TAG) And depends on a lot of other things. (Board texture, position, table image, etc.)

But I'll say right now that you can more often induce a bluff from better players or aggressive bettors.

[winky51]

Yea it was tough writing this question. So many variables. I often find myself in a situation where the board looks scary..

Jd 8s 3d 6c 9d for example

And I hold AJ vs a very fishy player calling down all the way. One of those calling with any pair all the way. So I check the river because its way too dangerous, J9, 2 diamonds, 98, J9, QT, T7.. only to find out he's calling me down with a pair of 55s.

Would a good estimate is to quickly determine all the reasonable hands he is calling on the flop (vs fish) and see if by the river you are ahead of 50% of those hands?

[crunchy1]

[ QUOTE ]
Yea it was tough writing this question. So many variables. I often find myself in a situation where the board looks scary..

Jd 8s 3d 6c 9d for example

And I hold AJ vs a very fishy player calling down all the way. One of those calling with any pair all the way. So I check the river because its way too dangerous, J9, 2 diamonds, 98, J9, QT, T7.. only to find out he's calling me down with a pair of 55s. Would a good estimate is to quickly determine all the reasonable hands he is calling on the flop (vs fish) and see if by the river you are ahead of 50% of those hands?

[/ QUOTE ]
No, because he's not going to have that range of hands evenly distributed (i.e. he's going to have the weaker hands in the range a larger percentage of the time).

This particular situation is an easy value bet against a fishy player because he'll call down with many weaker hands.

[SeaEagle]

[ QUOTE ]
Jd 8s 3d 6c 9d for example

And I hold AJ vs a very fishy player calling down all the way. One of those calling with any pair all the way. So I check the river because its way too dangerous, J9, 2 diamonds, 98, J9, QT, T7.. only to find out he's calling me down with a pair of 55s.


[/ QUOTE ]
I think listing specific hands is a better way to explore your 'value bet' question than just asking generic questions. (I meant to say that in my original reply but forgot).

Anyway, in the hand you show, I'm value betting this river HU a lot. Sometimes you'll be up against a flush. And sometimes you'll even get caught by someone who lucked into the gutshot. But most of the time, your fishy opponent is calling you down with a mediocre hand that's behind you.

The less fishy the opponent, the less likely I'm going to bet. And against really aggressive folks, this board is an excellent spot to induce a bluff (if you're OOP) since many people can't stop themselves from bluffing on this board.

And as soon as you introduce more than one opponent, the odds that someone caught on the river goes way up, and I'm more inclined to check.

[winky51]

I get it. Makes sense. My brain was starting to lean that way from the experiences I was getting. Now when should you call a river raise, who?

I assume if the pot is large enough always call. The number of times some player tried to pull crap on me at the river is far greater than the # of times a player had a legit hand compared to the size of the pot.