Do players like this increase your variance?

[gunbuster]

Maybe I'm just steaming, but I'm wondering if loose calling stations can increase your variance considerably? I usually don't have any problems w/ tight-passive players where I can usually tell where I stand in a hand.

However, I've notice that when I sit at a table w/ a mix of loose players, mostly passive, one or two aggressors, my variance increases significantly. I'm talking about players that will call down to the river with just about anything.

Empirically, I'm led to believe that this is a good thing. However, I've been seeing huge swings in these situations. I'll lead the betting to the river, only to have them finally play back at me on the final card. I'm kinda puzzled at what they have, so I make a weak call and find that my top pair has been out drawn by bottom pair, or my top two pair gets beaten by a runner-runner straight.

Surely these are the people that I want at my table, but would I be correct in assuming that because they'll play anything, I should expect greater variance. Anyone know how much? Generally, at a 5-10 table, I may buy in for about $300 -- do I need more?

The other thing that I find happens is that after a few of these, I start to steam and somehow all the chips go bye bye... I guess I need to read that Zen and poker book...

[Dynasty]

Aggressive opponents are a bigger cause of variance. Loose-passive opponents have very little impact.

[rigoletto]

Dynasty is right. I would guess that your variance in these games comes from steaming/tilting when you are outdrawn, so keep an eye on it.

[SoBeDude]

But at a table full of fish, doesn't the implied collusion also have a similar effect?

I've seen my variance take a jump up when I started playing at a live 10-20 game where half the table will call me down. Bluffs are worthless, preflop raises are worthless. they'll stay in with a flush draw on the flop even if you 3-bet and they have to call 3 cold.

Also there are several players who just like to gamble it up. Who will play basically any two cards, and will cap it ANY time it gets to them for 3 bets preflop. But don't mistake this for aggression.

One in particular capped it preflop with 22 (put in all 4 bets at once) just because if he hits his set "I'll win a big pot".

A few days ago I raised UTG with AKo. I got 4 callers. One called me with 24s. flop came 24K rainbow. I paid her off all the way to the river. she never raised me.

Or I raise UTG with AA and get NINE CALLERS. (I folded on the flop to a board of KKJ)

So how is this game not increasing my varience?

-Scott

[Al_Capone_Junior]

I think that you'll experience more frustration from loose passive players than you will increased variance. However, loose aggressive players will definitely increase your variance big time.

I love the logic of the 22 guy.

As for your other example, you showed how a loose passive player might have you beat, but is not going to cause you to have a large increase in variance. If I somehow wound up with bottom two against your top pair with AK, I would have won a considerably bigger pot from you than the loose passive lady did.

So again, I would say loose passive is not a large cause of increased variance, but it's often a cause of increased frustration. I HATE the old check-and-call-and-check-and-call some of the time. I want to yell out "Hey! Are you ALIVE in there?" But I don't, I'm just secretly glad I didn't lose more, and glad my raises are getting cold-called by 42s.

al

[markc212]

I kinda disagree with the replies. But not totally.

Simply put, it depends on how well you adjust your play. Having a table full of tight/aggressives is very different from a table full of loose/passives. While it's usually the case that your average table is a mix of both, I do come across tables where that's definitely not the case.

In a completely loose/passive game, if you value too highly your pocket pairs, you will most definitely experience increased variance caused by those frustrating rivering blowouts. Yes, you will still be top dog, but your strong moves don't have the same impact as at a regular game.

However, by adjusting your play to include slightly more suited connectors and understanding the diminished value of pocket pairs or top pair, you can reduce your variance significantly by folding more appropriately and drawing out on them more often (with justified odds).

Similarly, against a completely tight/aggressive table, you should play your high pocket pairs extremely aggressively and limit your mid-range suited connector play. You'll also be able to steal more often.

From a mathematical perspective, you should see fewer flops in a tight/aggressive game but your investment will probably be larger due to additional raising for those hands. In a loose/passive game, you'll pay less to play each hand, but you'll see more of them. Thus, short term variance will be high, but long term variance will probably not be all that different..... if you adjust your play correctly.

[CrackerZack]

Good point. You lose and it looks like variance because they shouldn't have been in the hand, but it has nothing about being raised on the flop, you 3-bet, then getting raised again on the turn and folding wondering, or calling down 2 more BBs.

[DaBartman]

Great thread! I have wondered about just this question for quite awhile. My normal game is usually quite loose/aggressive and my variance has been high. So has my frustration. Got sick of it the other day, went accross town and played a tight/aggressive 20/40. I had become so used to looking at strange hands on the end (8/16 game) that I was amazed by how often my hands stood up and was also pleased at the number of pots that didn't make it to the river. I know I have a tight/agressive image and it was nice to be able to take advantage of it for a change. Most of my nice win came from situations where I open raise, get two calls. Flop comes scary and completly misses me. Bet, muck, muck. Time and again. Oh well, back to the 8/16 as I don't have the bankroll yet to stay in the 20/40.

[fireman664]

I am very new to the game, but have done alot of playing (lately) and reading. My question is similar since I am playing strictly in the very low limit games. How do I improve not only my game, but my hourly take when in these games. I have seen players who in an hour have NEVER mucked a hand, and at the same time I have also limped in from the BB only to ride out till the end with no bets (and have K high) only too see the pot go to someone with trip A. (they never bet let alone raise on their aces in the hole, not even after the river). Its very frustrating when I dont kill at a table like that. Should I be frustrated?

[Al_Capone_Junior]

You should not feel frustrated when you don't destroy a real aggressive game, it's normal. What's even more normal is for you to have a wide range of results in those games. Once in a while, you'll catch cards and slay em. Once in a while, you'll get pummelled real bad. And often times, you'll mostly fold, either pre flop or on the flop, and perhaps win a pot or two, and not do anything at all noteworthy. just remember, it's going to be a lot more frustrating when you get killed than it is when you just can't beat a game full of complete morons.

al