Free Money: Denver/KC under 49

[natedogg]

Last week I didn't play any totals because I didn't see any that really stood out for me.

But I do not believe this total.

Denver has scored all of 23 offensive points. They have scored two TDs so far. Even their vaunted kicker has been struggling.

They are in the bottom 1/3 of rushing teams right now, with 84 yards per game. There is something seriously wrong with the Denver.

On top of that, the KC defense has actually played solidly for two consecutive games, and against very good running teams no less. What is even more surprising is that the offense has not dominated the way it used to, even against a
woeful defense like the Raiders.

This total should be 37. Getting the under 49 is as close to free money as you'll get betting NFL games.

natedogg

[FishNChips]

great analysis nate.

what are your thoughts on the line for this game? Pinny has chiefs +3 (-114). this seems like a pretty nice line, your thoughts?

FishNChips

[handsome]

Uhh, I think you're forgetting about the MNF factor.

Baboom (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?page=/MNFtelevision)

I don't handicap, I just follow football and simply don't agree that this is "free money"

[Homesig]

Been looking at that myself.. Didn't Priest get dinged a bit last week as well??? I think the under bet is easily +70% chance to win.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Last week I didn't play any totals because I didn't see any that really stood out for me.

But I do not believe this total.

Denver has scored all of 23 offensive points. They have scored two TDs so far. Even their vaunted kicker has been struggling.

They are in the bottom 1/3 of rushing teams right now, with 84 yards per game. There is something seriously wrong with the Denver.

On top of that, the KC defense has actually played solidly for two consecutive games, and against very good running teams no less. What is even more surprising is that the offense has not dominated the way it used to, even against a
woeful defense like the Raiders.

This total should be 37. Getting the under 49 is as close to free money as you'll get betting NFL games.

natedogg

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm riding the KC under until people figure out that they actually have a defense this year. Same w/ the colts.

[lorinda]

Last three seasons (I'm just posting these as a possible line explanation, I certainly don't want to comment on this game either way at the moment)

'04 Chiefs 24-34 Broncos
'03 Chiefs 27-45 Broncos
'02 Chiefs 24-31 Broncos

Lori

[Gambler]

The Chiefs D has been pretty stingy in points allowed per game so far (8th in NFL) Meanwhile Denver's O has been misfiring on all cylinders up to this point. The game is in Denver though where they are much better. Still, looks like Chiefs 28-17 to me.

[tshort]

[ QUOTE ]

'04 Chiefs 24-34 Broncos
'03 Chiefs 27-45 Broncos

Denver and the Chiefs both had high-powered offenses and Chiefs had terrible defenses

'02 Chiefs 24-31 Broncos


[/ QUOTE ]

Chiefs won 45-17 at home last year. I don't think you can really consider games from two or three years ago.

The important facts are Denver's put up 15 ppg against some mediocre defenses and the Chiefs have limited two decent offenses to 12 ppg. I think the key is the Chiefs improvement in the secondary is limiting big pass plays, so opponents have to run more. We know the Chiefs are going to pound the ball with Holmes and Johnson. I think the clock is going to keep moving. These are some good reasons to pick under.

It is a litte scary that the total scores for MNF last year averaged 54 ppg. We know when the Chiefs and Broncos play they play to win -- by a lot.

I think under is a good pick, but not free money.

[West]

[ QUOTE ]
'04 Chiefs 24-34 Broncos

This was a preseason game.

Last year, the Chiefs lost 11-17 at Denver. Chiefs won 45-17 at home.

[/ QUOTE ]

The 45-17 is right, but I don't know where you're getting that 17-11. link (http://www.nfl.com/teams/schedule/DEN/2004) link (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/schedule?year=2004)

[tshort]

You are correct. ESPN.com was incorrect.

I edited post.

[jedinite]

[ QUOTE ]
Didn't Priest get dinged a bit last week as well??? I think the under bet is easily +70% chance to win.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYI Priest is fine. Shoulder bruise / stinger, but nothing serious at all. He came back and played the rest of the game and had several big carries including several big hits.

Not weighing in on either side, but Priest is healthy, it is a non-factor.

[Lurkmaster Flex]

Denver gave up 34 points to the *Dolphins* 2 weeks ago. KC putting up 49 themselves I would put at about 8-1.

[TheRonin]

(bumping this back up for tonight)
figured some it could be helpful to some peps around here. It was posted ealier on during the week

[duma]

there is no such thing as free money in sports, especially the NFL.

[deadm0ney]

not free money, but a good bet..

if it were free i'd bet my br

[ThaHero]

This O/U frightens me...ok maybe I'm being melodramatic. But I wouldn't bet it.

Sure, KC has improved their D. And yes, Denver's D is pretty good. Both teams are running teams. But if things continue like they have been, this will be way over. I just don't know.

[sublime]

good call. WA line appears to be 47.5 and dropping.

[miami32]

Natedogs word is as good as Jesus's if you ask me. Take the under.

[YoureToast]

where are you getting 49?

[CCx]

it opened at 49, and could be had at 49 at the time of this post 6 days ago... now it's 48 everywhere, on the move as the under's hammered

[YoureToast]

I'm not smart...Should've checked the date of the post.

[natedogg]

[ QUOTE ]
there is no such thing as free money in sports, especially the NFL.

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously not. I was using hyberbole in my post. I still put this under at about 60-70% which is as close as you'll get to free money betting NFL.

Good luck to all those on the under.

natedogg

[natedogg]

Well this is too close to the wire for my blood. I'm scared about this one. Let's hope the Denver D can keep it up.

natedogg

You will prob be right natedogg but for all the wrong reasons. lol Denver's O really did dominate SD last week, should've had 34 (ed: 27 for the O alone) if it weren't for Anderson fumbling on the SD 1 and Putzier having a TD called back on an unrelated penalty.

[JTrout]

I got under 46.5 (+115). /images/graemlins/tongue.gif
I'm wishing right now I hadn't sold that extra point! /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[TheRonin]

I'll take it anyway I can get it. 48.5 was never sweating. Thanks Nate

[MyTurn2Raise]

you're my hero natedogg. This and the bar stool pundits were the icing to my college football cake. Looks like I'm drinking micro-brews tonight. Thanks for the tips.

[JTrout]

indeed! Thanks, Nate /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[Jibbs]

Nice call. Even my bet on this game couldn't hex you, although I was worried after the quick 17 points early.