TD 2-7: breaking the 8 one draw too late?

[MarkGritter]

I feel like I misplayed this hand--- by breaking the 8 on the second draw when it should have been ditched on the first, after the pot became 5-handed. Or, does my paired 4s give me enough extra equity to stick with the 8? What are your thoughts?

I felt that the odds of anybody quitting the hand on the 2nd round were low, and that my 8 was unlikely to hold up. But I don't have a good feel for strength of hand necessary vs. decreased number of outs available in these multiway pots.

----------------------------------------------------------------

Hand #8371356-1620 at Moncton ($1/$2 Triple Draw 2-7)
Powered by UltimateBet
Started at 20/Sep/05 00:46:34

quickspark is at seat 0 with $130.50.
Chicken Lips is at seat 1 with $166.75.
mgritter is at seat 2 with $93.25.
tycoone is at seat 3 with $70.25.
bruce99 is at seat 4 with $78.
alpha dog 34 is at seat 5 with $36.25.
The button is at seat 5.

quickspark posts the small blind of $.50.
Chicken Lips posts the big blind of $1.

quickspark: -- -- -- -- --
Chicken Lips: -- -- -- -- --
mgritter: 2c 7h 4s 4d 8s
tycoone: -- -- -- -- --
bruce99: -- -- -- -- --
alpha dog 34: -- -- -- -- --

First Round:

mgritter raises to $2. tycoone folds. bruce99
calls. alpha dog 34 calls. quickspark calls.
Chicken Lips calls.

quickspark takes 2 cards. Chicken Lips takes 3 cards.
mgritter takes 1 card. bruce99 takes 2 cards.
alpha dog 34 takes 2 cards.

quickspark: -- -- -- -- --
Chicken Lips: -- -- -- -- --
mgritter: 2c 7h 4s 8s 5c
bruce99: -- -- -- -- --
alpha dog 34: -- -- -- -- --

Second Round:

quickspark checks. Chicken Lips checks. mgritter
bets $1. bruce99 calls. alpha dog 34 folds.
quickspark calls. Chicken Lips calls.

quickspark takes 2 cards. Chicken Lips takes 1 card.
mgritter takes 1 card. bruce99 takes 2 cards.

Third Round:

quickspark: -- -- -- -- --
Chicken Lips: -- -- -- -- --
mgritter: 2c 7h 4s 5c As
bruce99: -- -- -- -- --

quickspark checks. Chicken Lips checks. mgritter
bets $2. bruce99 calls. quickspark calls. Chicken
Lips calls.

quickspark takes 1 card. Chicken Lips takes 1 card.
mgritter takes 1 card. bruce99 takes 1 card.

quickspark: -- -- -- -- --
Chicken Lips: -- -- -- -- --
mgritter: 2c 7h 4s 5c Tc
bruce99: -- -- -- -- --

Final Round:

quickspark checks. Chicken Lips checks. mgritter
checks. bruce99 checks.



Showdown:

quickspark shows 9c 6d 4h 3d 2s.
quickspark has 9 6 4 3 2.
Chicken Lips mucks cards.
(Chicken Lips has 9s 7c 6h 5s 3h.)
mgritter mucks cards.
(mgritter has Tc 7h 5c 4s 2c.)
bruce99 mucks cards.
(bruce99 has 8d 7s 6s 6c 2d.)


Hand #8371356-1620 Summary:

$1 is raked from a pot of $22.
quickspark wins $21 with 9 6 4 3 2.
----------------------------------------------------------------

[dibbs]

Ick.

In this game, in this pot, I draw 2.

On the first draw, I like seeing CL at 3, bruce is probably at 2 (in my experience), alpha is probably at 2 as well although 3 is far from impossible. I think sometimes when I see CL at 3 here I'll start liking my hand more which is foolish, theres those guys behind you.

That being said, the stock is relatively thin, and I often feel like an idiot on the end with my busted two card draw and a rough T takes down a swelled up pot. With this many in though I feel pretty comfortable with a good two card draw, and assume my advantage comes from rough drawing opps.

JMO, interested to see what others have to say.

[timprov]

With twelve good cards in people's hands (and one dead) an 87 -- any pat hand -- has to be a huge favorite. Discarding it on the first round might be better (we really need a good sim to figure these sorts of questions out), but once you've made the 8, keep it.

[fnord_too]

I think you underestimate the value of your 8 after the first draw. It is 875, which is about where I would draw the line for keeping it/ditching it (875 is on the keeping it side of the line). You have three opponents who are all drew multiple cards. Absolute worst case is 16 of the 28 cards that are 8 or less are gone when you make your decision to ditch the 8. At least one of your opponents is still drawing two. I think the stub being light makes it a mistake for you to draw and costly for your opponents to chase. I would jam until I met resistance here, I'm sure you have >25% equity, and no one is going anywhere until the river.

Tossing the 8 on the first draw may or may not be better.