PLO8, facing a big raise from LAG

[emptyshell]

SB is LAG: VPIP 49, PFR 19, Postflop Aggr: 3.7, Cold-call PF %: 3.6, Check/Raise %: 0.62. What do you do here?

$400 PL Omaha Hi/Lo
Hero ( $388 ), CO ( $175.97 ), BB ( $635.15 ),
UTG+2 ( $774.82 ), MP1 ( $400 ), SB ( $410.20 ),
BUT ( $106.15 ), UTG ( $400 ), OUT ( $248.32 ),
UTG+1 ( $400 )
OUT is sitting out.

Hero is MP2 with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
++--++

SB posts $2.
BB posts $4.
UTG posts $4.
UTG+1 posts $4.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero raises $22, CO calls $22, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>,
SB calls $20, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>

<font color="blue">Flop</font>: (75.00) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif
SB checks.
Hero bets $75.
CO folds.
SB raises $300.
Hero ???

[Wintermute]

Great post--very interesting hand, although it looked routine initially. My first impulse was that this was an obvious fold but I monkeyed around in 2dimes and found that against most top two, you easily have correct odds to call. Even against a pretty bad QT, you are on the edge of having a call here:

Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 820 enumerated boards containing Qs Td 3h
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Ad 3d Qh Jh 145 145 435 240 0 0 0 0.323
Ac Jc Qd Th 435 435 145 240 0 0 0 0.677

Against a wrap, you are often ahead since you have the AJ to kill the K outs. The only hand that has you in bad shape is a set, and even then only top set has you totally screwed.

Hell, I'm actually thinking you might call here given the 2:1 odds and the fact that he's a LAG. Has he been playing real stupid/LAGgy in this session? Also, what's his winrate &amp; # of hands that you've seen him in? That would probably be the deciding factor if I had long enough to think all this over before I acted.

[emptyshell]

Yeah, I think the two backdoor flush draws and gutshot make it more interesting than it might first seem. I only had 400 hands of stats on him during which time he lost $1.5k. There weren't any hands that I remembered at the time I needed to make the decision (I was playing four tables and dealing with a Swedish girl that is trying to make plans for us to spend the rest of our lives together.)

[gergery]

that type of player is raising the board, not his hand.

Most preflop raisers have AA,A2/A3 and can't call a big raise. Given his range there and HeWhoCannotFold's post, i call very often.

-g

[AnyAce]

I agree with the other posters. Maybe he has AA, but I suspect with the kind of stats you describe he puts you on A2xx and he figures to pot the flop unless two or more low cards come. I would call.

[Cooker]

I agree somewhat with you gergery, although I think you can get into trouble never giving your opponent credit. If I have seen this guy do this before (check raise a preflop raiser when no low draw flopped), then I flat call here, but I might reraise out of position. Since you describe your opponent as laggy, I would probably call and see what happens on the turn.

[gergery]

If you call the turn, you will have $66 left and the pot will be $645. There is no turn card that could make me fold getting better than 10:1. If you like calling this turn, then potting the flop was a clear error – there is no possible hand you can hold where pot-call is a good line to take.

I agree it is a high variance play, and I would not always recommend jamming there, but as AirHumpy showed, your opponent only needs to be betting a wrap or bluffing a relatively small % of the time for this to be a profitable play. And this opponent as described could easily be doing that.

It’s not about whether you give him credit – its about whether his weighted range of hands and the pot odds make your push EV+ or not.

Welcome to the o8 forum btw, I liked your post in the beginners forum the other day.

--greg

[Cooker]

My fault, I didn't pay enough attention fo stack size. I agree, if you play on you should go ahead and move in. If you call you are totally pot committed and will have to call any later bet for $66 more.

[dcasper70]

[ QUOTE ]
AirHumpy

[/ QUOTE ]

this forum's getting punchy /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[emptyshell]

This was a really close one for me, and I felt like I might be tilting when I called.

...
UTG: aces smases
Hero is all-In $291
SB calls $66.

<font color="blue">Turn</font>: (807.00) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif

<font color="blue">River</font>: (807.00) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif


SB shows 2d, Ks, Qd, 3c two pairs, queens and threes.
Hero shows Ad, Jh, Qh, 3d two pairs, aces and queens.

Hero wins $807 from the main pot with two pairs, aces and queens.
There was no qualifying low hand.

My pot equity:

Flop: 3h, Td, Qs , Turn: Ah , River: 9c
------------------------------------- PF ---- Flop --- Turn
SB -------------- 2d, Ks, Qd, 3c --- 0.301 -- 0.238 -- 0.075
Hero ------------ Ad, Jh, Qh, 3d --- 0.699 -- 0.762 -- 0.925