PDA

View Full Version : Going Pro...Well Kinda


xGoreDudex
09-19-2005, 08:25 PM
Going "Pro" is definatley appealing to anybody that hears that there are people outwhose sole vocation is playing poker.

In the 2+2 Magazine, Ed Miller and others have contriubted on a "know what your getting yourself" into mantality and gets people wised up as to what the negative side of going Pro is. I think anybody who has any common sense would agree with Miller & Co.

However, these writings seemed to be focused on mid-high limit players who "grind" bets for hours upon hours and make their wage. I've done some studying/interviews and research and came up with a pretty neat conclusion, nothing new, but something I feel should be talked about with cool heads.

I have a friend who has played roughly 250,000 hands according to his PT database. He's currently playing $10/20 six max and MT's it with a winrate of 1.6, not enough hands yet for his sample but he's working on it. However, through 70,000 hands respectivly at both $2/4 and $3/6 full ring games he is a 2.52(2/4) and 2.01(3/6) winner. Now, 70k isn't the largest sample in the world either, but I believe is signifigant enough for my example.

He also is a 2.3bb/100 winner in the $5/10 (6 max) over 50k as well, so I believe he's a winning player. I was picking his brain, he also plays 6-8 tables and finds he rarely tilts due to the sheer number of hands he plays daily.

So, take a person (which I'm sure many of you have similiar) numbers at these small stakes levels). Play your 8 table game and you'll see roughly 3,500 hands (assuming 55 hands per hour x 8)

I have this person waking up sometime between 8-9am, playing 4 hours with 2 hours to themselves. Then contiuning for another 4 hours, and enjoying the rest of their evening/night.

I also have 25% rakeback set up for this person in this example.

$2/4
3,500 hands x 2.00bb/100 (rounding it down from the 2.52 my friend acheived to present a more common scenario)
I'm also giving this person 1 full day each week of poker free living. So he will play 27 days (assuming 31 day month)


On a typical day this person will net $280 in poker winnings (now you know how varience works by now I assume).
Rakeback will net them according to statistics from various RB sites at the 25% will make around $1,000 in RB possibly more.

So, total from poker
280 x 27 days = $7,500
Rakeback = $1,000
total= $8,500

Now I realize a lot of you don't 8 table, but I believe with your own PT evidence, you can't tell me that if you did not have the time which I've alotted for this person in my example, and upped your desire, you could manage this schedual.

I'm not saying were all millionaires and should go wild, I'm saying that there is a lot of money in small stakes games on the internet right now, despite what people say. I can't speak for 10 years from now, but as of right now, there is good money to be made.

When Sklansky wrote "...It's now no big deal to be making $50,000 playing $3/6..." he wasn't saying it to make poker sound simple, he was saying it because this is the current reality of the poker community, that winning SS players can currently make a very good wage.

I know I will recieve the occasional (yeah man start 120 tabling..and the like). Thats not why I made my example. There are many 2+2'ers that play 6-8 tables, and many more that could adapt to it. If $ is your bottom-line, there is money in small stakes, based on your own numbers.
Find the time!...Go Pro? the jury is still out...make tons of money?...our evidence shows us its obtainable.



G.

JonPKibble
09-19-2005, 08:47 PM
As long as it remains profitable, people will continue to choose small stakes hold'em as a way to earn a living. That is the bottom line. Personally I enjoy it more knowing I don't have to depend on the income, but that is just me.

crunchy1
09-19-2005, 09:21 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I have this person waking up sometime between 8-9am, playing 4 hours with 2 hours to themselves. Then contiuning for another 4 hours, and enjoying the rest of their evening/night... I'm also giving this person 1 full day each week of poker free living. So he will play 27 days (assuming 31 day month)

[/ QUOTE ]
This is obnoxiously unreasonable. The average player will struggle to play 8 full hrs per day, much less 5 days per week, much less each week of the month. Certainly there are some players who can do this - but, clearly, they are few and far between.

SeaEagle
09-19-2005, 09:23 PM
Just remember that 8-tabling for 8 hours a day turns into a monotonous job just like many others.

And does your friend make his money during the day. The competition is quite a bit easier at night.

TheHip41
09-19-2005, 10:56 PM
[ QUOTE ]
3,500 hands x 2.00bb/100 (rounding it down from the 2.52 my friend acheived to present a more common scenario)
I'm also giving this person 1 full day each week of poker free living. So he will play 27 days (assuming 31 day month)


[/ QUOTE ]


You will hate yourself if you play 27 out of 31 days , 3500 hands a day. This pace is not sustainable.

I think the max amount of hands per month being played at 2=4 is by QTip. 4000 a day 5 days a week.

I am currently playing 10000 hands a week. I did the same calcuations as you.


10000 per week, for 48 weeks. at 2bb/100, that is $8/100 hands. that's $800/10,000 hands.

48 X $800 plus bonuses and rakeback. Make a decent living for the time being.

Harv72b
09-20-2005, 12:02 AM
I think that most pros will tell you that 30 hours/week is a much more realistic number to shoot for than 48 hours/week. And you also have to subtract for vacation time, because nobody wants to "work" for 52 weeks/year, every year. Then of course there's sick time, emergencies that require you to miss your hours, etc.

What I'm saying is, the numbers you're giving are very unrealistic. Maybe you can do it--I know that I couldn't.

Before I ever considered going pro, I would want to be playing (and, of course, beating) at least the 15/30 game. Putting in a relatively modest 30 hours/week over 48 weeks/year, this would result in about $100k/year (before taxes) with a very modest win rate of 2 BB/hr (real hour, not table hour) and a decent rakeback deal. I assume 4-tabling, because I really don't have any interest in playing more tables than that.

hellite
09-20-2005, 12:16 AM
i certainly agree. If you look in the newspaper, you can see that if you spend your whole day stuffing envelopes you can make up to $5000 A week. No swings too. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

TheHip41
09-20-2005, 02:09 AM
[ QUOTE ]
i certainly agree. If you look in the newspaper, you can see that if you spend your whole day stuffing envelopes you can make up to $5000 A week. No swings too. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

After a few months, this might be more exciting.