Overpair vs. huge overbet

[Rooger]

Have seen Villain make this move once before - he took down the pot, so I'm really wondering what he has.
Do you call this? If I'm behind, I probably have 10, perhaps 8 outs to improve.
What is Villain holding?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (6 max, 5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero ($143)
UTG ($52.50)
MP ($60.25)
Button ($88.45)
SB ($159.55)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls $1, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $5</font>, Button calls $4.

Flop: ($10.50) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $8</font>, Button calls $83.45 (All-In), Hero?

[trevor]

INSTA-fold

Ok, Ok. I'll add something. Basically I wait for a better spot. You've seen him do this twice now. Hopefully sooner (than later) you'll flop the nuts and he'll pull one of these cute moves again. If he outplayed you, so what? It's one pot. How often do you really think you are ahead here? Use this information in further decision-making and hope he attempts to keep leaning on you.

[Rooger]

[ QUOTE ]
INSTA-fold

Ok, Ok. I'll add something. Basically I wait for a better spot. You've seen him do this twice now. Hopefully sooner (than later) you'll flop the nuts and he'll pull one of these cute moves again. If he outplayed you, so what? It's one pot. How often do you really think you are ahead here? Use this information in further decision-making and hope he attempts to keep leaning on you.

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I definately see your point, but I don't think it's an instafold - what would you expect villain to hold?

[elus2]

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Have seen Villain make this move once before

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over how many hands? i'd just give him credit for a straight or a set.

[Rooger]

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Have seen Villain make this move once before

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over how many hands? i'd just give him credit for a straight or a set.

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Important note - less than 30 hands.

[Andrew Fletcher]

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I don't think it's an instafold - what would you expect villain to hold?

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I expect two pair or maybe a set. J9 or JT seems pretty likely here.

It's a tough fold, but I think it's correct.

[BBD]

I call. Seems unlikely villian is holding a Q here, as you have 2 of them. If he is holding J-J/10-10/9-9, so be it, you do have quite a few outs here.

[jcmack13]

I instacall and am usually right. This is a "please don't call" bet. QJ possible. Q3 possible. AJ/KJ possible. Air possible.

If he had a serious hand, he would want to extract more value.

This is almost NEVER a set or a straight in my experience.

[umdpoker]

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This is almost NEVER a set or a straight in my experience.

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i agree that it doesn't seem like a str8. i have, however seen a lot of hands where people play 2 pr/ set like this. they just don't want to see another str8 card come out, putting them in a tough situation. also, a set has so many outs against a str8, that it isn't a horrible play once the pot gets semi-big. could also be pr+ str8 draw.

[Rooger]

Interesting that some say insta-fold, and some say insta-call.
They way I see it, it's unlikely that he has a set, given his limp on the button - most people would raise 99, TT &amp; JJ.
KQ seems unlikely - I give him good action, he would want to extract more from it.

My guess would be I'm up against a staight draw - which I'm very good against, TPTK, TPGK, two pair or a pure bluff, far more often than a straight or a set.

[fuzzbox]

You might only have 3 remaining Ks.

You cant call this - he could easily have JJ/TT/99/KQ/JT/9T/J9 here.
Of course he could also have AQ which would suck, but I have to grumble and fold.

"so be it" isn't the way to win money. like pointed out, if he isn't beat in this hand, he'll soon find a much better spot to stack villain.

[Rooger]

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You cant call this - he could easily have JJ/TT/99/KQ/JT/9T/J9 here.

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He easily could - but which ones would he limp on the button when folded to, and then make this move?

[Rooger]

I was very much in doubt about this hand, but finally called it.

I thought it was unlikely for Villain to limp JJ/TT/99 on the button, and it wouldn't make sense for him to push a made straight.

Therefore I was pretty sure I was up against 2 pairs, TPTK or a straight draw.
Even against 2 pairs I'm only a 49% to 51% underdog, so I figured I had the odds to call - villain showed T9, but I hit an 8.

I was really in doubt afterwards, but it seems most people lean towards a fold.