Value betting on the river

[ubercuber]

This post may have more value with specific hands to consider, but I am thinking generally and would like to hear others thoughts on this:

I often read "What would villian call with here that wouldn't have Hero beaten?" And the point is not betting on the River, or checking behind on the River.

What I am thinking is that this is an easy concept to take too far, and the answer to what will they call with is frequently A high, bottom pair, K high, missed draws just to see your hand etc...

Obviously reads are huge here...if villian is a calling station it is not a tough choice, but I not talking about those situations.

I think what I am getting at here is that some results of not value betting are on the verge of changing my game, as results tend to do, and I would like to get into the habit of generating discussion about those results before my feeble mind starts making long term losing decisions!

[GTSamIAm]

Post some hands. If you're first to act and would lean towards calling if villain bets, go ahead and bet for value yourself. This is assuming that villain doesn't fold many hands he would bet with, and that villain is very often going to check behind.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
I think what I am getting at here is that some results of not value betting are on the verge of changing my game, as results tend to do, and I would like to get into the habit of generating discussion about those results before my feeble mind starts making long term losing decisions!

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what's known around here as results-oriented thinking, and you shouldn't do it. There are both theoretical and practical reasons for this:

Theoretically, a +EV play is a +EV play, and that's what you should be striving to make. Sklansky bucks and all that.

Practically speaking, if you start changing your game because of the way players play at, say, .25/.50 or .5/1, then, although you're winning more from these uber-bad players now, you're going to be in trouble when you move up to 1/2 and 2/4 and the players are better. You'll actually wind up losing more $$ changing your game BACK than you won changing your game to take advantage of the fish.

That's not to say that you can't change the way you might play a HAND, based on a read against an individual player. Just don't change your GAME.

[ubercuber]

Well I havn't been doing so hot lately, and I have found a couple of leaks: Playing too many hands out of the small blind, and betting out with missed overcards into too many opponents when I have raised preflop, to be specific.

I realized as I was typing my post that I was doing results oriented thinking, in fact I have been in game fix mode for about a week and have suffered for it!

I think it is awesome that this forum exists to clarify ill advised thought processes before they take root! Or confirm the good ones!

Here is a hand to consider. I stated that I am thinking generally about taking a concept too far, but it occurs to me that a few hands should outline a decent mental approach to many situations. That said hopefully posters will be more expansive than just saying "bet", as that doesn't really help with the why.

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO caps</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (9 SB) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls.

River: (8.50 BB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, CO:___

Final Pot: 8.50 BB

[Fantam]

Hmm your converter didnt work very well.

I think that you have a point, that sometimes there can be a fine line between when there is value in betting on the river, or whether it is more prudent to check and call.

Very generally speaking when you have something like a good top pair, there are usually smaller pairs that might call. However if you only have something like Ace high, then betting on the river will likely only end up value betting your opponents small pair for them. IMHO.

I dont know how the betting went in the hand that you have shown. But even with a possible straight on the board, I would have felt inclined to value bet that river, because there were plenty of smaller pair hands that could have called.

[Marquis]

Somebody posted a hand once with the subject "Should I value bet the river?" and a very good player responded "Yes. (Didn't look at hand)." Sorry, I forget who it was.

The point is, at least at these limits, if you're not sure, you should bet.

[bozlax]

Take the word "Texas" out of the raw HH before putting it through bisonbison's converter. Look at the post preview before submitting to make sure it doesn't look like, uh, this.

There's no way for us to tell what happened, here, so I don't know if CO might have had AJ/J9 for the straight or not, but assuming that you raised or 3-bet preflop (both of which you should have done), I'd be surprised.

So, you've got TPTK on the river...bet/call. CO is going to call with a worse pair, and might even raise with Kx, and, depending on the action on earlier streets, if he's got KQ then that's poker.

[ubercuber]

Sorry...I fixed the hand. CO is Tight aggressive for 75 hands.