Arizona St -4 1/2 @ Oregon St

[MyTurn2Raise]

I'm looking at the early lines for this weekend and Arizona State looks like the best pick for a second consecutive weekend. I'm thinking the rest of the country discounts the close loss to LSU and does not realize this team is top 15/ marginal top 10. Here's a more in-depth look at why they will cover -4 1/2 at Oregon State. (Last year, Arizona State beat Oregon State 27-14 in Tempe.)

1) The ASU offense will light it up again in its matchup verse the Oregon State D.

After 500+ yards against LSU and over 720 verse the Northwestern Wildcats, this offense is still impressing me. Last week, ASU added a rush attack of 200+yards to Keller's passing attack. Oregon State's defense was exposed big time by Louisville, who hung 63 on the Beavers. The loss of their best defensive linemen, Swancutt, and 3/4 of their secondary really showed for Oregon State. Last year, ASU only had 125 yards rushing and 124 passing. But, this is clearly a matured ASU offensive scheme and a much weaker Beaver defense. While, I don't see ASU putting up 700+ yards again, I think an eigth straight game of over 500 is likely and a score somewhere in the mid-30s.

2) Arizona State's defense will hold Oregon State's offense in check.

Last year, the beavers had -19 yards rushing verse ASU! That was due to 8 sacks and Oregon State looks to have improved the run game, but not drastically. It will be an uphill battle for ORegon State to reach 150 on the ground. The Beavers passed for 384 yards against ASU last year. While WR MIke Haas returns, QB Derek Anderson is long gone. The Beavers return an adequete offense, capable of putting up decent points, but they are not a big time offense. The Arizona State defense continues to look above average. After holding the LSU offense to 17 (LSU had 2 special team scores), the Sun Devils held Northwestern to 21. Northwestern is a very good offensive team, they're better this year than the 24.6 ppg they averaged last year. While I expect Haas and the Beavers to get a few good shots in, I'm expecting somewhere around 300-350 yards and 17 points total output for the beavers.

3.)Oregon State's edge on special teams is minimal. The Beavers win in the punter and field goal kicker department. ASU showed crappy coverage against LSU and its speed a few weeks ago, but recovered nicely last week. I see a 3 point edge for the Beavers here.

Concerns) This is ASU's first road game and Reser Stadium can be hectic at night. In addition, ASU might be looking forward to home battles with USC and Oregon that follow.

Conclusion_I see ASU covering. They are competing for the 2nd best team in a very tough conference and want to come up big in the beginning of conference games.
Projected Final Score: Arizona State 34, Oregon State 20.

BTW--I hate taking the same team back-to-back weeks as my pick of the week, but the lines dictate the value and I must follow.

FYI--I'm 2-1 on my pick of the weeks
week 3-Arizona St -15 v Northwestern (WIN Arizona State 52 Northewestern 21)
week 2-V Tech -20 @ Duke (WIN V Tech 45, Duke 0)
week 1-Rutgers +2 @ Illini (LOSS Illinois 33, Rutgers 30 OT)

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=Sports&Number=3424868&Foru m=f26&Words=&Searchpage=0&Limit=25&Main=3424868&Se arch=true&where=bodysub&Name=39189&daterange=1&new erval=&newertype=w&olderval=1&oldertype=d&bodyprev =#Post3424868

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=Sports&Number=3338584&Foru m=f26&Words=&Searchpage=0&Limit=25&Main=3338584&Se arch=true&where=bodysub&Name=39189&daterange=1&new erval=&newertype=w&olderval=1&oldertype=d&bodyprev =#Post3338584

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=Sports&Number=3299140&Foru m=f26&Words=&Searchpage=0&Limit=25&Main=3299140&Se arch=true&where=bodysub&Name=39189&daterange=1&new erval=&newertype=w&olderval=1&oldertype=d&bodyprev =#Post3299140

[whipsaw]

I'm looking at the early lines for this weekend and Arizona State looks like the best pick for a second consecutive weekend. I'm thinking the rest of the country discounts the close loss to LSU and does not realize this team is top 15/ marginal top 10. Here's a more in-depth look at why they will cover -4 1/2 at Oregon State. (Last year, Arizona State beat Oregon State 27-14 in Tempe.)

1) The ASU offense will light it up again in its matchup verse the Oregon State D.

After 500+ yards against LSU and over 720 verse the Northwestern Wildcats, this offense is still impressing me. Last week, ASU added a rush attack of 200+yards to Keller's passing attack. Oregon State's defense was exposed big time by Louisville, who hung 63 on the Beavers. The loss of their best defensive linemen, Swancutt, and 3/4 of their secondary really showed for Oregon State. Last year, ASU only had 125 yards rushing and 124 passing. But, this is clearly a matured ASU offensive scheme and a much weaker Beaver defense. While, I don't see ASU putting up 700+ yards again, I think an eigth straight game of over 500 is likely and a score somewhere in the mid-30s.

2) Arizona State's defense will hold Oregon State's offense in check.

Last year, the beavers had -19 yards rushing verse ASU! That was due to 8 sacks and Oregon State looks to have improved the run game, but not drastically. It will be an uphill battle for ORegon State to reach 150 on the ground. The Beavers passed for 384 yards against ASU last year. While WR MIke Haas returns, QB Derek Anderson is long gone. The Beavers return an adequete offense, capable of putting up decent points, but they are not a big time offense. The Arizona State defense continues to look above average. After holding the LSU offense to 17 (LSU had 2 special team scores), the Sun Devils held Northwestern to 21. Northwestern is a very good offensive team, they're better this year than the 24.6 ppg they averaged last year. While I expect Haas and the Beavers to get a few good shots in, I'm expecting somewhere around 300-350 yards and 17 points total output for the beavers.

3.)Oregon State's edge on special teams is minimal. The Beavers win in the punter and field goal kicker department. ASU showed crappy coverage against LSU and its speed a few weeks ago, but recovered nicely last week. I see a 3 point edge for the Beavers here.

Concerns) This is ASU's first road game and Reser Stadium can be hectic at night. In addition, ASU might be looking forward to home battles with USC and Oregon that follow.

Conclusion_I see ASU covering. They are competing for the 2nd best team in a very tough conference and want to come up big in the beginning of conference games.
Projected Final Score: Arizona State 34, Oregon State 20.

BTW--I hate taking the same team back-to-back weeks as my pick of the week, but the lines dictate the value and I must follow.

FYI--I'm 2-1 on my pick of the weeks
week 3-Arizona St -15 v Northwestern (WIN Arizona State 52 Northewestern 21)
week 2-V Tech -20 @ Duke (WIN V Tech 45, Duke 0)
week 1-Rutgers +2 @ Illini (LOSS Illinois 33, Rutgers 30 OT)

[primetimenole]

I really like this pick also. I put 2 units on it earlier today even though the line has gone up to 5.5 at Pinny. I watcher Keller and Co. shred the LSU D earlier this year and although I'm no fan of the Pac 10 I know that they are for real. The only negative I see here other than the obvious negative of ASU being on the road is the fact that they play USC the week after this game and may look ahead. I am hoping that ASU already having one loss on the season makes them focus on each game. All in all, however, I'm right there with you and think that this is a strong play.

[scalf]

/images/graemlins/grin.gif..i think this az st g here is as close to a l*ck as can be...weather might be a factor; home team always a factor; let down a factor; turnovers a factor;

but as scalf sees it

az st up to -6 bet your max

jmho

p.s.

sorry for the jynx

lol

gl

/images/graemlins/tongue.gif /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[MyTurn2Raise]

I like 2 other games this week enough that I'm putting 2 units on them.

USC -21.5 @ Oregon

Unfortunately, my hesitation cost me 1.5 points here. I'm not sure Texas could come within 20 points of SC right now. This is a team on a mission to be the greatest of all-time. SC has interpreted this quest as a reason to run=up the score as much as possible. They went for it on 4th down four times last week, converting 3. There offense is just sick. This is the best college team I've seen in my life. (I've been old enough to follow since 87 or so.) SC and Oregon have not squared off in a couple years, so not much past to go on. Outzen stadium is a very tough place for road teams, but this SC looks like it cannot wait for its first 'test.' I'm on the band wagon. SC 59...Oregon 14.

The other game I like is Michigan State -11 @ Illinois. Even after a post-ND let down, the Spartans are too much for the Illini. The last 2 years, they've beat Illinois by 35 and 13. Both of these teams are different, but some things remain the same. The Illini defense is swiss cheese. Rutgers had 30 points and plus 500 yards. California had 35 points after 7 in the first half and without being able to pass the ball effectively. Michigan State had 253 yards rushing and 234 through the air verse the Illini last year. I do not expect that to change much. The Illini offense showed some very positive signs last week in the first half. Cal made some adjustments, though, and their talent won out. While Illinois can put up a few points, the talent isn't there to expect over 24 against the Spartans. Final Score...Michigan State 45...Illinois 23.

FYI...I'm 1-2 ATS on the Illini this year. Usually, I'm pretty good on the Illini, but they've surprised me by beating Rutgers and putting up a good first half verse Cal. The Illini are 3-0 ATS this year. At least I did pick them against San Jose St.

[kdog]

Hmmm, three road favorites. Az St. I like but I can't imagine Beavers defense being as bad as they were against Louisville last week. Your 34-20 prediction sounds about right.

USC I'm certainly not betting against. Don't know enough about the Ducks to really have an opinion here though.

Mich St -11 I don't like. They are coming off an emotional OT win against one of their biggest rivals and now go on the road laying double digits for a conference game against a team that has covered three straight. I'll pass on this one.

[fnurt]

It's hard to go wrong betting on Michigan State early in the season, and against them late in the season. They are the Dolphins of college football.

[MyTurn2Raise]

Looks like I'm going to sweat ASU more than thought...Hopefully, the trend of high-scoring 2nd halves will continue

[null]

[ QUOTE ]
Looks like I'm going to sweat ASU more than thought...Hopefully, the trend of high-scoring 2nd halves will continue

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the pick, good writeup. One of the few (2) games I won today...got slaughtered with the rest.

[CCx]

nice post, i missed this one on the card for some reason, but used your analysis and a piss-poor first half from both teams to load up on ASU -2.5 in the 2nd half

had to sweat a bit in the 4th quarter but overall it went well, good stuff.