Just Another $22 Bubble Dilemma

[kevstreet]

I tried to clean this up, the hand converter isn't working for me.

NL Texas Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee
Level:6 Blinds(100/200)

Seat 7 is the button

Total number of players : 4

Seat 5: BB ( $205 )

Seat 6: HERO UTG ( $1465 )

Seat 7: CO ( $1430 )

Seat 1: SB ( $4900 )


Level:6

Blinds(100/200)

** Dealing down cards **

Dealt to HERO [ 8h Ac ]

The chip leader has been pretty sharp and astute w/ bubble play. Any limping or min-raises he's come over the top and hasn't had to show down for a little while. That said, I wouldn't put it past him to fold to the BB to leave him in the game (I'm pretty sure I would)

What's your line?

[45suited]

Fold.

If you raise, there's too great a chance you'll get pushed off your hand by chipleader. Then, if shorty wins, the gap between you is much smaller.

If you call, you still will likely get pushed off your hand as well.

Pushing would be absolutely suicidal, chipleader can bust you and shorty can fold in the BB and have 5 chips remaining. (Even if he had under 200, I'm folding here as well.) A8 is just not strong enough to get involved with here. Just fold.

[unreal_nh]

pushhhh

[ilya]

I think you have to minraise or limp planning to fold to a big-stack all-in if BB folds; your hand is just too good to let shorty get a walk from big stack.

Hmmm I wonder. If big stack always pushes over the top, and shorty always folds, should you minraise here with A2C?

This situation has been discussed before...anyone remember the link?

[diebitter]

If the SB is playing the fact you're on the bubble, you need to get rid of the little stack - so you need to get heads up.

It's fold or all-in to stop the big stack pushing you off: I'd all-in, but either is fine.

If you've been folding to a lot of bullying, then your all-in improves as an option, BTW.

[kevstreet]

Well, after 3 responses, I've received 3 completely different answers: 1 push; 1 fold; 1 limp/min-raise.
I take solace in the fact that this isn't as clear
cut as I feared it would be.

[45suited]

Shorty getting a walk is not the end of the world. Here's some scenarios:

1) You fold, shorty gets a walk, now he has t305, you're still in fine shape to ITM.

2) You mini-raise, biggie comes over the top, shorty throws in his last 5 chips, you fold, shorty wins the hand.

Now you are down to 1065 (865 after posting), shorty has 615 (515 after posting). Now the first two guys fold again, and shorty pushes into you from the SB.

Hope your hand holds up, cuz if you lose, you're the shortstack. There is too great a chance for this scenario to occur here. A8 is not that great anyway. Shorty getting a walk and getting up to t305 is not the end of the world, but scenario #2 royally sucks. FOLD.

A8 UTG is not that great a hand in this situation, guys.

[ilya]

If shorty calls, I think you also call. You can't give him credit for a big hand cos he only has 5 left if he folds and he knows you'll probably fold to big stack's push.

[45suited]

Why is everyone so afraid of shorty getting a walk? It's not like it's the end of the world or anything and, more importantly, it's not like A8o UTG 4-handed is some kind of monster hand.

So... shorty gets a walk and is all the way up to t305. Our A8 is only ~60% vs his random hand anyway. Now you factor in the very good chance that any raise less than AI means that bigstack pushes... You are simultaneously giving away your cushion vs the shortstack and possibly tripling him up if he happens to win the hand.

Why? I mean, why are we, who are comfortable, the ones taking the chance of finishing OOTM here? Just be patient, let bigstack do his thing, if shorty gets a walk, we're still fine w/o having to walk any tightropes or anything.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
Why is everyone so afraid of shorty getting a walk? It's not like it's the end of the world or anything and, more importantly, it's not like A8o UTG 4-handed is some kind of monster hand.

So... shorty gets a walk and is all the way up to t305. Our A8 is only ~60% vs his random hand anyway. Now you factor in the very good chance that any raise less than AI means that bigstack pushes... You are simultaneously giving away your cushion vs the shortstack and possibly tripling him up if he happens to win the hand.

Why? I mean, why are we, who are comfortable, the ones taking the chance of finishing OOTM here? Just be patient, let bigstack do his thing, if shorty gets a walk, we're still fine w/o having to walk any tightropes or anything.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, cos next hand (after shorty gets a walk), UTG folds, big stack pushes on the button, shorty folds in the SB and we have to fold also...hand after that big stack raises and we fold our SB...hand after that we can't push on the button cos big stack is in the big blind...

[unreal_nh]

you all make such compelling arguments... very interesting. so what IS the right answer?

[pokerdirty]

i love your avatar. who is that?

[Freudian]

I like to limp here. Sometimes you get pushed off your hand but very often the SB just completes (and the hand gets checked to the river) looking to eliminate the shorty.

Of course if big stack has been busy throwing his weight around a fold is better, since there is no need to risk tripling up shorty without your A8 getting a chance to knock him out.

[45suited]

Freudian, this is from the OP:

[ QUOTE ]
The chip leader has been pretty sharp and astute w/ bubble play. Any limping or min-raises he's come over the top and hasn't had to show down for a little while.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now, what do you do if SB pushes?

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
Freudian, this is from the OP:

[ QUOTE ]
The chip leader has been pretty sharp and astute w/ bubble play. Any limping or min-raises he's come over the top and hasn't had to show down for a little while.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now, what do you do if SB pushes?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I saw that. But a big stack like that will surely let the BB live. And he will be able to do that for every orbit from now on.

By limping we make sure BB has to play a hand to showdown. Either against us or against SB. That might be the better option rather than waiting for a monster.

[45suited]

Fair enough. I hate raising here though, because against this guy, you'd be just guaranteeing that he pushes.

There is another option other than waiting for a monster. It is to be a little patient and allow either the shortstack or the other mid-stack to make a mistake first.

That's the line that I would take (fold here) but calling seems reasonable as well. Usually, calling is just going to mean giving away chips after SB pushes though, IMO.

[diebitter]

[ QUOTE ]
I like to limp here. Sometimes you get pushed off your hand but very often the SB just completes (and the hand gets checked to the river) looking to eliminate the shorty.

Of course if big stack has been busy throwing his weight around a fold is better, since there is no need to risk tripling up shorty without your A8 getting a chance to knock him out.

[/ QUOTE ]
If I were the big stack here, I'd keep the short stack in - I'd even donate money to him if I were behind him - just call the SB then fold at flop. Keeping the middle stacks scared is ++EV.

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
If I were the big stack here, I'd keep the short stack in - I'd even donate money to him if I were behind him - just call the SB then fold at flop

[/ QUOTE ]

The best way for SB to keep the shortstack in the game is to push PF, forcing you to fold and allowing the shortstack to play him heads-up. Now if shortstack wins the hand, he's tripled up.

Plus the OP said that he's been pushing limpers off their hands anyway. Limping = donating here, IMO.

BTW, what happened to your first recommendation of pushing PF? Did you run some numbers and decide against it?

[diebitter]

[ QUOTE ]
BTW, what happened to your first recommendation of pushing PF? Did you run some numbers and decide against it?

[/ QUOTE ]
No, I'd all-in here. And I don't see how commenting on how I'd play a big stack contradicts or in fact impacts in any way on my first post of playing this hand.

As I said, I'd all-in, but this thread seems weak-tight/timid to the core, and I didn't feel it was worth arguing the point.

[45suited]

My question came off wrong... it sounded like I was being a smart ass, but I really wasn't. I honestly wanted to know if you ran numbers on pushing and decided against it after seeing the results. No offense intended.

But anyway, just because it is correct for the bigstack to push the table around does not then make it correct for us to sacrifice ourselves up to the slaughter by pushing A8 UTG here with a shortstack waiting to bust.

I do enjoy it when the ole 'weak-tight' criticism is thrown my way though. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[diebitter]

[ QUOTE ]
My question came off wrong... it sounded like I was being a smart ass, but I really wasn't. I honestly wanted to know if you ran numbers on pushing and decided against it after seeing the results. No offense intended.

[/ QUOTE ]
I guess I came off wrong too, cos I wasn't offended in any way - just didn't understand how you thought I'd reconsidered by what I'd said about how I'd play a big stack.

Only ran the numbers to find out what sort of equity A8 has against 3 random hands - it's 35%. In addition, you can't worry too much about the small stack - even with him having AA, it's not that bad a setup. You got 2 other players to worry about, in reality (equity is 41% there).

So, no, my decision was a gut one. If you've been fold/fold/fold to the big stack, and all-in will pull him up smartish. The other middle stack is still probably cowed, so he'll only come in with a biggie. I reckon you'll be heads up with the small stack most of the time here. And as I said in previous threads, the small stack being present is doing a favour to the big stack, so losing him will be +EV for you.

Basically you need to take a stand at some point, and most prefer to do it once you're down to three, no matter how low their chips dip. I prefer to take a stand while my stack is scary. I get to 1st that way - the other usually only gets me to 3rd unless I'm really lucky at the right times.

The weak-tight thing wasn't aimed at you specifically.

[1C5]

minraise!

[kevstreet]

All of the responses are compelling, thank you. The chip leader had been playing solid otherwise I limp or minraise in hopes of checking it down. I'd also agree w/ Ilya that my hand is too strong to let shorty off the hook. If it was folded to the SB he would've folded and I'm 100% certain of it. Unfortunately my worst nightmare occurred, CO woke up to a hand and the short stack had the dream scenerio.

** Dealing down cards **

Dealt to kevstreet1 [ 8h Ac ]

kevstreet1 is all-In [1465]

CO is all-In [1430]

SB calls [1365]

BB folds.

** Dealing Flop ** [ Th, 4s, Kd ]

** Dealing Turn ** [ 7s ]

** Dealing River ** [ 5d ]

HERO shows [ 8h, Ac ] high card ace.

CO shows [ Tc, Td ] three of a kind, tens.

SB shows [ As, 5s ] a pair of fives.

BB wins 70 chips from side pot #1 with a pair of fives.

CO wins 4490 chips from the main pot with three of a kind, tens.

kevstreet1 finished in fourth place.

[kevstreet]

[ QUOTE ]
minraise!

[/ QUOTE ]

At the risk of being results oriented I think I like this line.

[45suited]

Not trying to be argumentative, but given your read, how could you possibly like mini-raising?

You mini-raise, SB pushes, BB either calls with any two or folds (hoping that you call and bust). You just gave away 400 chips. Lose the obsession with the shortstack already.

[kevstreet]

[ QUOTE ]
Not trying to be argumentative, but given your read, how could you possibly like mini-raising?


[/ QUOTE ]

FAIR ENOUGH and to be perfectly honest I waver back and forth on this one.

[ilya]

Is it just me or did CO make a horrid call?

[kevstreet]

[ QUOTE ]
Is it just me or did CO make a horrid call?

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree.

[Burno]

I think this is a definite fold. Every reasonable combination of hand ranges for the other three players makes pushing -EV.

I think assuming the big stack is sophisticated enough to fold to preserve the bubble is a bit generous in a $22.

[kevstreet]

[ QUOTE ]
I think assuming the big stack is sophisticated enough to fold to preserve the bubble is a bit generous in a $22.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was going to make a comment in the original post that I can count on one hand how many times at a $22 SnG that I felt a player at this level was sophisticated enough to make that fold. All of the other times I knew the players were 2+2ers.

[Burno]

Awful call. Expensive mistake. JJ and AK are easy folds there and probably QQ too. Hell, you should actually fold KK, though I don't know if I could do it here.

[kevstreet]

Burno, where do you draw the line on folding from UTG? Would you push A10? JJ?

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
minraise!

[/ QUOTE ]

At the risk of being results oriented I think I like this line.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think minraise is the worst line you can take here. Folding/limping/pushing are superior.

[45suited]

Relying on your opponents to make 'correct' folds after you push with A8o UTG, with a shortstack waiting to bust and two players behind you that can bust / cripple you, is not very good strategy, IMO.

I prefer to make plays where I benefit from my opponents' mistakes, not plays where their mistakes hurt me.

This whole thread had the tone of desperation on the OP's part, but the only desperate player should have been the BB.

[schwza]

i like a limp. big stack likely will not push any 2, and you're guaranteeing that BB does not get a walk. SB may be relatively tight, because he knows that he'll have to beat BB in a showdown getting 2:1, which would be great except that hero may come along after BB calls if he has something strong. (stronger than A8).

to those who said that that was not are so bad, i disagree. if bb gets a walk now, you're going to keep getting you blinds run over, and you'll fold strong hands. busting the bubble is huge +EV for you right now.

[kevstreet]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
minraise!

[/ QUOTE ]

At the risk of being results oriented I think I like this line.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think minraise is the worst line you can take here. Folding/limping/pushing are superior.

[/ QUOTE ]

Honestly, not to be wishy-washy, but I was going to change that post. Limping does the same exact job using 200 less chips.

[1C5]

i think minnraise is better than pushing here.

[Burno]

Jacks are an easy push. I'm folding AT and AJo, but will push all better aces. I'm pushing 88 and up and folding everything else.

This is all assuming the button will have pretty tight calling standards here and the big stack having a 55+ AT+ ish range. Basically if the big stack has looser calling standards, you need to have tighter pushing standards.

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
i think minnraise is better than pushing here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Perhaps. I think a minraise is just throwing 200 extra chips in the middle with no real benefit.

I think a limp is by far the best option here. Paying 200 to make sure BB has to play his hand is chips well spent IMO, especially since the read on big stack is that he knows how to play the big stack.

[Elektrik]

limping isn't bad, although given big stack's description I'd probably just be inclined to fold here. I really, really hate minraising, it's just too many chips. Pushing is not awful either IMO.

For those of you arguing that you need to be in this hand to eliminate SB, keep in mind that your A8o isn't exactly a massive favorite over a random hand, and the way big stack is playing can really screw you up here if you limp and he gets frisky, don't forget that you currently have 7BB, which is plenty of chips for now.

I'd personally just go with

fold>limp>push>minraise

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]

For those of you arguing that you need to be in this hand to eliminate SB, keep in mind that your A8o isn't exactly a massive favorite over a random hand, and the way big stack is playing can really screw you up here if you limp and he gets frisky, don't forget that you currently have 7BB, which is plenty of chips for now.

I'd personally just go with

fold>limp>push>minraise

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats not why hero has to be in the hand. Hero has to be in the hand for BB not to get a walk.

That A8 has some kind of showdown value is of course fine if big stack decides it's time to get to ITM and checks the hand down.

[Elektrik]

oh, point taken.

If SB will likely walk BB, then limp is in order. In my experiences I have rarely seen this however.

[The Yugoslavian]

Without reading the bajillion responses I think a limp here is good. In similar situations I sometimes prefer a minraise but, frankly, I'd rather not risk the extra chips in this spot and it isn't necessary to lean on shorty too much b/c he basically has 1BB.

If the blinds were folded to shorty with you holding such a hand, then it would be unacceptable, IMO.

I don't particularly like pushing, although it may be fine/good if I bothered to check out the math.

Oh, and folding here is fine too, I guess. But only if the big stack is anxious to get ITM.

Yugoslav

[kevstreet]

[ QUOTE ]


Oh, and folding here is fine too, I guess. But only if the big stack is anxious to get ITM.



[/ QUOTE ]

Yugo, therein lies the rub. To give you a brief recap, big stack is not in a hurry to get in the money. In fact, I really thought he would let BB walk here to preserve the bubble. Your limp suggestion seems to be the general consensus.