turn decision

[gopnik]

Do I raise this turn? Please, give your reasoning for your decision. Sorry, no reads on the villain.


Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 raises</font>, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (7.25 BB) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

River: (10.25 BB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, Hero calls, UTG+1 folds.

Final Pot: 12.25 BB

[dopp16]

3 bet the turn, not even close

[imported_The Vibesman]

I'm raising on the possibility that villian has JT or some similar holding. Check-raise with top pair seems likely. It's possible that he had T9 for the two pair. Also that he decided to raise his QJ str8 draw to "clean up outs." But there's no way of knowing anything like that now(esp. w/o reads), so I have to assume he had top pair and I have drawn out on him. I'm calling down a threebet.

[hemstock]

I would.
The only thing that makes sense to check-raise on the flop is a set (TT not likely since he didn't raise pf) or 99s and 55s, or a flush draw or even just top pair... I think you should throw in a raise on the turn and call down if he raises you.

[@bsolute_luck]

i like how you played it. i'd rather have a busted draw continue to bet into me than raise here and get 3-bet by QJ or 2-pair.

[jrz1972]

I would raise that turn. First, I'm probably ahead now so I want to raise for value. Second, I would like to lose UTG+1 if possible, so I want to raise for protection.

[jrz1972]

[ QUOTE ]
i like how you played it. i'd rather have a busted draw continue to bet into me than raise here and get 3-bet by QJ or 2-pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

If villain check-raised the flop with a draw (certainly possible), then you want to get your raise in now. He's not betting or calling the river unless he hits.

[imported_The Vibesman]

[ QUOTE ]
i like how you played it. i'd rather have a busted draw continue to bet into me than raise here and get 3-bet by QJ or 2-pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Heads up I would agree with this, FWIW. I like the raise with another opponent left to act.

[Redd]

As an aside, how many unknown Villains would everyone need in front of them on the flop to check this behind here?

[@bsolute_luck]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i like how you played it. i'd rather have a busted draw continue to bet into me than raise here and get 3-bet by QJ or 2-pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

If villain check-raised the flop with a draw (certainly possible), then you want to get your raise in now. He's not betting or calling the river unless he hits.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is true but is read-dependent. i have bluffers fire the last shot a vast majority of the time when they're OOP. however, if positions were reversed i agree.

the reason i don't raise here is i don't fold the river if he 3-bets this turn: do you guys? so with that asked, we're not improving ourselves by raising here if UTG is on a flush draw or an OESD. so i just call here.

SIDE NOTE: i've been playing weak-tight lately due to MASSIVE suckouts recently and a 200BB downswing /images/graemlins/mad.gif, so that could affect my thinking /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Rev. Good Will]

well, why did you call? trying for an overcall?

I think a raise is better here because we can either get maybe a bet from UTG+1 by overcalling, or upmost definitely another bet from villian by raising here

[Duerig]

That check raise trapped the whole field. You don't trap the whole field with TP. I would guess you're up against 2 pair or a set or a flush draw. Since he bet the turn, you're probably not up against a flush draw. I don't like raising the turn.

[POKhER]

It might be a nice (Accidental?) line actually.

Let me explain possibly why...

So we've lost 1BB(2sb on the flop) anyhow so now lets examine the later streets.

Note: +SD = + showdown

Villans hands/Actions to OUR TURN RAISE:
(This assumes villan folds losing hand after raise?)

Winning hands of villan(Who reraise us we fold): 2BB Lost+No SD.
Winning hands of villan(Call us down each street we bet):3BB(2 on turn, 1 river) + SD
Losing hand of villans(One pair) FOLD: 1BB won.

2BB lost + 3BB Lost + 1BB Won = 4BB lost over time?
If we add villan call down to losing hand 2BB(turn) + 1BB(river) = 3BB

1BB lost over time to better hand.

---------------------------

Villands hands/action to NO TURN RAISE

Losing hands of villan(Bet into us each street): Win 2BB + SD

Winning hands: 2BB (We call each street anyhow)

When ahead we win 2BB more, When behind we lose 2BB.

2BB Won + 2BB lost = 0BB lost/Won.

----------------------------

QUite alot of differents ways it can be played, Critique/Find errors in this logic/lines we/villan takes please

So turn raise is -EV over time no???
IS MY LOGIC FLAWED???

[numeri]

[ QUOTE ]
As an aside, how many unknown Villains would everyone need in front of them on the flop to check this behind here?

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm wondering this as well. This is not an obvious flop bet for me.

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
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As an aside, how many unknown Villains would everyone need in front of them on the flop to check this behind here?


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I'm wondering this as well. This is not an obvious flop bet for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would bet this flop. There's a reasonable chance we still have the best hand and I don't want to give a J or an 8 a free look at the turn. I think more than 4 opponents I would check behind.

If I get 1 caller who checks to me again I would bet/fold the turn. 2 callers I'm checking behind.

[numeri]

[ QUOTE ]
So turn raise is -EV over time no???
IS MY LOGIC FLAWED???

[/ QUOTE ]
You have a nice start, but you can't just add up the totals. You need to assign probabilities of each and weight each of them appropriately. (Which incidentally, is much too difficult to do in this case, since there are so many options - as you noted.)

[POKhER]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So turn raise is -EV over time no???
IS MY LOGIC FLAWED???

[/ QUOTE ]
You have a nice start, but you can't just add up the totals. You need to assign probabilities of each and weight each of them appropriately. (Which incidentally, is much too difficult to do in this case, since there are so many options - as you noted.)

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought i'd be wrong with my logic(As you've pointed out) or not enough lines.

Although, cant we add them assuming similar probabilitys?

Ah i guess its to complexed to come to a decision.

That post took me a while /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/blush.gif

I call down, i reckon we win the most(Blufs/Draws/1pairs) and lose the least(Straights/Twopair and maybe note down a player).

Although if we have no read... yeh im happy to call down. Raising and folding to a 3bet is just as expensive and he'll fold to another bet on river when hes behind and bet/raise when ahead!

Call down IMO.

[numeri]

[ QUOTE ]
I would bet this flop. There's a reasonable chance we still have the best hand and I don't want to give a J or an 8 a free look at the turn. I think more than 4 opponents I would check behind.

[/ QUOTE ]
This sounds reasonable. I'd be more willing to bet if the T was a Q. Villains will 'put you' on overcards fairly often here. And there are lots of hands that like T9 flops. I don't think your plan is bad, though. This one is on the edge for me.

[numeri]

[ QUOTE ]
Although, cant we add them assuming similar probabilitys?

[/ QUOTE ]
Sort of, but are all the options equally likely? (Not only that, a true EV calculation should always be -1&lt;EV&lt;1, since it's weighted by probabilities.)

[ QUOTE ]
Ah i guess its to complexed to come to a decision.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, this one has lots of options, but I don't think your analysis is useless! /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[ QUOTE ]
That post took me a while /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[/ QUOTE ]
There's nothing I hate more than taking 15 minutes to type a thoughtful post full of numbers and EV and all that good stuff to have somebody rip into or have it just ignored. I feel your pain. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[Redd]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would bet this flop. There's a reasonable chance we still have the best hand and I don't want to give a J or an 8 a free look at the turn. I think more than 4 opponents I would check behind.

[/ QUOTE ]
This sounds reasonable. I'd be more willing to bet if the T was a Q. Villains will 'put you' on overcards fairly often here. And there are lots of hands that like T9 flops. I don't think your plan is bad, though. This one is on the edge for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

You guys almost took the words right out of my mouth. I'd still bet it here, but it's on the very edge for me.

The flop did give alot of people excuses to call, and excuses to put us on overs. In addition to the stupid straight/pair possibilities, there's several overcards available that they could hold, encouraging a peel.

Having said that, I wouldn't be entirely surprised if everyone folded here because I see it a nontrivial amount of time. So I'm willing to bet here. One more caller pf (so &gt;=4 villains for me) and I'd probably take the freebie on the flop.

This is a good example of an SSHE concept I've been considering. Ed says, IIRC, that overcards like a moderately coordinated flop because villains are most likely to pay off with an equity deficit. I'm sure that a flop like this does induce several unprofitable calls on the Villains' part, but it seems like there only needs to be one pair out there to have us make an unprofitable bet. Since villains can have a wide range on the turn, it frequently leads to unprofitable bets there, too. To me it seems like it becomes quite expensive to determine when a gutshot was calling incorrectly and when you're betting with the worst hand, so I was wondering if anyone could elaborate why SSHE likes these flops the best.

[Asim]

i would 3-bet the turn, if he caps it on you.. ch/c the river because of pot size

[gopnik]

yeah, betting this flop was pretty close for me too. What tilted me towards betting is having K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif in my hand.