10/20 99 Turn Fold

[bobbyi]

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP <font color="green">(35/10/2.5)</font> raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, SB <font color="green">(57/14/1.3)</font> calls, <font color="#CC3333">BB <font color="green">(36/14/1.5)</font> caps</font>, MP calls, Hero calls, SB calls.

Flop: (16 SB) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, MP calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, MP calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (12.50 BB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, MP calls, Hero folds.

Yes?

[Lmn55d]

I would call the flop.

[Catt]

[ QUOTE ]
I would call the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah. I call the flop and probably see a showdown depending on what cards fall on turn and river.

[Surfbullet]

I think a flop call here is a bit poor and kind of results-oriented. This pot is HUGE on the flop, and we have a vulnerable holding. We want to do our best to fold out overcards and gutshots etc - and raising the PF capper is a pretty good way to scare ppl into incorrectly folding overs.

If the pot were smaller, or HU, i'd say calling down is fine. We have too much equity when we are ahead to just call down. Sure, it sucks to get 3bet when we are behind, but then we have to play some poker and make a tough turn decision - but we've made the greatest +EV choice.

NH bobby.

Surf

[Lmn55d]

Are you talking about sb here?? The other guys aren't folding for one more bet on the flop. Sbs gonna be getting over 10:1 if you raise and there's a good chance he has Ax or something else thats calling. And are overall equity isn't too great if we are ahead. And we are behind a lot. I really think call is better by far.

[Catt]

My reason for calling the flop is that I think raising will never fold anyone (maybe SB who checked, but certainly not the BB and almost certainly not the guy who called his flop lead). I'd rather see what the turn brings and if I really want to try and fold a 6-outer, maybe I'll raise the turn depending on the action. But the fact is I have crappy relative position, and I probably can't fold anyone no matter how hard I try. But I assure you it has nothing to do with being results-oritented.

[Victor]

well played. flop raise is by far the best line. judging by the action you are behindd and their are 9 even worse cards for you. nice fold and nice discipline. these folds keep away downswings.

[Surfbullet]

[ QUOTE ]
But I assure you it has nothing to do with being results-oritented.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fair enough.

Still, we have to do our best to protect our hand in this enormous pot. Just because it is difficult to do so does not mean it is correct.

say SB called along with his QTo. He sighs as it gets capped behind him, but calls anyway. The flop comes down all rags. PF capper bets, PF 3bettor raises him. "great," he thinks, "another overpair raising war. I fold."

These guys don't look at the pot and see 10:1. They see 2 guys who have raised at every opportunity. We've got to do our best to make hands fold incorrectly. MP may not be folding the flop, but if we want him to fold the turn we've got to start getting aggressive. Will he overcall on the turn if we raise the flop? maybe. Maybe not.

Also, despite the overcard calls being technically correct due to pot odds, we make $ off of every bet that goes in from a 4- or 6- outer.

Surf

[Catt]

I guess my point is that we can't protect our hand on the flop. We might be able to on the turn, but I'm not sure about that either. I don't think raising the flop and giving SB 10:1 (but with the possibility of the action being reopened behind him) is worth the extra small bet on the flop. No Ace is folding; overs with a /images/graemlins/spade.gif are noit folding; overs without a /images/graemlins/spade.gif are not folding in many players hands; there's a decent chance we're behind, which means we're not really making all that much from incorrect calls from SB or others.

My attitude is: we may be ahead and we may be very behind; raising doesn't offer a whole lot to us if we're ahead, and is bad if we're behind; let's see the turn and see what happens -- nothing we can do here gives us an advantage as we stand, and it certainly doesn't give us any info on others' hand ranges.

[Victor]

the flop raise is not really supposed to protect your hand in the sense that it will knock out draws. instead it serves a dual purpose: it reduces odds for all drawing hands which are primarily overcards. also, it lets you know where you are at which is and acccurate cliche. if you are 3bet you can be pretty damn sure you are waaaaaaaayyyy behind.

[bobbyi]

[ QUOTE ]
also, it lets you know where you are at which is and acccurate cliche. if you are 3bet you can be pretty damn sure you are waaaaaaaayyyy behind.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree with this part. I almost never "raise for information", but this was a case where I thought raising the flop would help make it easier to figure out what to do on the turn. If I call the flop, I think I usually get stuck calling down. But on the other hand, for the same amount I paid here, I could have made it to the river, so I'm not sure.

[Catt]

[ QUOTE ]
the flop raise is not really supposed to protect your hand in the sense that it will knock out draws. instead it serves a dual purpose: it reduces odds for all drawing hands which are primarily overcards. also, it lets you know where you are at which is and acccurate cliche. if you are 3bet you can be pretty damn sure you are waaaaaaaayyyy behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah - I'm using "protect" in the sense that either oour opponents fold correctly or call incorrectly. I'm not convinced a flop raise produces either outcome. If I am SB and I have overs (say I have QJs with a BDFD or not), I am getting 20:2 with the possibility of more bets going in. I'm not sure whether I am making a mistake calling or folding (depending on my views of others in the hand). I agree that I am more clear that I can call if it is not raised before me. But I dont thinka raise makes the odds for drawing unprofitable for anyone. It might make it less profitable; it might not. Until we have a better sense of one's hand, with a pot this size we really can't be expecting to produce an unprofitable draw for anyone.

[NLSoldier]

[ QUOTE ]
well played. flop raise is by far the best line. judging by the action you are behindd and their are 9 even worse cards for you. nice fold and nice discipline. these folds keep away downswings.

[/ QUOTE ]

i wish i knew how to make these folds.

nh bobby.

[jt1]

You have to be ahead here 65% of the time to make calling down or protecting your hand profitable. I don't think bb with those numbers is capping AQs often enough to make either of those plays profitable. You can call it weak, but it's just playing the odds: I'd straight call the flop and fold the turn UI.

There is another reason why calling may be a better play than raising: you're raising for info and to increase your equity by charging the overs an extra sb and folding the small blind. Well, it's not such a bad thing if the sb stays in since that would convince bb to ease up on the turn.

2 other things: If either myself of MP1 or the bb had been raising a lot frequently then I would call down (or if bb had just taken a bad beat), but I did the the math and I'll have to rethink that. It indicates that if you're not sure that you're behind then you should raise, call and fold the turn UI. However, there are a whole lot of other variables in there, too. For example, how often will you be pushed off a by a weaker hand (probably only very rarely, but if the bb is on tilt???). How often will the small blind call one sb?

[jt1]

not 65% of the time - i meant more like 40% of the time.

[beachbum]

[ QUOTE ]
let's see the turn and see what happens

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, if you just overcall the flop most likely the SB will call closing the action. Either way it's 3 or 4 to the turn. What's your plan if BB leads out a A,K,Q,J, or T turn? Call down if MP folds? What's your plan if BB leads out a 8,7,6,5,4 or 2 turn? I just wanted you to be more specific on your actions when you said you'd "see what happens" on the turn.

By reflex I'd raise this flop, but wondered your turn plan.

[Derek in NYC]

[ QUOTE ]
I would call the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would definitely raise the flop. I know a lot of people dont like "raising for information", however this hand is an excellent example of where raising for information makes sense. Hands like AK will slow down (unless they have a live draw to go with the overs), and raising the flop does a good job of defining your hand: are you up against an overpair who often three-bets, or is he drawing with big cards? If a person three-bets, then leads a 4th street blank, this is an easy fold with a middle pair above the board. If the person slows down, you can generally bet for value unless a scare card falls. Lots of 5/10 SH LAGs will shut it down if shown aggression on a raggedy flop coming from a pre-flop reraiser.

[jt1]

Actually, hero only has to be ahead here closer to a fourth of the time. I suppose that without a real read bb could have AK, AQs here a fourth of the time. Considering that an AQ and AK/images/graemlins/spade.gif should 3 bet here, I wonder if calling down vs raising the flop is better, here. I doubt it: there's only 2 hands out of 1326 possible that could move you off the best hand.

[Subfallen]

Very easy. If by some miracle you're ahead, 3's, K's, A's, spades kill your hand...