You're gonna love this....

[CardSharpCook]

Hero is MP3 with T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. Recently moved to the table, have 11K chips. Raise to 1800 (600/300 blinds). CO pushes. 6K to me, 10.5K in the pot. That's 1.75:1. Your play, sir?

[Lloyd]

Easy fold for me. You're not getting good enough odds for that hand. If you lose you'll go from a shortish stack to a trouble stack.

[elcheapo]

You took my spot when I got knocked out in 475th place and there was not a lot of resteals going on at that table so hands you want like 22-77 are not going to be there.

[suited_ace]

Easy fold. The odds just aren't on your side, man...

[CardSharpCook]

[ QUOTE ]
You took my spot when I got knocked out in 475th place and there was not a lot of resteals going on at that table so hands you want like 22-77 are not going to be there.

[/ QUOTE ]

hmm, I guess that is the question, just how high is his resteal range? A range of 22-AA AKs-ATs, AKo-AJo, KQs, makes this a call. Of course, I have only mental calculations available and gave myself an equity of about 38% which also makes this a call.

[CardSharpCook]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy fold. The odds just aren't on your side, man...

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah? Do some math. Don't bother posting here if you're not gonna do the work.

[fnurt]

I don't see any way CO can be expected to resteal with hands like ATs, AJo, etc. If you were the button and one of the blinds was pushing, sure.

[benneh]

I posted a similar hand earlier. I was getting slightly better odds than you are and I had a stack that could sustain a loss. This one is pretty close, though I would probably tighten up his range since you have no rep at this table and his M is small, but not so small that he would have to make a desperation move here with any ace or any pair. If calling and losing here would leave me with more than just 3.5k (maybe somewhere around 6k) i'd call, but given these conditions I fold.

I also doubt he's on a resteal with the button and blinds to act behind him. he's got nothing to defend here, and with the chance he could be up against a real hand here (or with the 3 left toact behind him) he'd probably just fold instead of restealing.

But what do i know..

fold, more so due to your stack size more than anything else.. I would take a shot given 1.75:1 with a bigger stack, but right now I'd just want to conserve my chips and pick my spots

Also, raising 4xBB instead of 3 would have made the call decision easier if someone went over the top

[betgo]

I probably call, but it is somewhat read dependent. Have you been raising a lot, and does he think he can make you fold?

I don't know why people say the odds aren't there. You are better than 1.75-1 unless you are against 88-AA, x8, or xT. It is like 1.5-1 against two higher cards, 2-1 against ATo, and 4.3-1 against JJ. There needs to be some chance villain has 22-77, A2-A7, or some suited connector/gapper of his own to make this EV+.

Also depends if you want to gamble. I generally do. I want a big stack I push around and maybe make the big money. I also don't mind a small stack I can make tons of moves with.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, raising 4xBB instead of 3 would have made the call decision easier if someone went over the top


[/ QUOTE ]

Is this an advantage?

[Lloyd]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You took my spot when I got knocked out in 475th place and there was not a lot of resteals going on at that table so hands you want like 22-77 are not going to be there.

[/ QUOTE ]

hmm, I guess that is the question, just how high is his resteal range? A range of 22-AA AKs-ATs, AKo-AJo, KQs, makes this a call. Of course, I have only mental calculations available and gave myself an equity of about 38% which also makes this a call.

[/ QUOTE ]
Against that range you are a 62-38 dog (like you said). That's 1.63 to 1 and you're getting 1.75 to 1 odds. To me, that's a pretty close decision and because of your stack size I would fold. If you had more chips or fewer chips I would call but you can fold with a very playable stack here.

I also don't think he's making that re-raise with smaller pairs. After all, he's not desperate, you're raising from MP, he's in the CO with 3 left to act. Take away the smaller pairs and you're a 2 to 1 dog and are clearly not getting sufficient odds.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
Against that range you are a 62-38 dog (like you said). That's 1.63 to 1 and you're getting 1.75 to 1 odds. To me, that's a pretty close decision and because of your stack size I would fold. If you had more chips or fewer chips I would call but you can fold with a very playable stack here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't agree with the playing safe and keeping an OK stack approach. It makes you feel better, but doesn't win the big money.

I also don't like to fold to a reraise in a borderline situation, because it encourages more reraises.

However, I am not sure about the math with ranges. First of all, nonpaired hands are much more likely than paired hands. Second of all, strong hands are more likely to push than marginal hands in the range. QQ is always going to push but 22 might not. The choice of hands is also not exact: I don't know if 22 or 33 are pushing very much, but KJ or JTs might. There are a lot of variables, and I don't think we can say it is 1.63 to 1.

[sirio11]

[ QUOTE ]
Hero is MP3 with T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. Recently moved to the table, have 11K chips. Raise to 1800 (600/300 blinds). CO pushes. 6K to me, 10.5K in the pot. That's 1.75:1. Your play, sir?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is why you don't raise with marginal hands when M=12

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
This is why you don't raise with marginal hands when M=12


[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I wouldn't play that way unless the table was really tight. With that stack size, I am going to play more solidly, and I am looking more to make a resteal than a steal.

This is one reason I don't mind gambling. With either a larger or a smaller stack, you can play much more aggressively.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see any way CO can be expected to resteal with hands like ATs, AJo, etc. If you were the button and one of the blinds was pushing, sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can see a lot of people reraising with those hands while having only 10x the BB and facing a raise from 2 off the button (I think the raise was from 2 off, not sure what MP3 means)

[CardSharpCook]

Sirio, you're probably right about the initial PF raise.

I made the call. Here is why:
1) CO's AI range really is that wide, and I believe it may even be wider. In fact, that he turned over AJs indicates that he had a wider range than I gave him credit for (though AJs does fall within the range I gave.)

2) I have the pot odds, though it is nearly a coin flip (as that relates to pot odds, not winning %)

3) I wanted it to be clear to the table that I'm not folding if I feel I have the odds to call. T8s and 1.75:1 pot odds makes that statement pretty clear.

4) I had just restolen with 45s. This probably effected my decision in a negative way.

5) I'm damn tired of folding. Especially PF. This AI-all-the-time game annoys the bejezzus out of me. If you want to flip coins, fine. We'll flip coins.

6) I fold here and I am an average stack. I call and win, I am double the avg stack and have room to play the aggressive game that I am most comfortable with.

7) I'm tired of playing the tight/conservative game.

These emotional and rational reasons encouraged me to make a neutral short-term EV decision which I can't say that I regret. Sadly the AJ was of my suit. Two more diamonds fell, but neither of us paired. I battled back to 6K with 4/800 blinds and lost to an LP push of JTo to my 66.

CSC

[ QUOTE ]

1) CO's AI range really is that wide, and I believe it may even be wider. In fact, that he turned over AJs indicates that he had a wider range than I gave him credit for (though AJs does fall within the range I gave.)


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't want to be rude (I very much respect your posts, and I hope you continue to make them), but I think that there's a lot of these types of incorrect statements in the forums, so I'm gonna start pointing it out.

Let's say there are three possible hands: 1, 2, and 3. Your opponent is pushing either with only hand one or with both hand one and hand two; each range is equally likely. Your opponent pushes and you call. He turns over hand 1. Now, the odds that he was on range = {1} is 67% and the odds that he was on range = {1,2} is 33%.

Obviously, I've oversimplified, but in general, when your opponent turns over a hand, it is more likely that he was on a higher range of hands that includes that hand than the lower range. Of course, this doesn't factor in reads, but neither did your statement.

That said, good call (I think), good hand to post, and please continue to post.

[ QUOTE ]

Also, raising 4xBB instead of 3 would have made the call decision easier if someone went over the top

[/ QUOTE ]

This is faulty logic. Example: if you have 72o on the SB and you know that the BB is only gonna raise with AA and will fold with everything else, should you minraise him or bet like 3/4 of your stack so that you'll be getting correct odds to play if he plays back?

[CardSharpCook]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's say there are three possible hands: 1, 2, and 3. Your opponent is pushing either with only hand one or with both hand one and hand two; each range is equally likely. Your opponent pushes and you call. He turns over hand 1. Now, the odds that he was on range = {1} is 67% and the odds that he was on range = {1,2} is 33%.

Obviously, I've oversimplified, but in general, when your opponent turns over a hand, it is more likely that he was on a higher range of hands that includes that hand than the lower range. Of course, this doesn't factor in reads, but neither did your statement.

[/ QUOTE ]

The first half of your statement seems to imply weighting hand ranges. I agree with this, and don't do it enough. What I should do is this:

If villian has X, he will push X% of the time:
AA-77, AKs/o, AQs/o: 100%

AA-22, AKo-AJo, AKs-ATs, KQs/o: 80%

AA-22, AKo-A2o, AKs-A2s, KQs-K9s, KQo-KTo, QJs/o, suited connector: 30%

NE2: 4%

My equity vs Range1: 32.1%
vs 2: 37.7%
vs 3: 41.5%
vs 4: 52.3%

32.1*1.0+ 37.7*.8+41.5*.3+52.3*.04 = 76.8/2.14 = 36%

So, my weighted Equity based on these numbers is 36%

The second half of your statement is unclear, but I think I see what you are saying. That AJs falls in all 4 categories makes it slightly more likely that he was, in fact, operating in category 1.

[Lloyd]

I think the more important questions are:

Given your mediumish stack size, is increasing variance for variance sake a good idea? You've brought up a lot of meta-game issues which are important. But how relevant are they when it means taking your stack from a workable level to one where you're in push or fold mode?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Let's say there are three possible hands: 1, 2, and 3. Your opponent is pushing either with only hand one or with both hand one and hand two; each range is equally likely. Your opponent pushes and you call. He turns over hand 1. Now, the odds that he was on range = {1} is 67% and the odds that he was on range = {1,2} is 33%.

Obviously, I've oversimplified, but in general, when your opponent turns over a hand, it is more likely that he was on a higher range of hands that includes that hand than the lower range. Of course, this doesn't factor in reads, but neither did your statement.

[/ QUOTE ]

The first half of your statement seems to imply weighting hand ranges. I agree with this, and don't do it enough. What I should do is this:

If villian has X, he will push X% of the time:
AA-77, AKs/o, AQs/o: 100%

AA-22, AKo-AJo, AKs-ATs, KQs/o: 80%

AA-22, AKo-A2o, AKs-A2s, KQs-K9s, KQo-KTo, QJs/o, suited connector: 30%

NE2: 4%

My equity vs Range1: 32.1%
vs 2: 37.7%
vs 3: 41.5%
vs 4: 52.3%

32.1*1.0+ 37.7*.8+41.5*.3+52.3*.04 = 76.8/2.14 = 36%

So, my weighted Equity based on these numbers is 36%

The second half of your statement is unclear, but I think I see what you are saying. That AJs falls in all 4 categories makes it slightly more likely that he was, in fact, operating in category 1.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's actually not what I was saying at all, but I like it /images/graemlins/smile.gif. Actually, if you read the mid-high stakes NL forum, they're very big on this. (I think what you caught onto was that I waved away weighting hand ranges because it makes the math more annoying /images/graemlins/smile.gif.)

My point was entirely what you this:

[ QUOTE ]
That AJs falls in all 4 categories makes it slightly more likely that he was, in fact, operating in category 1

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's important to realize this because you should be constantly adjusting your thoughts on what hand ranges play what ways and how often they do it. Logic like what I pointed out gets in the way of that.