Flop squeeze with bottom two

[jhall23]

What do you think of this squeeze play? PFR in this hand is pretty tight and has raises very infrequently PF. I'm not psyched about bottom two here, but everyone seems weak. Good spot for this or spewing?

Party Poker Pot-Limit Omaha High, $0.25 BB (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP3 ($62.40)
CO ($23.70)
Button ($5.20)
SB ($19.55)
Hero ($31.80)
UTG ($2.85)
UTG+1 ($28.45)
MP1 ($18.15)
MP2 ($25)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to $0.5</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $0.25.

Flop: ($2.10) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets $1</font>, MP3 calls $1, Button calls $1, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $7</font>

[joewatch]

You really want to risk 25% of your stack here? These low limits are all about peddling the nuts.

[Acesover8s]

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You really want to risk 25% of your stack here? These low limits are all about peddling the nuts.

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Ok, so what do you put his opponents on that beats him?

The raise is automatic, if you're not going to raise, fold. There are no safe turn cards, so win it now, or get it shorthanded at least.

[jhall23]

Yeah, that "gay" raise (thanks Stewart) PF by this tightwad says to me he has some decent cordinated high card hand or big pair type hand and is trying to build a pot if he hits. Then that 1/2 pot bet followed by all the calls is really weak. Since I have bottom two and noone has gotten aggressive I think I have the best hand here alot, though I really want to win the pot right away.

And I do try to build the nuts as much as possible in these baby games but I'm still trying to take any +EV situation I can get. This felt like one to me but I wanted some feedback. Total peddling bores me too much and I don't want to start bad habits when I try some bigger games soon.

[TheRempel]

It's a good aggressive move.

[Filip]

At a first glance i didnt like it, but after doing some thinking i think it is good. Like aces said, what can he possibly have that beats u.

[twolf]

[ QUOTE ]
At a first glance i didnt like it, but after doing some thinking i think it is good. Like aces said, what can he possibly have that beats u.

[/ QUOTE ]

At first glance I also didn't like it and thought it through and still didn't like it. You make it sound like it's heads up but the pfr bet and was called by two people and then raised by the OP.

The pfr may fold but the other two are not folding any hand that's winning or any good draw. If somebody has top pair with an 8 and a flush draw hero is in trouble if he's going to bet out pot on the turn.

I think this is bad because it puts you in awful shape if called by one or worse two opponents having to bet the turn with this crappy hand. If you're not allin when you bet the turn then you will be on the river and if two people chase you down the odds of you having the best hand by then are terrible and money will be so shallow by then that they should call with anything.

It is a good aggressive move, but maybe not for that level of play. You very likely do have the best hand on the flop, but you really have to win that pot on the flop. With a weak raise and 2 callers, someone is fishing for a flush/straight. There isn't a single card that you would like to see on the turn, except maybe 2h or 2c. 9 times out of 10 you will get at least one caller and at this level someone may call your pot sized bets all the way to the river with just a flush draw. If that flush draw also has an 8 or 4, they have a huge number of redraws to a better hand.

It just seems like the type of situation where you can only win a small pot and lose the medium/big pot. What do you do here on the turn? Check/fold to any bet? Pot it again?

[jhall23]

[ QUOTE ]
It is a good aggressive move, but maybe not for that level of play. You very likely do have the best hand on the flop, but you really have to win that pot on the flop. With a weak raise and 2 callers, someone is fishing for a flush/straight. There isn't a single card that you would like to see on the turn, except maybe 2h or 2c. 9 times out of 10 you will get at least one caller and at this level someone may call your pot sized bets all the way to the river with just a flush draw. If that flush draw also has an 8 or 4, they have a huge number of redraws to a better hand.

It just seems like the type of situation where you can only win a small pot and lose the medium/big pot. What do you do here on the turn? Check/fold to any bet? Pot it again?

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Depends on how many people are still in the pot with me on the turn, who they are and what the card is. No matter what I will fold if called and a spade drops. If I get more than one caller I will check/fold many cards. I don't think anyone has a set here as they would probably raise this flop. The only one that would make sense to me would be 8's with the nut flush redraw. So I think I am probably good on the turn with a 2,3 or 4 depending on what action I see after my c/r.

One odd thing at these levels is that people often don't think in terms of "I'm getting 2:1" but instead think "I have to call a bet of $7". With the dead money I was able to check raise a good amount and thought I had a real good chance to pick up the pot (around the 50% I need to break even) and if not get it down to HU.

If I do get it heads up it seems like they would have the flush draw a high percentage of the time. Even if they have the 8 + the draw and will draw out on me a good amount I still have plenty of equity and can value bet the turn. Obviously the more people in the more possiblilties that the turn card makes someones hand and I will probably just concede the pot.

[jhall23]

Some mixed replies on the flop move, but I'm glad it didn't come back with everyone saying it was bad.

So anyway got a pretty decent result with it. PFR call's the c/r and everyone else folds. After he calls I think that there are some turn cards that I can now value bet and I think I got one.

Party Poker Pot-Limit Omaha High, $0.25 BB (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP3 ($62.40)
CO ($23.70)
Button ($5.20)
SB ($19.55)
Hero ($31.80)
UTG ($2.85)
UTG+1 ($28.45)
MP1 ($18.15)
MP2 ($25)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to $0.5</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $0.25.

Flop: ($2.10) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets $1</font>, MP3 calls $1, Button calls $1, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $7</font>, MP1 calls $6, MP3 folds, Button folds.

Turn: ($18.10) T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $11</font>

What range of hands would you now put PFR raiser on? I think he very likely has the flush draw probably with a little help like an overpair. The Tc looked like a perfect card where I can now value bet. If he fold's great but I think I'm probably ahead of his hand range now as well and can stand a call. Do you agree/disagree with the turn bet, if you agree what other non-spades would you bet here?

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What range of hands would you now put PFR raiser on? I think he very likely has the flush draw probably with a little help like an overpair. The Tc looked like a perfect card where I can now value bet. If he fold's great but I think I'm probably ahead of his hand range now as well and can stand a call. Do you agree/disagree with the turn bet, if you agree what other non-spades would you bet here?

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I think the turn bet is fine. What non-spade would you not bet? Unless you can put him on a specific high pocket pair, there really isn't a turn card that you shouldn't be betting. If the Kd fell, are you suddenly going to give him credit for K-K-x-x and check. That would seem really weak.

Even if a spade fell, you might consider a blocking bet. Some might call there with naked A-A-x-x and just give it up when the flush hits.

BTW, C/R the nut flush draw after weak betting on an uncordinated board is one of my favorite moves, as it helps to get action from people with lower flushes if the turn completes the flush since they have now put you on a set.

[jhall23]

That's what I was trying to figure myself, if there were any non-spades that would be dangerous to bet. Well the 8 I would probably give up cause I think he has an overpair to go along with the draw often. I would check and hope for a free river. Given villian's tightness I bet he has the nut flush draw when he is drawing so I can see maybe folding an A. Anything J or under I can't see a reason not to bet. The min-raise PF from someone who hasn't raised at all in a decent amount of hands to me probably means a pair of Q's or better trying to build a pot. But since I wouldn't know what pair I think I may have to bet them anyway.