quick PF poll

[newhizzle]

hero is UTG+1 with K /images/graemlins/club.gifQ /images/graemlins/club.gif
villian limps UTG, his stats are 12/3/2, but he is surprisingly loose post-flop and does not like to lay down hands like UI AQ
now normally this is an easy raising situation, but do we really want to isolate this guy, how often do we have the best hand?

[JacksonTens]

Can people who posted limp, please state why? Sure there are some benefits, but I think KQs is a premium holding, and its not like rockmaster raised?

JT /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[newhizzle]

i actually dont know what the correct answer is, i would also like to hear the reasoning behind both sides

i can come up with reasons for both, but id like to see what people have to say about this one

[newhizzle]

well since noones replied i guess ill list my reasoning behind both plays:

raise: if you are in a fairly loose game and can expect to get a lot of cold-callers you will have an equity edge, if UTG was more weak-tight postflop, by taking the lead preflop you may be able to knock him off of a better hand, it is possible that you have him beat, and of course, KQs is a raising hand

limp: i dont know exactly what the top 12 percent of hands are, but it is likely that he isnt limping with many hands that you can beat, just off the top of my head i would assume a weak tight's min limping range is something like 77, KQs, AJs, and AQo, this may be wrong. it is probably not a good idea to isolate him if he is not likely to lay down a hand like UI AQ, and it may be better to encourage a multiway pot with your hands drawing characteristics.

thoughts?

[donny5k]

How is KQs a premium holding against a 12vpip guy who limped UTG? His most likely holdings are JJ-TT (maybe QQ and 99) and AK/AQ. You aren't going to outflop him enough with this hand (and since he's somewhat aggressive postflop you'll have to pay off some when you're dominated). He only raises 3% preflop, he could even be limping AA and KK UTG. You don't want to be heads up against any player with KQs if their range is a 2:1 favorite over you and the reverse implied odds cancel a lot of the times when you outflop him. Unless he plays predictably and we can avoid paying off on some boards this has to be a limp. You are much better off playing in a multiway pot with this hand than heads up against a dominating range. If the read were instead that he plays weakly postflop and folds too much, raising would be better than in this situation I think.

[donny5k]

These ranges are too loose for the villain described. If he was 12% VP$IP in UTG position only, then they might be about right. He is 12% overall, and unless his standards don't change with position, he is probably playing very tightly in early position. This means he is probably folding hands like AJ and 88.

[newhizzle]

any raisers want to comment?

[Entity]

If I've got a decent sample on this guy, I'm limping and going for some hot & heavy multiway action.

[sy_or_bust]

It's a clear call in this extreme scenario. Villain's range is AK/AQs KQs QQ-TT or thereabouts, and you have no fold equity on ragged flops.

[Shillx]

Limp holla

Why no fold option? /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

[donny5k]

I don't understand how raise is winning in the poll. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[newhizzle]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand how raise is winning in the poll. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

especially since noone is bakcing up their votes with reasoning for it

[jason_t]

http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y73/jason_t712/pfrpoll.jpg

So >69% of this forum is retarded? /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[Dagger78]

I think the UTG limper is limping with alot of hands that put you in bad shape or you are even money against. With stats that tight he's limping AQ, JJ-TT possibly even AK. Limp and hope to start a limpfest.

[TheHip41]

[ QUOTE ]
i actually dont know what the correct answer is, i would also like to hear the reasoning behind both sides

i can come up with reasons for both, but id like to see what people have to say about this one

[/ QUOTE ]

I raise, because ppl at 2/4 love to call with trash. I raise because even if UTG has 99, im still going to have more equity than the trash cold callers behind me. And if you flop nothing, and he starts coming at you, it won't be too hard to get away from.

[donny5k]

You realize that if you are dominated by villain then you are making him money by raising and not you?

Edit: to clarify:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 26.8785 % 26.36% 00.52% { KdQd }
Hand 2: 46.2487 % 45.45% 00.80% { AsKh }
Hand 3: 26.8728 % 26.26% 00.62% { random }

[TheHip41]

[ QUOTE ]
You realize that if you are dominated by villain then you are making him money by raising and not you?

[/ QUOTE ]


You realize that he doesn't have you dominated everytime you play. 12% of hands is alot. I raise 11% of my hands preflop. I raise A6s in late position, I raise 88 UTG, I riase KJo after a limper in later position. 12% is alot. Even if it's 10%, KQs is better than a lot of those hands. He does not have AA, or KK, or AKs. He 'might' have AKo, AQs or AQo. What other hands are you dominated by? He might have TT, 99, 88, AJs, ATs, AJo, KQo KJs, Axs. Seriously, if he has a VP of 6% over 1000 hands, that's different, but 12 is not THAT small.

On a related note, my VP is about 16, and there are tons of hands that KQs is favored over.

[donny5k]

His VPIP is 12% overall, not UTG.

Edit: Let's say his range is AKo, AQs, AQo, and 99-JJ.
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 34.6007 % 34.16% 00.45% { KdQd }
Hand 2: 44.3515 % 43.91% 00.44% { JJ-99, AQs, AsKh, AQo }
Hand 3: 21.0478 % 20.50% 00.55% { random }

[TheHip41]

[ QUOTE ]
http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y73/jason_t712/pfrpoll.jpg

So >69% of this forum is retarded? /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[/ QUOTE ]


What hands 'will' you raise UTG+1 when an UTG VP of 12 limps in?

AA-JJ for sure

But what about AKs, AKo, AQs, AQo, KQs, KQo, TT, 99, AJs, AJo, ATs?

What won't you raise that you normally would.

If you are playing 2/4, which newhizzle is.

[TheHip41]

[ QUOTE ]
You realize that if you are dominated by villain then you are making him money by raising and not you?

Edit: to clarify:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 26.8785 % 26.36% 00.52% { KdQd }
Hand 2: 46.2487 % 45.45% 00.80% { AsKh }
Hand 3: 26.8728 % 26.26% 00.62% { random }


[/ QUOTE ]

If you 'knew' he had AK, you'd fold. He doesn't ALWAYS have AK here.

[ QUOTE ]
If I've got a decent sample on this guy, I'm limping and going for some hot & heavy multiway action.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what I was thinking when I voted limp. But a missing part of the OP how is the rest of the table. Is a limp likely to start a limpfest? If so I like limping. If not, I maybe fold or raise.

12% is really tight. I've seen similar folks limp AQs and AKs utg.

[donny5k]

Read my edit above. I'd raise AK, AA-JJ, maybe TT since he will show down unimproved overcards. I wouldn't raise AQ.

[TheHip41]

[ QUOTE ]
His VPIP is 12% overall, not UTG.

Edit: Let's say his range is AKo, AQs, AQo, and 99-JJ.
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 34.6007 % 34.16% 00.45% { KdQd }
Hand 2: 44.3515 % 43.91% 00.44% { JJ-99, AQs, AsKh, AQo }
Hand 3: 21.0478 % 20.50% 00.55% { random }



[/ QUOTE ]


So if UTG limps, and I raise, and I get 3 players behind to call, like I always do at 2/4, you don't think I'll have 20%+ equity? I don't understand.

[donny5k]

If you do, it's only slightly more than 20% if that's his range. Pokerstove would take a while if I ran it with 3 random hands. The main idea is that you are between a 3 to 2 and a 2 to 1 underdog to his range. Raising only makes you a little (if any!) in straight equity, and it may drive out opponents that you'd prefer to have in the hand.

You get 3 callers EVERY time you raise in EP on party 2/4? Must be a different game than I was playing last month. For this to be true there would have to be 40-50% VPIP at these 2/4 tables, and my pokertracker stats say the average was like 35%.

There's a big difference between raising on the button after he limps UTG and several limpers follow and raising in UTG+1.

[TheHip41]

[ QUOTE ]
If you do, it's only slightly more than 20% if that's his range. Pokerstove would take a while if I ran it with 3 random hands. The main idea is that you are between a 3 to 2 and a 2 to 1 underdog to his range. Raising only makes you a little (if any!) in straight equity, and it may drive out opponents that you'd prefer to have in the hand.

You get 3 callers EVERY time you raise in EP on party 2/4? Must be a different game than I was playing last month. For this to be true there would have to be 40-50% VPIP at these 2/4 tables, and my pokertracker stats say the average was like 35%.

There's a big difference between raising on the button after he limps UTG and several limpers follow and raising in UTG+1.

[/ QUOTE ]


I attract cold callers like a moth to a flame. I don't understand it.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y73/jason_t712/pfrpoll.jpg

So >69% of this forum is retarded? /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Ahem.

raise raise raiseReaweawRAisee AWJEIaweji AAGGGRO TWOPLUSTWO RAISE ME LIKE HAND ME RAISE

[Chris Daddy Cool]

on the actual table i would raise, because i wouldn't have the notes on this player as a rock... /images/graemlins/confused.gif

however given that i do have the notes, i limp along.