Interesting river decision, CR AK high

[thesharpie]

UTG is 35/8 semi aggressive postflop. River bettor is a donk ass retard, 56/0 agression factor <.9 on flop and turn and 2.6 on river over 30 hands, likes to gaybet, stop and goes alot with crappy pairs.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG caps</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Button calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (20.50 SB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, Button checks.

Turn: (10.25 BB) J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Button calls, Hero calls.

River: (15.25 BB) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, MP3 folds, Button folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>...

[ejay]

I would not raise the river here. You still have one player behind you and i think that to much of the time you are losing here. You may be 3 bet by someone who is slowplaying and you will not make anyone fold a hand that you are beating.

[newhizzle]

[ QUOTE ]
I would not raise the river here. You still have one player behind you and i think that to much of the time you are losing here. You may be 3 bet by someone who is slowplaying and you will not make anyone fold a hand that you are beating.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think the purpose of this is to knock out UTG, but i dont like it, i think you are behind here too often to invest 2 bets

[lighterjobs]

the only problem with the river raise is that if the bettor is a donk ass retard he could be calling the turn with a jack. plus, with a cap preflop there could easily be a KQ, AQ in there somewhere.

[thesharpie]

[ QUOTE ]
the only problem with the river raise is that if the bettor is a donk ass retard he could be calling the turn with a jack. plus, with a cap preflop there could easily be a KQ, AQ in there somewhere.

[/ QUOTE ]

My read on these guys is they would've bet more if they had something. I don't see the donk checking through a jack on the flop, and I saw him fastplay flopped trips once before so he would probably raise the turn with them. The preflop capper probably has AK or TT.

I think the raise here is bad. If the bettor is in fact a donk ass retard as you described him, then he might not even fold a 7 or a 2. There are 16 Big bets in the pot after the donk's bet, so you would need to fold UTG and MP2 around one out of every 8 times you make this play for it to be profitable. I'm sure you can fold UTG that often, but MP2 would probably have to be on a stone cold bluff to push him out and I'm not sure that's happening 1 in 8 times when he is betting into a field this large on the river.

[thesharpie]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the raise here is bad. If the bettor is in fact a donk ass retard as you described him, then he might not even fold a 7 or a 2. There are 16 Big bets in the pot after the donk's bet, so you would need to fold UTG and MP2 around one out of every 8 times you make this play for it to be profitable. I'm sure you can fold UTG that often, but MP2 would probably have to be on a stone cold bluff to push him out and I'm not sure that's happening 1 in 8 times when he is betting into a field this large on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

The donk ass retard might call off with ace high. I agree he's probably not folding any pair.

I've got to at least call this river and if I do there's a good chance the preflop capper will, so the best I can do is chop. By risking another BB I might buy half the pot, and might even buy it all if he has TT and the donk has crap.

[ QUOTE ]
I've got to at least call this river and if I do there's a good chance the preflop capper will, so the best I can do is chop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree if you call you are hoping for a chop at best, which is why a call can't be right can it? You will be paying 1 BB to win 8.5 if the capper calls behind you and does in fact have AK, and the donk is on a bluff. But how often will both of those conditions be met. The capper as you have pointed out could also have 10 10, and our friend Mr Donkey is likely to have some kind of pair. So I think the raise is definately a better option, I just wonder how often this is a stone cold bluff from MP2. It has to be at least 1 out of 8 times and even some of the worst donks are aware that betting into a field this big with nothing is probably futile. Plus there is an added chance that your raise won't knock out the pf capper if he has 10s. After it was checked through on the flop and the field just called on the turn, a 35/8 at 2/4 is certainly capable of calling 2 cold on this river with 10,10 in a big pot like this.

I do think this is close, the pot is very big. I just don't know if it's big enough to make the play profitable.

[Guruman]

is there anything to be said for just calling preflop? AKo will need to improve to beat 4 people, and even if it pairs it may not be enough. With 3 cold callers in front of me, I imagine I'm looking at a lot of mid pocket pairs, idiots, and medium broadway suited hands.

Why not take a flop OOP and see how we feel about it?

[thesharpie]

[ QUOTE ]

Why not take a flop OOP and see how we feel about it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because we'd be giving up too much when there are 56 VP$IP coldcallers and such.

[W. Deranged]

In a pot this size I think this play is awesome. I have a hard time putting MP2 on a pair and I think that we may have a really sweet opportunity to promotion raise...

Nice hand, Sharps...