hypothetical

[montechristo]

you have just graduated college and have 25K to your name. You are a degenerate gambler and you know this. You have a shot to put all your money on the line (poker hand, sports bet, etc.) but you are gauranteed 92% to double your money. The other 8% of the time you lose it all. You hold a low paying job and the money is not easily replaceable. Bet or fold?

[Sniper]

[ QUOTE ]
but you are gauranteed 92% to double your money.

[/ QUOTE ]

Give an example of where you are "guaranteed" a 92% probability of doubling your money?

[pokerrookie]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
but you are gauranteed 92% to double your money.

[/ QUOTE ]

Give an example of where you are "guaranteed" a 92% probability of doubling your money?

[/ QUOTE ]

A person draws a card from a standard deck. Any card but A, he wins (doubles up). Any A, he loses (busts).

[pokerrookie]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
but you are gauranteed 92% to double your money.

[/ QUOTE ]

Give an example of where you are "guaranteed" a 92% probability of doubling your money?

[/ QUOTE ]

A person draws a card from a standard deck. Any card but A, he wins (doubles up). Any A, he loses (busts).

[/ QUOTE ]

And I bet. Especially if I'm a degenerate gambler.

[smoore]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
but you are gauranteed 92% to double your money.

[/ QUOTE ]

Give an example of where you are "guaranteed" a 92% probability of doubling your money?

[/ QUOTE ]

A person draws a card from a standard deck. Any card but A, he wins (doubles up). Any A, he loses (busts).

[/ QUOTE ]

And I bet. Especially if I'm a degenerate gambler.

[/ QUOTE ]

Damn, I'd put my house on that bet.

[Sniper]

[ QUOTE ]
A person draws a card from a standard deck. Any card but A, he wins (doubles up). Any A, he loses (busts).

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would anyone not holding a deck of Aces, give that bet?

[NobodysFreak]

[ QUOTE ]


Why would anyone not holding a deck of Aces, give that bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]

degenerate gambler

[/ QUOTE ]

[mosquito]

[ QUOTE ]
you have just graduated college and have 25K to your name. You are a degenerate gambler and you know this. You have a shot to put all your money on the line (poker hand, sports bet, etc.) but you are gauranteed 92% to double your money. The other 8% of the time you lose it all. You hold a low paying job and the money is not easily replaceable. Bet or fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem is assessing how likey the 92% is to be
accurate. In real life most decisions cannot be
quantified nearly that closely. A 92% sporting bet,
for example, would be considered a "lock". But in
fact sport bettors KNOW that there is no such thing
as a true lock, other factors can always come into play.

[Sephus]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you have just graduated college and have 25K to your name. You are a degenerate gambler and you know this. You have a shot to put all your money on the line (poker hand, sports bet, etc.) but you are gauranteed 92% to double your money. The other 8% of the time you lose it all. You hold a low paying job and the money is not easily replaceable. Bet or fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem is assessing how likey the 92% is to be
accurate.

[/ QUOTE ]

no. read the title of the thread. there is no problem there.

[miami32]

me toooooooooooooooo!

[VoraciousReader]

As long as I have no immediate purpose that the money is supposed to fill, I absolutely make this bet.

I won't bet with any money that I have an immediate need for, no matter how good the odds.

[mosquito]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you have just graduated college and have 25K to your name. You are a degenerate gambler and you know this. You have a shot to put all your money on the line (poker hand, sports bet, etc.) but you are gauranteed 92% to double your money. The other 8% of the time you lose it all. You hold a low paying job and the money is not easily replaceable. Bet or fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem is assessing how likey the 92% is to be
accurate.

[/ QUOTE ]

no. read the title of the thread. there is no problem there.

[/ QUOTE ]

No. Understand that even if you think its 92%, it probably
is not. Variables are frequently overlooked. Only if it
is a PURE math problem can you say it is exactly 92%.

[montechristo]

hypothetical, pure math. 92% is assured. you have rent and food paid for the next 3 months. bet or fold?

[mosquito]

Depends on life circumstances then. For a 20-something
it would be right for a high percentage of them. For others
it becomes less clear, although pretty tempting.

In my current circumstance, *probably*, like 92% of the
time it was offered. LOL.

[MyTurn2Raise]

25k isn't much money...might as well bet it...starting with 0k and 25k are not too much different on my utility curves

[Klepton]

i would bet, then if i lost, would tell every one of my friends about the bet and make them bet too, so that eventually we will be rich.

[4_2_it]

I'd throw my $25k in along with another $50k borrowed on a short-term basis from 'Vinnie the Shark'

[derick]

I'd bet 92% of the 25K

[Gorgonian]

I do not make this bet. I make hard rules about my bankroll management that I force myself to stick by to minimize my risk of ruin.

As long as we are being hypothetical, what if someone were to offer you 100% odds (they are unknowingly drawing dead) on doubling your money very soon after the above proposition? What if you didn't know this was coming? The possibility of making future profit or losing the ability to make future profit should be considered in this decision.

EDIT: But, then, I see this question wasn't directed at me, since I'm not a degenerate gambler (despite what my mother thinks).

[RowdyZ]

[ QUOTE ]
I do not make this bet. I make hard rules about my bankroll management that I force myself to stick by to minimize my risk of ruin.

As long as we are being hypothetical, what if someone were to offer you 100% odds (they are unknowingly drawing dead) on doubling your money very soon after the above proposition? What if you didn't know this was coming? The possibility of making future profit or losing the ability to make future profit should be considered in this decision.

EDIT: But, then, I see this question wasn't directed at me, since I'm not a degenerate gambler (despite what my mother thinks).

[/ QUOTE ]

Looks like someone has read TPAP.

I make the bet.

RZ

[r3vbr]

I make that bet with everything I own.

And also, consider a real-life scenario in wich a superrich bilionare proposes this deal to test human behavior (such as that movie in wich a bilionare proposes a normal woman millions to prostitute herself). someone here said that a 92% deal with those circunstances would NEVER be presented to you, but i think it can /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Supersetoy]

I make this bet.

And if I lose I keep making this bet by asking for "double or nothing" until I win.

And when I win, I keep going. Making 25K bets everytime. Maybe 50K to 200K if I'm feeling lucky. Maybe 500K if I get up that much. If I'm up, I keep playing until I get back down to 50K and then walk away, very tempted to play that 25K I'm up.

Where can I get this game? This 92% guaranteed win?

I dont see how you can ask a degen-gambler to not make this bet?

[Eaglesfan1]

Key word- HYPOTHETICAL

[xxx]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd bet 92% of the 25K

[/ QUOTE ]

[Pog0]

[ QUOTE ]
I make this bet.

And if I lose I keep making this bet by asking for "double or nothing" until I win.

[/ QUOTE ]

This brings an interesting follow up question to mind.

If you make the 25k bet and win, you are then offered to play double or nothing infinitely until you lose. You cannot play less than your entire savings at any point in time. How many times would you want to win before you stop? (If you lose, you no longer have the choice to play again, so that doesn't matter).