A6o TPTK vs tag oop

[Bodhi]

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Over 50 hands the villain is 15%, 8%pfr, 0 aggression (because he's only been betting/raising). I have no other 'read.'

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, Hero checks.

Flop: (2.33 SB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 caps</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.16 BB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[Bodhi]

Shameless bump. You all don't know what to do either, huh?

[newhizzle]

i would probly call down, but im pretty sure your beat, either by a set, an overpair, or a flush, folding cant be too bad

[gh9801]

C/f, some TAGs will limp a hand like JdTd, others will limp pocket pairs from early... either way, after this turn you're beating zero hands

[Bodhi]

...Hero folds.

I think I'm check folding this turn. I've been trying to figure out what our villain could have played like this that he limped UTG+1. 55-88 or maybe 99, two big diamonds or Ax of diamonds.... If he had flopped a set with 55 or 66 that's an awfully bullish line heads up, so those seem a bit less likely. So on that turn 77 just made a set, 88 or 99 is still ahead and might have a better flush draw and two diamonds have you drawing dead. Given we only have 50 hands on the villain here, but if he is a solid tag as they would hint toward, I'm not sure what other hands we can throw in here. I think you have to be behind, and your flush draw is rarely live.

[shark6]

I also check/fold the turn.

Nice 3-bet on the flop though, as it could easily have been a free card play with unimproved overs or a flush draw. But the flop cap says you're toast.

[Kailia Marie]

Hi everybody,

Check folding this flop is probably not correct because there are too many hands that you are drawing live against to fold. The main issue in reading this player is if he would cap the flop without a diamond. I think he would almost certainly cap it with a set and if he limped in with a big hand like AA-TT, he may be trying to overcompensate his missed preflop raise by putting in excess action postflop. Simply put, the pot is decent sized (6.16 bb's if villian bets), and your diamond outs could be good, as well as your two pair/trip outs.

You should check and call this turn and see what falls on the river, which will probably consist of betting out any diamond, ace or six and check folding offsuit blanks.

I haven't worked out the math here versus a probable range of hands, but I suspect calling the turn is a lot closer (if not +EV) then the rest of you think.

/images/graemlins/heart.gifKailia

[gh9801]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi everybody,

Check folding this flop is probably not correct because there are too many hands that you are drawing live against to fold. The main issue in reading this player is if he would cap the flop without a diamond. I think he would almost certainly cap it with a set and if he limped in with a big hand like AA-TT, he may be trying to overcompensate his missed preflop raise by putting in excess action postflop. Simply put, the pot is decent sized (6.16 bb's if villian bets), and your diamond outs could be good, as well as your two pair/trip outs.

You should check and call this turn and see what falls on the river, which will probably consist of betting out any diamond, ace or six and check folding offsuit blanks.

I haven't worked out the math here versus a probable range of hands, but I suspect calling the turn is a lot closer (if not +EV) then the rest of you think.

/images/graemlins/heart.gifKailia

[/ QUOTE ]

What are villain's probable range of hands? A 15/8 who is capping this flop after limping early position preflop seems to most likely have a set, overpair, or a flush draw (which hit on the turn)... or am I missing sometihng?

[Wired Jokers]

Would this line be bad?

[ QUOTE ]
Over 50 hands the villain is 15%, 8%pfr, 0 aggression (because he's only been betting/raising). I have no other 'read.'


Preflop: Hero is BB with 6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A /images/graemlins/heart.gif.

1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 5 folds, Hero checks.

Flop: (2.33 SB) 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)

Hero bets, UTG+1 raises, Hero calls

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Turn: (5.16 BB) 7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero checks, Villain bets, Hero check-raises, Villain three-bets, hero folds

Or

Hero checks, Villian bets, Hero check-raises, Villian calls

River: Rag

Hero bets ...

[W. Deranged]

How often is a 15/8 capping this flop without:

1. An overpair.

2. A set.

3. A nut/big flush draw (probably + overcards).

"Not that often" is the correct answer.

You're getting a little above 7-2 to call down here, which I doubt you're getting. Even when ahead you're dodging tons of cards which might not be obvious.

I think folding here is fine. Check-raising this turn is really silly as simply calling down costs the same amount. Leading out on the turn and folding to a raise might be right against certain opponents but my guess is that it won't be here.

Remember: 15/8s don't enter UTG with crap! I think we'll see 77/88/99 or something like AdTd very often here.

[Bodhi]

[ QUOTE ]
Check-raising this turn is really silly as simply calling down costs the same amount.

[/ QUOTE ]

[bawcerelli]

looks like villain has 555

[shant]

[ QUOTE ]
You should check and call this turn and see what falls on the river, which will probably consist of betting out any diamond, ace or six and check folding offsuit blanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

[lighterjobs]

check fold. most players aren't going to bet that type of flop too aggressively without a big draw or a set. imo, i think he flopped a set because he played the scary board so aggressively. the straight isn't really a possibility, but i think this would be a good laydown. if for some reason he checked the turn and a diamond came on the river, a check call would probably be appropriate.

[Nick C]

If he has a set, he can't have a diamond.

If he has an overpair, he might not have a diamond (and if he doesn't, you have lots of outs).

I'm checking and calling the turn. This doesn't commit me to calling down. I can still check-fold the river if I don't improve. Edit: However, annoyingly, this does possibly mean I'll be folding to 44/33 sometimes. In 50 hands, Villain hasn't done anything but bet and raise postflop, and I think those pairs are also possible holdings.

[kaidoy]

Why 3bet the flop ?
because he could be taking a free card with overs??? I dont think we'll see that all that often in such a small pot..

I would just call the flop raise and bet-fold any turn that didnt improve my hand, that includes this turn IMO

[gh9801]

I don't get why some people like c/calling the turn and seeing a river - it would be nice if someone who suggested this to say what hand range they're putting villain on to justify getting past the turn