Q9 hand...good fold or weak play?

[Obliky]

First some background,

MP1 is fishy 38/2/0.8 and his bets seem to mean the obvious.

Button is 34/5/1.8 and seems to be generally loose but not overly aggressive from what ive seen.

No point posting my stats because these guys arent paying attention anyway..but ive been playing TA.

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls, CO calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
UTG+2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO folds, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (10.75 BB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
MP1 checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, MP1 calls, Hero folds.

Thoughts?

[zuluking]

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Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

Fold pre-flop.

[TwoShedsJackson]

Q9s is worth the odd limp from MP3 if the table is passive preflop.

But this turn fold is not good - you're getting 12.75 to 1, you could have a better Queen than one of these guys, and you have five outs to a probable winning hand. I call and check call the river too.

[Obliky]

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[ QUOTE ]
Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

Fold pre-flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Im following the guidelines from SSH which advocates playing Q9s from mid position...this game is pretty passive too.

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But this turn fold is not good - you're getting 12.75 to 1, you could have a better Queen than one of these guys, and you have five outs to a probable winning hand. I call and check call the river too.


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I only just realised how many bets were in on the turn...doh. What a pointless post this has been...

Never fold that! I would assume a big pocket pair from the button, or a set, something he's trying to protect from the flush draw, but remember what SSH says: DON'T LET GO OF DECENT HANDS IN A BIG POT. Sure, you're probably behind at this point, but you have enough outs in that pot to outdraw. Giving up the 12 or 13-bet pot just for one or two won't be profitable.

I think the MP limp with Q9s is fine with two or three limpers in front. It's not a major EV leak if you can handle yourself postflop.

[istewart]

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Thoughts?

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Fold pre-flop.

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No way man. This hand is too good for this situation.

[istewart]

I think you can call the turn but I have not run any numbers yet. Preflop he doesn't raise much (although if your AF on him is over a significant number of hands than he is indeed fairly aggressive).

Once he raises preflop I'd give him a range of AA-TT, AKo/AKs, AQo/AQs, and maybe AJs/AJo if he likes raising a bit more in late position.

Once he reraises the flop I think his range his AA-QQ, TT, AQ, or AsKs-AsJs.

But on the turn he continues to bet, so we have to negate the fact that he has just a draw on the turn a bit, although 1) it is a monster draw and 2) there are a helluva lot of players who will not slow down with straight/flush combo draws.

So, for the turn.

AA - 6 (possibly 5 outs)
KK - 6 (possibly 5 outs)
QQ - 1 (0 outs)
TT - 3 (0 outs)

AsKs-AsJs - ~1 combined (around 30 outs)

(30 + 30 + 0 + 0 + 30) / 3 + 1 + 6 + 6 + 1 =

90/17 = ~5.3 outs

Obviously though MP1 often has a draw as well, further tainting your queens and nines. But getting 12.5:1 you only need about ~3.5 outs to continue so I think you should.

Call here and fold the river unimproved. If a spade hits and anyone is still betting it's an easy fold, and I assume that button will not bet an UI ace-high draw into two players on the river, so you don't need to worry about that.

[lufbradolly]

Preflop's fine.

Fold the flop.

[Fantam]

I think that you were probably behind on the turn, but button may have a Q with a weaker kicker than yours.

Getting almost 12:1, I would call the turn bet. You have the odds to improve to a better hand.

[2+2 wannabe]

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Preflop's fine.

Fold the flop.

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/images/graemlins/confused.gif

[string4]

*in the dark, critique at will )

I'm calling the turn, possibly behind, ready to fold river UI. I'm putting the Button on some overpair, A-J with a Q, or worst-case scenario, possibly a made set with some PP. I'm thinking the MP1 is on some flush or str8 draw.

The way I figure, calling the turn is 12:1, and you are closing off betting as a perk. I estimate 3.5 - 4 outs (avoiding helping flush/str8 and implied added on river), 10.5 to 1, so call and fold if UI on river.

(Really trying to improve this part of my game, so if I'm off, please comment!)

[POKhER]

*GRUNCH BY THE WAY*
Preflop: Seems ok, Mp3 with callers...

Were behind: AA/KK/QQ/AQ/KQ/QT so yeh besides AK/AJ/AT not much a PFR will beat(And his PFR isnt to high so assume nice hand if you have good smaple size?).

Ok, i suppose a fold is ok but if you want another line it might be:

Raise(Fold 3bet), Check river... Call 1 for SD depending on potsize/Whose still there/What card it is - BUT WE ARE HOPING HE CHECKS BEHIND REALLY(Pity we cant take free SD - position sucks).

Edited to add this: My "Fold is ok" is wrong, the pots huge and we have outs to 2pair i reckon.

[Obliky]

Thanks for the replies...tbh i stopped looking at this thread after i realised that its an easy call on the turn, but seeing as there has been some interest ill post the results:

River goes check, check.

MP player has JJ
Button has KJo for a busted straight draw

And im a moron for not calling on the turn... the only thing i can take from this hand is:

Whilst i count the pot size pre-flop and on the flop, i tend to discard the information on the turn if i have no obvious draws(e.g. flush/straight/etc). Clearly this is a very stupid thing to do, so i wont do it anymore /images/graemlins/laugh.gif